United Daily News Agency
The outbreak of the crown disease has been extended from mainland China to Europe and the United States, and returned from the West to Asia. It has caused global production, consumption, and circulation to be in a state of disconnection and stagnation.The stock markets of various countries are still crumbling in the collapse, and the Chinese mainland, which is gradually out of the epidemic, has tried to resume work, but it is not optimistic about the trade and consumption walls of Western countries closed the city's trade and consumption high walls.
This epidemic, if it was compared with the Shas epidemic 17 years ago, it is meaningless.The reason is that the spread and impact range of new crown pneumonia have far beyond Shas, and the role of the Chinese economy in the global supply chain has become critical, and the mutual dependence and complexity of the global market is not the same as in the past.EssenceTo make matters worse, the epidemic in March has reversed from a raging reversal in China to a global popularity, causing all countries to be caught.Looking at the prediction changes of the international rating agency, the prediction of the international rating agency, it is predicted that the global economic growth this year will be repaired to 2.8%in early March, and the repair will only increase by only 1%in mid -March.It can be seen how strange the epidemic changes.
Although the impact of the epidemic and the recovery outlook is difficult to accurately evaluate, by analyzing the four development stages of real economy, financial aspect, bottom formation and long -term impact, it can still roughly describe the structure of the epidemic affecting the economy.
Consumption activities are blocked, and many industries are in crisis of disconnection.Under the two sides of demand and supply, most economic activities are frozen, and the manufacturing and service industries are facing the dilemma of decreased revenue, decreased profits, rising costs, and difficulty in inventory management.Coupled with the rise in uncertainties, it has forced corporate layoffs and investment plans to stagnate, and further lowered private consumption and investment momentum, and fell to the performance of economic growth.
Secondly, as the epidemic has caused the real economy, the panic in the financial market will reach a high point, asset prices have fallen, triggering investors deleveraging and panic selling, causing a vicious circle of asset prices to fall again, and forming financial disorders.At this time, some physiques have worsening the finances of the founding enterprise, and triggering crisis such as insufficient liquidity, and even stopping work and closing, reverse the economic fundamentals.That is, the interactive impact of the real economy and the financial surface will form a feedback cycle. The current situation in the United States is exactly the case.
Of course, the epidemic is finally calm, and the trend of the real economy and financial aspect will also come to the bottom of the bottom.However, in the future, the rapid recovery of the V -shaped reversal, or the slow -step recovery of the U -shaped, or the economic recession of the trend of the Types must be dependent on the effectiveness of anti -epidemic measures in various countries and the degree of changes in people's daily behavior.
Fiscal policy to boost the economy; 2. New crown virus becomes a seasonal virus. The northern hemisphere epidemic will still come again this fall, but the anti -epidemic prevention measures will improve, so that economic activities can be returned to normal.Although it is temporarily reduced or suspended, it will still recover in the future; then, the Chinese mainland economy may be recovered in the third quarter of this year, while the US and European economies are postponed to the third or fourth quarter.The industry may be later.
This epidemic will also have a long -term impact on the world economy.In particular, many industries have caused raw materials and products to break the chain crisis due to excessive dependence on China, and large -scale cross -border flow of population has become the best carrier of virus spread. The industry is bound to rethink how to adjust the global supply chain.Of course, the epidemic will also cause harm to many departments, reduce productivity, weaken investment confidence, and some of the third world countries that have insufficient public health capabilities but not noticed will also be miserable.To make matters worse, the upgrading of immigrants and tourism control may be long -term and goes for globalization.
This epidemic developed from mainland China to the global amazing development, which made countries around the world caught off guard. The economic scale of this disaster was absolutely difficult to underestimate.In addition to preventing epidemic prevention and clever relief, governments in various countries have no shortcuts in addition.
