Rescue the Great Volume: Let the earth ＂stop＂ for 30 days?

Text/Liu Juti

As if you don't have to open the online movie website, a century -old disaster movie is in front of us.

Over the past few weeks, with the outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, and spreading around the world, investors and people in the epidemic area watched a beautiful paradise and suddenly turned into hell gate.As of March 20, the US stocks had four fuses within 10 days, which caused the stock market break mechanism in 11 countries. The global important stock markets have experienced the plunge, skyrocketing, and plunge in the rolling car.

From China to South Korea, from Italy to the United States, governments of various countries have entered a state of quasi -war.The problem is that the enemy is everything, and it even quietly lives in our community and compatriots.After experiencing the international financial turmoil from 2007 to 2008, who will save the global economic recession this time?

The big recession in the eyes of Wall Street

Early warnings that may have declined in the global economy based on the Sino -US trade war in August last year. Compared with the economic impact formed based on the global epidemic spread, it is not a magnitude of Mdash; MDASH; the current crisis is almost at the speed of cautiousness.It hit like a tsunami.

The global economic recession has not only arrived, but it may also be more severity than World War II, which can be compared with the Great Depression throughout the 1930s in 1929.

Reuters's survey of 41 America and European economists from March 16th to 18th showed that 31 of the 41 economists who were surveyed (76 %) believed that the global economy was already in a decline.

Overall, a few weeks ago was listed as the worst situation of many Wall Street analysts, and now it has become the middle situation where they analyze.

At present, the global GDP growth rate of this year's forecast is between -2.0 % and+2.7 %.Based on the predictions of various data, the global economy will increase by 1.6 %, about half of the Wall Street analysts in January of January, which is the lowest year since the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008.In fact, these data are likely to deteriorate as the epidemic spreads or out of control.

Bruce Middot, Director of Global Economic Research at JP Morgan; Casman believes that the impact of new crown pneumonia will lead to a global recession, because in the three months from February to April, almost all countries have shrinking the economy.Morgan Chase's report released on March 18 predicts that the US economy will shrink 14 % in the second quarter.

Eyen Middot, the global economic director of the United States; Harris believes that among the three major economies, the United States and the euro zone will have negative growth, while China's growth is expected to be 1.5 %.Harris said: The title of our first article on the impact of the virus is lsquo; bad or worse rsquo;, now it should be corrected as lsquo; it is really bad or worse.We now expect that the new crown virus will cause global recession in 2020, which is similar to the decline in 1982 and 2009.

The labor market is a way to understand economic shock.Bank of America predicts that the U.S. unemployment rate will double, and about 1 million jobs will be lost in the second quarter, a total of 3.5 million.The U.S. Department of Labor may announce on March 26 that the applicant of unemployment subsidies for the first time has reached 3 million, which is more than four times that of the 1982 recession record.Morgan Organizer said on March 20 that this is only the first wave of new unemployed people, and the future unemployment rate may increase from the current 3.5 % to 20 %.

The situation will only become worse.Bank of America is expected to enter the trough in April, and the economy will then return to growth very slowly, and the economy will become normal by July.The only good news is that although the decline is very large, we think this will be short -lived.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Yang Middot; Harzius believes that the recession of the epidemic -driven will not be worse than the severe recession from 1981 to 1982 and 2008 to 2009, but it will be even more milder in 1991 and 2001.serious.As a result, he thus greatly reduced the global growth expectations to 1.25 % on March 18 because the epidemic in the United States and Europe was worsened, and China's data was also poor.He predicts that GDPs of the European Union, Japan and Britain this year will completely shrink.

The latest prediction released by Goldman Sachs on March 20 is even more pessimistic: the United States may see the economic annual rate of 6 % in the first quarter, and the annual economic decline in the second quarter of the second quarter is 24 %.Studies of Bridge Water Fund show that the US economy will shrink at a 30 % annual rate in the next three months.

Morgan Stanley said that China is expected to be the first to face economic shrinkage in the first quarter, and then it will be a greater impact in the second quarter of other parts of the world.It is estimated that China's economy will shrink 5 % in the first quarter, and then resume growth in the rest of 2020.Although the US economy will shrink 4 % in the second quarter, the euro zone will face the largest decline, and the annual growth will decline to -5 %.

