With the 2019 coronary virus raging countries, the world has gradually lost in the past two weeks, and the stock market reflects people's anxiety and anxiety.French President Macron said fighting with the virus, British Prime Minister Johnson described it as a war government, US President Trump used war legal national defense production law.If this is a war, this is an intangible war against the disease, it is invincible and more unknown.
The world is actually trapped in war (fortunately, but not against each other). Olivier Blanchard, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said on a social platform.It is true that many national hospitals are overloaded, and hundreds of deaths are daily. The market is gradually gone, schools and churches are closed, masks and other strategic supplies.Looking at these description alone, it is indeed similar to the state of war.They are just viruses invisible, and the epidemic penetrates the national borders. Compared with the definition of the battlefield and the concentration of artillery, the whole society is facing the challenge.
Challenge 1: Community control epidemic
According to the epidemic, it can be divided into about four levels: no cases, sporadic cases, group cases, community infections.There was a sporadic case in Hong Kong in late January. Until early February, the border furnace family had entered the group case stage.With the ability to surround the strategy, even after the infection of groups such as Taikoo City engineers and North Point Buddhist Temple, Hong Kong has not yet set out a community.In contrast, Wuhan, Daegu, South Korea, and northern Italy in the Mainland are community infections. The virus has basically spread, and it is difficult to track the spread chain, let alone obstruction.
Hong Kong maintained a monthly degree for more than a month, which does not mean that the infection is far from the community.In fact, the deterioration of the epidemic can be faster than we imagine.9, 10, 25, and 16 cases were added from Monday to Thursday (March 16th to 19th), respectively. Many people had foreign travel records during the latent period, proving that the epidemic had returned to Hong Kong overseas.The basic infection (R0) of the coronary virus exceeds 2, and the returning returned people accidentally, 30 can be turned into 90 in a few days, and one or two weeks can evolve into community outbreaks.The persistent public health and maintaining social distance are the first challenges of this war.
Challenge 2: Medical System Combat
The second challenge is to the medical system.When epidemic outbreaks in the community, just like Italy, Spain, Britain, etc., a large number of confirmed patients will make the hospital unbearable.If this war has a specific battlefield, it is the hospital to test the tolerance of the medical system.In terms of beds, the medical system with sufficient resources is inevitable when the epidemic is popular. Wuhan builds Vulgar Mountain Hospital because it is necessary to place a large number of patients with mild patients.In terms of manpower, the medical pressure is heavy, and many fresh medical graduates in Italy have already rushed into the battle.In severe periods, medical care even determines the diversion of the case and the order of saving the person.
Even the well -known British NHS may be crushed, and Hong Kong, which is tight in influenza during the peak of flu, has no reason to worry about it.Xu Shichang, a government consultant and Professor of CUHK, pointed out that once Hong Kong has a large -scale outbreak, the beds of public hospitals are full, and mild patients may have to be isolated at home.
Challenge 3: Economic operation under the epidemic
The third challenge is for the economy.Economy is closely related to finance, but it is always different.The US Federal Reserve's urgent interest rate reduction was 1.5 % within two weeks, and it was impossible to prevent the US stock market from plummeting. It is precisely because the current world faces the decline of economic activities, instead of the issue of financial tsunami -like funds in 2008.In the 21st century, which is highly financial and financial, many government relies on financial or monetary policy regulation and control of financial or monetary policy. However, for the current economic problems, including a large number of diet and service employees, these measures are obviously no available.
The Hong Kong government has adopted expansion measures to greatly increase expenses and even pay money by the whole people. The concept is correct. Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner, and American economist, also quoted this as the US relief measures.example.However, economic activities have continued to stop with the epidemic. In addition to allowing citizenship, such as tax refund, money, and unemployment allowances, it is not a doubt whether it can inject motivation for the economy.If history can be learned, in the 1930s, U.S. President Rosefu scolded public demand and employment opportunities in the 1940s, and British economist Kanes expanded public social security in the 1940s, which shows that governments including Hong Kong must jump out of the market supremacy in the 1980s.thinking.
Even though today's government may not immediately increase the employees, or call for labor like war, how to make demand and adjust the economic activity model so that it can maintain operation during the duration of the epidemic.It is not dared to invest in the popularization of masks and medical equipment and investment online to popularize non -contact economies. The market may not dare to invest in uncertainty and negative expectations.This is not only injecting the motivation for economic circulation, but also to help society adapt to the non -normal life under the epidemic.Even though the epidemic may last for a year and a half, if the society has found an alternative operation mode and regaining certain expectations for the economy, anxiety and anxiety can greatly reduce.Perhaps this war is just the beginning, is the leaders of all local governments prepared?
