Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily News
The new crown virus epidemic has exceeded one million in two months, reaching 1.53 million people, and 80,000 deaths have been killed. The world has changed since then.Many discussions on the world order of the post -crown disease, international opinions are extremely different; a faction believes that the globalization that has already been fragile will be more minimal, and a faction pointed out that the new crown epidemic is just the significance of international cooperation.Repair.
The spread of the epidemic is so rapid that several development seems to be unavoidable.The first is that public health safety issues are valued, and the impact of global trade and investment is inevitable.Like energy and food security, the discussions on public health security at this stage also emphasize the discussion of the concepts of self -sufficiency and the stock of combat reserve.The self -sufficiency system of food and energy security is relatively clear, while the definition, scope, objects and methods of public health's security self -sufficiency rate is still in the brewing stage.In the future, it is more likely to have a reasons for nationalism and protectiveism to re -packaged and extend this self -sufficient thinking to other so -called strategic industries.Regardless of how the future countries define, any self -sufficiency mechanism is a system that rejected foreign goods and foreigners, running counter to the global supply chain, which is not conducive to cross -border trade and investment.
The second is that the epidemic allows the United States to pick up guns, making US -China confrontation more difficult.The crusade of the United States in economic and trade and technology confrontation is the intention of socialism with Chinese characteristics and national capitalism. In the past 30 years, pretending to be surrendered to international rules. In fact, it has continued to pour the country and has no means.Blocking outside the door.The United States believes that there is no way to restrict the existing world norms at all, so on the one hand, it is necessary to use confrontation punishment to change China, and he has to reshape world rules.Against this background, the epidemic made the guns picked up in the United States, not because the new crown virus came from Wuhan, but the style of the United States that China did not do things in accordance with international rules, which caused the epidemic to spread globally and lead to more than one million people infected.
The third is the acceleration of the global supply chain.Before the outbreak of the epidemic, the US -China economic and trade and technology confrontation had faced huge pressure on the Asia -Pacific supply chain, which had high participation in Taiwan.The new crown epidemic has once again highlighted the vulnerability of different supply chains.The people's disasters and natural disasters come (and natural disasters make human disasters more difficult), which will force the supply chain to re -examine the layout model that blindly pursue economic efficiency in the past, and incorporate more through decentralized sources, retracting outsourcing, etc. to ensure stable supply of supply stable supply.Consider.In addition to this spontaneous motivation for self -interest, governments of various countries to pursue self -sufficiency, coupled with the pressure of US -China trade and scientific and technological conflicts, will make the supply chain facing the direction of dispersion sources, raising rendering, near the market and other directions.Adjustment.
The structural changes that may occur in the era of crown disease in the above three post -crown diseases are possible. The possible situation is to synchronize and accelerate each other.However, if such a situation represents the end of globalization, it may be too light; more appropriately, it may be the adjustment of global definition.For example, the pursuit of medical self -sufficiency in various countries still requires tool machines and raw medicines from Taiwan; China's non -woven fabrics; American patents and German controllers.Another example is that after the supply chain is reorganized, the change is mainly to improve the concentration, rather than abandon the supply chain structure. Some supply links may be retired forever, but the new link will bring opportunities.
In the face of the changing bureau, the elasticity and softness of Taiwanese businessmen have always been not a problem. They should also take the initiative to grasp the opportunity to take this opportunity to correct past errors and seize the new global opportunities of post -crown disease.