Stephen Middot, Chairman of the Yawen Capital Investment Commission; Isaacis told the US Television CNBC that the crisis of the new crown virus is unprecedented because under the long -term bull market, the level of leverage and super -buying stocks has reached a record level.

IHS Markit will be reduced by the prediction of the actual GDP growth of the world in 2020 to 0.7 %; MDash; this indicator is less than 2.0 % on March 18, which indicates that the global recession occurs.

Economists of Deutsche Bank pointed out that the decline in GDP in the first and second quarters of the world in the first quarter and second quarters will greatly exceed the record since the Second World War.

It is worth noting that, even if the countries with severe epidemics implement the closure of regional factories, shops, restaurants, and schools, when will the inflection point of the virus transmission come, how will its economic consequences, and whether the heavy epidemic area will continue to transfer or spread. These problems still exist in these problems.Extreme uncertainty, which may cause the above estimates to be overturned and rewritten at any time.

Stimulating policy and anti -epidemic targets

The prediction of the new crown epidemic has led to the global economic recession, which puts great pressure on policy makers of various countries.On the one hand, they take measures to restrict business activities to deal with the health crisis; on the other hand, they are anxious to inject sufficient stimulating measures, and hope that once the virus spreads, the demand will increase.Unfortunately, these two powers may resist each other.

In areas where the epidemic is serious, government policy should put the bailout first, so that the catering industry and service industry that is hit by isolation quarantine and maintaining social distance instructions, aviation and tourism industries that have shrunk due to the spread of the virus, and the tourism industry, as well asA large number of unemployed tide groups have been in trouble.However, premature stimulation of consumption or premature resumption of work in order to stimulate the economy will extend the virus's impact on the economy and deepen the uncertainty of investors' concerns.

The central banks and governments of the world's major economies have deployed large -scale fiscal and currency stimulus plans in recent weeks to alleviate the economic turmoil caused by restrictions on travel and responding to the popularity of new crown viruses.

At the beginning of the outbreak of Wuhan, the Chinese government issued dozens of measures to support enterprises that have seriously affected the epidemic, including the establishment of a 300 billion yuan loan of RMB loans, to major national banks and many affected affected by Hubei, including Hubei, including Hubei, including Hubei, including Hubei, including Hubei, including Hubei, including Hubei.Local banks in serious provinces provide funds.

The People's Bank of China lowered the interest rate of the mid -term borrowing convenience (MLF) to 3.15 % on February 17, and from March 16th, the targeted reduction in banks that meet the assessment standards was 0.5 to 1 percentage point. Eligible joint -stock systems were eligible.Commercial banks have an additional targeted reduction of 1 percentage point, support the issuance of loans in the field of inclusive financial, and release long -term fundsRMB 550 billion.Since the beginning of this year, the central bank's two reductions have released 1.35 trillion yuan of long -term funds.

According to the Peninsula TV Station, the Chinese government will release the fiscal stimulus plan of trillions of RMB to stimulate infrastructure investment and start support for special bonds of up to 2.8 trillion yuan (394 billion US dollars).

In the United States, the Federal Reserve raised the target interest rate from 1.5 % to 1.75 % to a range of half a percentage point from 1.5 % to 1.75 %. This is the largest emergency rate reduction since the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008.The Fed once again reduced the target interest rate to 0 % to 0.25 % on March 15.The Fed also announced a quantitative easing plan of $ 700 billion, similar to the plan launched during the financial crisis from 2007 to 2008. It will purchase at least $ 700 billion in bonds, of which at least 500 billion US dollars are US Treasury bonds, and the rest will beSecurities mortgage securities to stabilize housing loans.

However, after announcing this series of measures, the U.S. stock index futures plummeted, triggering a melting mechanism to prevent panic selling.Fall.At the same time, the market VIX fear index set the highest point of 82.69 since its establishment on March 16th.

The White House, government departments and Congress have also announced various disaster relief measures, including providing economic relief and paid sick leave for workers who are isolated or caring for others.Salary tax reduction and exemption.

