Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Recently, international oil prices have fallen huge. Brant crude oil price in recent months has fallen from 45.27 US dollars per barrel on March 6 to 22.74 US dollars on April 1, a decline of 50.2%, which greatly shocked the market.
Most people believe that recent crude oil prices have fallen, which stems from the dual blows with weak supply and demand -the main oil -producing countries have not reached an agreement to reduce production. In addition, the new crown pneumonia's epidemic has plunged the global economy, which prompted the demand for crude oil to fall sharply.However, the oil price dynamic report released by the Federal Preparation Bank of New York shows that since 2010, the predictive value generated by the supply and demand model as the backbone, of which the residual value of the change in oil prices cannot be explained by supply and demand; that is, supply and demand, supply and demandThe fundamentals only account for half of the fluctuation of oil prices.If it is observed from the various pipelines and methods of crude oil transactions, it is found that the recent decline in crude oil prices may have a huge decline in the options, the significant increase in the futures market transaction parts, and the risk -free model of crude oil producers.The decline is related.
Generally speaking, crude oil aversion can be used in three ways: First, the use of crude oil futures, that is, crude oil producers in a concentrated market in crude oil futures, and lock in the selling price of some time in the future by selling futures contracts to reach a hedgingPurpose.
The second is to avoid risks through crude oil exchange (SWAP).Different from crude oil futures, crude oil exchange is a store market transaction. Crude oil manufacturers have been safely safeguarded through exchange to obtain greater elasticity.Selling prices in the future.
Third, crude oil selection rights, it has a system contract that can be traded on the venue, and can also find a transaction opponent to establish risk aversion parts in the store market.However, due to the low cost of hedging than the futures, the right to avoid risk aversion has also been widely used by producers.For example, if financial institutions and crude oil manufacturers conduct options transactions, it is agreed that if the price of crude oil falls below a certain price in the future, it will ensure that the price of price is purchased.Losses caused by crude oil obligations will also sell futures in the crude oil futures market for hedging.As a result, as oil prices begin to fall, financial institutions will gradually sell more and more crude oil futures.Coupled with this dynamic adjustment process, most of them automatically calculate and adjust the location in time through the computer program, so as to produce the effect of helping the rise and fall, so that the choice transaction may exacerbate market price fluctuations.
In other words, when the crude oil futures market fell sharply, in addition to speculative traders emptied futures, these financial institutions like selling insurance to producers would also sell the risk of changing prices at the same time, thus enlarging the decline.More importantly, speculators will gradually reduce the number of emptiness due to the bottom of the price, but in order to sell the risk of the insurance institutions, the larger the decline will beMany, eventually caused oil prices to fall.This is the main reason for Benbo International's oil prices to collapse before the Saudi Kingdom has fallen production.
This situation is exactly the same as that of Brant from October 3 to December 24, 2018 from October 3 to December 24, 2018, which is exactly the same.Although the US sanctions on Iran's crude oil at that time were not as good as expected, and the output of the National Organization (OPEC) member states for oil output was not sure. In addition, the global economy had doubts that the supply surface lacked the power to support oil prices.In the case of 102,000 barrels per day, there is no reason for oil prices to fall.However, when investors ignited the decline in the financial market, a large number of financial institutions that sold crude oil insurance were triggered to sell a large number of parts of financial institutions, which accelerated the decline in oil prices, and caused the chain effect of panic and forced liquidation of speculators., Make oil prices falling away from the fundamental decline.
In short, in producers' preference for cheap risk aversion tools and the fragile structure of the crude oil market, the international crude oil market in the future will cause oil prices to plummet due to wind and grass.In order to prevent oil prices from falling from time to time, a feasible way is to imitate the practice of the country to produce countries more than 30 years ago, which will be determined by the production state to determine the fluctuation range of oil prices, and the establishment of organizations and funding to establish a fund to participate in the futures market.When the oil price is too low, the supply is pulled back from the market, and the supply is increased to maintain the oil price in the schedule, so as to avoid the expansion of the current futures and selection transactions on the change of oil prices.
