● Crown disease 19 epidemic
Remember early north
Han Yonghong
3 billion MDASH; MDASH; This is the total population that has been restricted to home immunization or activity due to the global epidemic in the world.A few days ago (22nd), this number was only 1 billion. With the addition of Britain, New Zealand and other countries, the banned population had rapidly expanded to 3 billion, which was equivalent to one -third of the global population.Among them, the 1.3 billion people in India have not been allowed to step out of the house since Wednesday morning. Indian Prime Minister Modi said directly that this is martial law.
In retrospect, when the crown disease epidemic has not yet spread in the western world, the New York Times pointed out on February 28 that the Middle Ages' method of locking the country to prevent epidemic prevention.Save a lot of life.The report also quoted public health experts to warn that the spread of the epidemic to the United States is only a matter of time. Unfortunately, American society still generally thinks that crown disease is just a matter of China, and now the world ’s confirmed cases are approaching 500,000. The United States has become another earthquake.Success.
The 3 billion population actions are limited, the global shipping industry has a Great Depression, and the economic activities in the locked country are suspended; in the crisis of life and health, many countries fall to nationalism and protectionism.All of this make the Middle Ages Castle's life closer.
Corresponding to the reality of the castle is the global industrial division of labor, the free multinational trading system, and the globalization pattern of free flow of personnel and enterprises. It seems to be away from us.
Robin Niblett, director of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, recently predicted that the crown disease may be the last straw that crushes economic globalization.Neblett believes that China's economic and military rise has stimulated the consistent claims of the United States' consistent claims with the decoupling of Chinese science and technology and intellectual property rights, and even to put pressure on not to adopt a unified front with it.This crown disease epidemic has forced the government, enterprises, and society to strengthen production capacity to deal with long -term economic self -isolation. In this case, the world is even more impossible to return to the globalization of mutual benefit.Moreover, those political leaders who have lost their points due to inadequate resistance are difficult to resist the instincts of over -the -body outer outer. This will make international cooperation more difficult and disputes.
Neblett believes that the globalization we know is ending.If we analyze the impact of crown disease on global power, this trend is even more obvious.
Since the 1980s, the globalization of the industrial chain division of labor is the core driving force for economic logic and profit -seeking, that is, to transfer or squeeze costs and improve efficiency through division of labor, so as to create more wealth and hope that they hopeAll participants are more or less divided.It turns out that the distribution of final interests is far from fairness. The wealth created by globalization is concentrated in a few oligarchs. Individual enterprises and rich people can even surpass national borders for capital operation and tax avoidance, which also erodes the country's economic and tax sovereignty.
However, since its driving force is profit -seeking, that is to say, global participants are coming to the same, not to work together, not to share danger.When regional or global plague occurs, threatening the most essential existence of human beings, the international husband and wife are the same scenes of Forest Bird and Difficulties.Recently, Italy has suffering from crown disease, but it will confirm this without receiving the aid of the European Union.
A small mask also fully exposed the disadvantages of a country's outflow of industries and excessively relying on international trade.The mask supply chain in Europe and the United States has been relocated for many years, and the mask supply crisis has recently occurred, which has caused hidden national security hazards. In Europe, Germany also cut the Swiss mask in Germany.These experiences will prompt countries and companies to re -weigh the global industrial division of labor and national security. More countries will supply core supplies in the border to avoid sacrificing security guarantee for the pursuit of efficiency.
When globalization encounters inverse flow, we will welcome a world with less openness, slower economic growth, and lower freedom.At that time, large powers can rely on the huge domestic market and supply to adapt to the new situation, and the survival of small countries will face greater challenges, and it may be more difficult to be more difficult to develop countries.
Of course, it depends on the length of the duration of the epidemic, and there are still many variables in the ending. It may not be as pessimistic as the Niruat prophecy.In recent weeks, China has ambitiously pushing out of epidemic diplomacy, but this may also stimulate the rebound between the United States and the Western world, intensify the conflict between Sino -US opposition and even civilization.
In any case, the world after the epidemic will be different from today.Returning to the castle life is just a metaphor, but the slowdown of globalization is obviously unavoidable. Any international trend is periodic.It is not a good thing, but also the direction that countries should work hard for politicians.As long as the needs of international cooperation and interests are still there, the new cooperation method will naturally occur.Conversely, if the epidemic is overwhelming, it is not only difficult to maintain globalization, but the nationalism, populist, and even civilized conflicts may occur. This is also a sign of the alert.