The Federal Reserve announced on March 17 the purchase of corporate bills up to $ 1 trillion to ensure that credit continues to flow in the economy.On March 23, a new round of loan mechanism was launched, providing loans to enterprises, providing financial support to municipal authorities, and purchasing hundreds of billions of dollars in government debt to prevent liquidity from tightening and becoming a repayment of American companies.Capability and credit crisis.

As of the end of the draft, the Trump administration and parliament are negotiating a total economic stimulus plan that may be as high as 1.8 trillion US dollars in an attempt to reach an agreement, including cash checks that are directly paid to Americans for bailout.In addition, the small enterprise management bureau will provide disaster loans to provide the affected enterprises with a maximum of $ 2 million in funds.

Following the Fed's actions, the Bank of England reduced the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.25 % on March 11 to encourage commercial banks to loans from small and medium -sized enterprises, thereby reducing bank capital requirements to further increase credit.The lending company is allowed to provide nearly 300 billion pounds of new loans (about 2.48 trillion yuan).

The European Central Bank announced on March 12 in accordance with market expectations, which announced the support of bank loans and expanded the euro bond repurchase plan (about 910.5 billion yuan).One week later, the European Central Bank announced on the evening of March 18 a 750 billion -euro economic stimulus plan and ensured that we had no restrictions on the euro commitment.

Bank of America's economist Middot; Miye believes that as the economy continues to face unknown areas, the government will take radical actions for redemption. At the same time, she emphasizes that in terms of policy response, we believe that the scale of stimulation should not be limited.

In fact, due to the serious epidemic situation of the major G20, everyone is difficult to protect itself. In addition, the Trump administration has a long -term relationship with the allies.Lack of strategies for international collaboration division of labor.

A few days ago, articles from US Foreign Affairs Magazine pointed out that even if Washington is currently focusing on domestic resistance, it cannot simply ignore the necessity of adopting coordination and consistent global countermeasures.Only strong leaders can solve global coordination issues related to travel restrictions, information sharing and key items.

Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said on March 22 that at present, it is too early to conclude that the world has entered the financial crisis.Including the President of the Central Bank, Yi Gang has repeatedly had many times with the Federal Reserve Commission Chairman Jerom Middot; Powell, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christeina Middot; George Ova and the general manager of the International Clearance Bank, Agu Middot; KasTengs needle discusses the strategy of response epidemic.

This shows that the leader of monetary policy still maintains policy coordination and communication. China is also through multilateral institutions such as the G20 and the International Monetary Fund to coordinate the policies of the popular consequences of the new crown virus. This is a positive phenomenon.

V -shaped rebound and stop the earth for 30 days

The global economic recession has already come, and the depth and duration of decline still exist in great uncertainty.George Ova, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said after a video conference with the G20 Treasury Secretary and the central bank governor on March 23 that the global economy will show negative growth in 2020, and experience at least like the global financial crisis, or even more seriousEconomic decline, but it is expected to recover in 2021.

Although the Deutsche Bank's longing for economic growth, after a sharp decline in economic growth, the V -shaped rebound appeared quickly before the second half of 2020, the difficulty of curbing the epidemic made such estimates difficult, because the spread of infectious diseases may give the major economies.Bring longer blows.

Deutsche Bank said that we cannot solve the uncertainty around these predictions. These are unprecedented events and have not enough historical basis to accurately infer our predictions.

Many merchants and investors look forward to being controlled by consumption that will be contained in the epidemic, which will be released as the epidemic is relieved, causing retaliation or compensation consumption.The question is, when will the epidemic be effectively controlled?The HIS market research institution's report pointed out that most of the risks predicted tend to be unfavorable, and to a large extent on the government's response.

Although the number of global infections and the number of deaths soared every day, both IHS and Goldman Sachs predicts that the number of global active cases will reach its peak before the third quarter of 2020, and it will slow from the second half of the year.

IHS's market report states that despite this, the result will be a U -shaped recovery of V -shaped, because the recent growth has decreased sharply, and then the recovery will slowly proceed.

