Author: Ye Dehao
In the ideal world of epidemiologists, only nearly 7.8 billion people around the world continue to maintain each other by more than three to three weeks, and new Corphor-pneumonia (COVID-19) will perish.Unfortunately, in reality, there is a huge gap in the implementation of social alienation in terms of implementation of social departure.
However, if even a country such as Italy advocates personal freedom and depends on the regulations as the reason for the existence of regulations, it can also toughly block the country and reverse the epidemic. Western citizens who are currently trapped at home, even because of economic reasonsPoliticians may stick to dawn after seeing the darkness.
As of last Saturday (March 28), Italy's confirmed cases exceeded 92,000 and the number of deaths exceeded 10,000.[Update on March 31st: As of March 30, Italy's confirmed cases rose to more than 101,000, and the percentage of new cases in a single day had fallen to 4.1%.] After nearly three weeks of national ban and blockade policies, this trend seems to show that Italy has passed the first wave of the outbreak of the epidemic.
If this is the case, Italy will become another South Korea in the future. The focus of resistance will be how to prevent the epidemic from erupting in regions such as Yiyi South, how to improve the ability of existing treatment, testing and tracking viruses, how to not cause it to cause the first.In the case of two waves of outbreaks, the people's lives and economic production activities responded to normal problems, how to prevent the epidemic from entering from overseas input and other follow -up issues.
The exemplary epidemic trajectory
The reason why Italy's anti -epidemic effect is the focus of Western attention is that the outbreak of the Italian new crown pneumonia epidemic is exactly the same as that most Western countries are experiencing, so their anti -epidemic experience is particularly valuable.
Just as the United States, which is currently being used by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a future new crown epidemic, Italy detected the input case of the first new crown virus as early as the end of January.However, the response strategy of the two places simply simply implemented a customs sealing measures to the flights from China or an entry tourist who visited China, and regarded the new crown pneumonia that had been spread at least one month at the time as a problem far from the sky.Similar situations are extremely common in European and American countries.
However, according to a major influenza in the influenza in the academic journal of Nature in 2006, after 30 days of the epidemic, the validity of 99.9%of the closure policy was performed., Instead of completely prevent local communication.These western countries, which are indifferent to the epidemic on the earth, have missed the timing of fully preparing, and planted the root cause of the tragedy of the overload of the medical system in the future.
At the same time, the people's carelessness also influenced the country through politicians' words and deeds.In Italy, until February 27th, the fourth day of the 11 town of Lombardy (Lombardy), Nicola Zingaretti, the party leader of the Democratic Party, visited Milan in person, saying that the economy was stronger than fear.People continue to drink, drink coffee, and eat cakes.In the United States, at the turn of February and March, US President Trump also declared a miraculous disappearance of the epidemic, and the proportion of new crown virus was influenza, and it also referred to the epidemic situation as a new scam of the Democratic Party.
With the rapid development of the epidemic into a large popularity that cannot be relying on export surgery, the public is gradually inclined to accept tough policies.Italy entered the national suspension on March 4th; on the 8th, 16 million people in the northern provinces were implemented; on the 9th, the ban on the ban was promoted to the whole country; on the 11th, all non -essential store restaurants stopped business, and then gradually closed again.Non -essential factories.Similar policies have been followed by major western countries such as the West, France, Germany, and Britain.Trump finally awakened the epidemic on March 11 and performed a national anti -epidemic speech; on the 13th, it was announced that the country had entered an emergency; on the 16th, he issued a 15 -day national feet guideline and received different forms of states across the country in different forms.
Set time for the Economic Night
However, as the outside world expects that the US economy will shrink up to 24%in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate may rise to 30%that surpass the Great Depression, Trump continues to emphasize that treatment can not be worse than the problem itself.Let the United States return to normal life before Easter on April 12.
These remarks have set off the debate of the economic cost of Western public opinion against epidemic, and also shows the political problems encountered by Western leaders when they face the suspension of all walks of life.For example, the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has been trapped between the trade unions that call for the suspension on the grounds of security and the business groups that have been calling for the suspension of work on the grounds of security.Slowness will not stop it completely.
For Western democratic countries that are on the same anti -epidemic trajectory, the significance of the improvement of the Italian epidemic is that this will be able to give a blockade for a reference for reference. At the end of the road of economic night, there is dawn.How the Italian epidemic developed this week, maybe Trump, who has never paid much attention to Europe, has to watch closely.
