Zheng Weibin: Sino -US -Taiwan relations have collapsed from dynamic balance?

U.S. President Trump formally signed the AIA AIA's Initiative Act (referred to as the Taipei Act) in 2019 in 2019.The bill passed on March 4th and 11th in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.

The bill requires the US administrative department to assist Taiwan to consolidate diplomatic relations, participate in international organizations, and enhance the bilateral economic and trade relations of the United States and Taiwan.Since Tsai Ing -wen has served as the president of Taiwan, the diplomatic relations of the Republic of China have been declining, and the seven kingdoms have been reduced in more than three years.The introduction of the bill is the United States' reaction to Beijing's compressing Taipei international space.

Since the opening of the Sino -US establishment diplomatic relations in the 1970s, the US -US -Taiwan triangle framework has gradually taken shape.The United States has always played the role of the balanced person, allowing the Taiwan Strait to maintain the most favorable state.It has not changed today.

However, at this time, can the United States pass the bill at this time, can it still effectively maintain the effective interaction of the China -US triangle?

The bill was first proposed in 2018, but it ended because it failed to put it on the agenda.The bill passed this time is a long -term and self -proofed American Republican senator Cory Gardner and Republican members John Curtis.

Compared with the earliest version, although the 2019 version has increased the content of strengthening economic and trade relations and supporting Taiwan's participation in international organizations, it deleted what countermeasures the United States will take when Beijing hurts the Republic of China.

For example, in the 2018 version, it is clearly written that the United States will consider adjusting the diplomatic relations with the country for countries that intend to or have changed or downgraded Taiwan to Taiwan, and even suspend their economic assistance to its economic assistance.Related punishment measures were cut in the 2019 version.

In the 2018 version, it is emphasized that the United States will consider changing the economic, security and diplomatic exchanges with the country after negotiation with the country that takes serious or major actions and cause harm to Taiwan's security and prosperity.In the 2019 version, more balanced, abstract and empty vocabulary is used to encourage other countries to support Taiwan from a positive perspective.

In addition to the weakening and retreat, the conservative side is also shown in the chapter arrangement.It turned out that the content existed independently as the two chapters, and in the new version, it was only used as a small point in strengthening the chapter of the Taiwan bond.

Regarding the passage of the bill, Cheng Jianren, the former Representative of the Republic of China in the United States, said that in fact, the relevant content can be achieved using the original Taiwan Relations Law.So to some extent, it is more like a signal released by Washington to Beijing, which means that it is concerned and pressure on Beijing.This is in line with the usual practice of the United States.Prior to this, there were Taiwan Travel Laws involved in Taiwan, including Hong Kong Human Rights and Democratic Acts involved in Hong Kong.

But is the interaction and balance under the Triangle framework of the China -US and Taiwan still valid, or can it be maintained?

The spread of the coronary virus epidemic in 2020, and the impact of political and economic territories caused by it, may mean that the China -US triangle framework has collapsed from a dynamic balance.It is difficult to continue to maintain a good interaction under this framework in the future and maintain the stability of cross -strait relations.

The spread of the coronary virus epidemic is not difficult to find that there have been many conflicts with Taipei and Washington in Beijing.For Taiwan, the emergence of generations and formation of the rise of the youth generation has a huge and far -reaching impact on Taiwan's political territory.

In the past, the identity of the provinces and provinces has shifted to the only identity of Taiwanese.The separation between the mainland and Taiwan will only become more and more obvious.This is the reason why Cai Yingwen's high votes elected in January 2020, and the reason why the cross -strait frequent outbreaks of drool warfare under the epidemic.

As for Sino -US relations, the United States regards China as a strategic competitor, and the two countries have started confrontation in the fields of trade, technology, and media.The crown disease epidemic situation also appeared frequently between China and the United States.Although Trump temporarily shifted based on medical supplies and American Chinese votes, showing his attitude of cooperation with China.However, this change must be short -lived. After this epidemic, the tension between China and the United States will only intensify and will not slow down.

The two major impacts brought by the crown disease epidemic on the global political and economic territory will affect the global relationship of the epidemic era through the two paths.The first is the adjustment of the global supply chain.Although globalization will continue, after the epidemic, European and American countries have found that when the manufacturing industry is mainly Chinese monopoly, especially in the fields of pharmaceutical supplies, it exposes its own national security danger.Therefore, the global supply chain must be adjusted, and the multi -center and regional adjustment must be adjusted. If necessary, establish a corresponding supply chain in China.

In terms of politics, Trump's led US priority foreign policy has obviously weakened the leadership of the United States.The foundation of the existing international order was established by the United States after World War II.The absence and existing order in the United States in dealing with global issues will lead to an isolationist tendencies in more countries.This is consistent with the current wave of populism and nationalism.As the internal members of the EU countries show, when the disaster is coming, the people are more loyal to their own countries, not the European Union.

International organizations under the dominance of global thinking are probably a micro -trend.Whether it can play a positive role in the future will depend on whether the major powers can achieve consensus and work together.However, if China and the United States continue to show tension relationships, it is difficult to say that this situation can appear.

Back to the framework of the China -US Triangle, frequent saliva war between Beijing and Washington and Taipei, hostile emotions are becoming more and more intense. Such a long time in the past, such a triangular relationship will inevitably collapse and turn to a clear hostile relationship.In this context, Taipei must only stand on the side of the United States.

From the perspective of Beijing, although Tsai Ing -wen was elected in the election in January, Taiwan ’s anti -China -China emotions have risen, which is related to the 1992 consensus of the 92 Taiwan plan that the mainland adheres to.But obviously, Beijing did not intend to change its established policies and policies.Even from a certain perspective, the 1992 consensus is only a means, and the goal is to one country and two systems.

After Beijing experienced the anti -repair campaign in Hong Kong for half a year, through the sending veterans with the provincial governance experience of mainland China, he served as the leader of the relevant Hong Kong departments to show his determination to maintain and continue to promote one country, two systems.Taiwan cannot despise the determination of the mainland, and do not expect Beijing to change the strategy of Taiwan.

In other words, the current opposition to one country, two systems in Taiwan has a direct conflict with Beijing's persistence attitude.This means that there is no room for rotation between the two.If Taiwan wants to fight with the mainland, this rising anti -China emotions and positive measures may be adjusted.In particular, if global politics has entered the above -mentioned more realistic approach, it may be difficult for future world politics to be peaceful in the past years.The two sides of the strait will be high.This is not the blessing of both sides of the strait.

(The author is Beijing freelance)