Former CEO of Goldman Sachs Middot; Blancoffen predicted in an interview with the US media on March 9 that, in view of the strong economy of the United States, the large amount of capital reserves of banks, and the control level of debt in its financial system, once the authorities control the epidemic situationFor outbreaks, the US stock market, goods and other assets will rebound quickly. These factors will ensure that the consequences will not be as serious as the 2008 financial crisis in Goldman Sachs, so the global economy will also recover after the epidemic.

But ten days later, when the rumor of the market about Bridge Water Fund was full of day, the founder and chairman of the bridge water, Rui Middot; Dario said on March 19 on the US CNBC TV network that the new crown virus popularity may cause the global economy 12The $ trillion losses include the 4 trillion US dollars of losses that US companies may bear.Therefore, he believes that the US government's fiscal assistance must also reach trillions of dollars, and Dario believes that many people will go bankrupt.At present, the funds under the bridge water are lost between 10 % and 20 %.

From the perspective of these different observations, it is necessary to focus on whether the United States can effectively control the epidemic in the near future. The longer the time, the more difficult it is to ensure that the US economy can drive the recovery of global prosperity.

What about China?Zhu Min, Dean of the National Financial Research Institute of Tsinghua University, pointed out at the global financial market and economic situation analysis of the high -level forum in China on March 17th that the epidemic has now become a global issue.The resolution of the epidemic must require global cooperation.PopulationThe political uncertainty and the challenges of global cooperation are also a major uncertainty we are facing today.

Zhu Min observed that the Chinese economy was under the bottom of the epidemic and began to rebound.However, the biggest challenge of China's economic rebound is in the field of exports. As the epidemic continues to spread in index levels worldwide, it is expected that more countries will adopt a policy of sealed cities or locking countries.

According to Zhu Min's estimation, the losses caused by the epidemic to China from January to February of China reached 1.38 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.2 % of China's GDP throughout the year.Because the expected contribution of net exports to growth will be less than 0.1 %. If China's GDP growth target is 5.5 %, the final consumption will contribute 3.0 %, and the final capital formation contributes 2.4 %.However, according to SARS, consumption recovery after the impact of the epidemic is difficult.Therefore, future economic growth will mainly rely on the contribution of final capital formation.

Zhu Min also pointed out that the Chinese government has approved nearly 6 trillion investment projects, including new infrastructure such as UHV, intercity high -speed rail, 5G, new energy, and other new infrastructure. While driving the economy, it can also achieve the purpose of technological renewal.

Obviously, when several major economic engines in the world face unprecedented challenges, successfully implementing these stimulus policies should increase China's contribution to global economic growth.

In the United States, Bill Middot, the founder and CEO of Panxing Square Capital; Akman believes that long pain is not as good as short pain.Stop 30 days in exchange for the time to shorten the crisis affecting the company.

Akman emphasized that what is scared by Americans and American companies is now gradually launched, and no enterprise can survive for 18 months without income.But for the world, the only answer is to close the world for 30 days.

Akman believes that if Trump saves the United States from the new crown virus, he will be re -elected in the US election in November this year.The real meaning of this sentence is mdash; mdash; if you can't do it, you will definitely have no play.

However, the Wall Street Journal Affairs called for re -thinking about the business closure of the new crown virus, because any society could not maintain public health for a long time at the cost of its economic health.On the contrary, the New York Times believes that Italian experience provides a lesson for the world: measures to isolate new crown viruses and restrict people's activities must be taken as soon as possible, the instructions must be absolutely clear and strictly implemented.

The problem is that it is too late to stop the earth for 30 days?As far as the situation in the United States is concerned, the priority is to expand the detection range in the major epidemic area with reference to the Korean model, and mobilize medical supplies to prevent the collapse of the medical system and hope to flatten the curve of the growth of cases as soon as possible.

At the same time, no matter in the face of a health crisis or a recovery economy, no economy can be alone, because if there is no international cooperation, the risk of multinational tourism will continue to rise before the discovery of special effects and vaccines.And the country means that the global supply chain will also fall off the chain, and many manufacturing and logistics still face severe situation.

Therefore, it is not a certain economy that is the task of saving the global economic recession at the moment, but a multinational cooperation that can face virus challenges in the face of virus challenges.