The Hong Kong Ming Pao Agency commented that the WHO announced that the new crown virus epidemic has reached a large level of popularity worldwide. European and American countries have adopted a gradual upgrade of border control measures. One day it will evolve into a complete static flow of global personnel.It has to be observed, but the international trade will also be significantly reduced. In the long run, globalization will be severely damaged. As a result, geopolitics has changed, and the transformation of the world pattern may have quietly begun.
From the perspective of organizing the production system at the international level, a mobile phone, from design to parts to be embedded in finished products, hundreds of procedures may be completed by different units of dozens of countries.The convenience of logistics has made various production factors vividly. It uses factors such as nearly raw material producers to near the consumer market, and specialization of workers and equipment, and organizes into a strict international division of labor.
The epidemic expands. The first thing that is the first is that the production of a certain area is stopped. The delay in the production chain will be seriously affected. For example, the global pharmaceutical industry depends on China's chemical raw materials or semi -finished products.For many months, the Pharmaceutical Factory in the United States and India almost stop working; a certain part of German cars rely entirely on Italian supply, and the epidemic has led to the suspension of the production of German auto factory.The original advantage of globalization is to reduce repetitive construction to reduce costs. Because the impact of this epidemic is immediately emerged as the impact of this epidemic.
Another advantage of globalization is that the output depends on market demand. There is no need for inventory in all links. The cost of product can be greatly reduced and wasteful. The conditions are timely information and smooth international transportation.Nowadays, the epidemic occurs, people work at home, and information can also reach every corner of the world through the Internet, but international logistics can be severely blocked.Due to the large reduction in aircraft flights, it is difficult to pay for transportation. Although most of the vehicles that transport the goods are not restricted, the truck drivers are unwilling to risk, resulting in a decline in shipping.
Global production chain is blocked by the epidemic
The biggest problem is the national policy. After many years of running into a single market, the EU has become a single market. Once the epidemic, France and Germany first prohibit the export of masks and protective equipment. This kind of self -protection policy has built a effective international trade.Barn.The personnel flow is isolated from the request after passing the level to simply restrict all foreigners entering the country.Product research and development to production, although it can be solved online through online communication, some links still need to be implemented on the spot. The personnel flow will be banned, and the order of international division of labor will be severely blocked.Even if these customs policies will hurt allies and neighbors, they will not hesitate to control the epidemic.
The biggest hit by the epidemic is backward countries. These countries are often backward in medical systems because they lack professionals and instruments and are difficult to cope with the epidemic. These countries are originally raw materials out of production, or they have become manufacturing production sites and production chains because of their low wages.Discontinued due to the blockage of the epidemic is undoubtedly worse.
As some discussion believes that the new crown virus epidemic is not the result of globalization, the lives of life are closed, and the governments of various countries have temporarily launched restrictions on measures.The division of labor production arrangements will also be restored or re -established, because companies will still get the benefits of globalization, and consumers will continue to benefit.
However, another greater policy factors affecting globalization were hazy before the emergence of the epidemic.U.S. President Trump takes the United States as a campaign priority and launch a trade war to many countries around the world after taking office. This strategic goal has gradually developed to the extreme. When the Chinese epidemic began, American business representative Ross said that he believed that the virus broke out in China to accelerate the United States.Enterprises will move back to the United States.When the US pharmaceutical manufacturers are broken by Chinese raw materials, some hawks advocate raising pharmaceuticals into national security products and require pharmaceuticals to reduce their dependence on China;A huge sum of money to lure a German pharmaceutical factory to move the R & D department to the United States, causing German Chancellor Merkel to issue a statement.
In the past, the restrictions on international trade were artificially set up by the two camps due to ideological differences. The international division of labor was also blocked and could not effectively allocate production elements. With the end of the Cold War, various barriers were demolished and spawned globalization.If the new crown virus epidemic is only a temporary obstacle to the global production model, it will not affect the general trend. Just as there is no metaphor that the spring will not come, the globalization will continue to rejuvenate after the epidemic fades.Essence
New Cold War Economy is more terrible than the new crown epidemic
Various signs show that the restrictions on international trade and staffing settings in the United States have reinforced the U.S. -priority international strategy that has begun to implement by the epidemic.After the epidemic, global economic damage, the United States' ability to resist economic depression is worse than other countries. I am afraid that it will intensify and set up many obstacles to the restoration of globalization.It can't be avoided.
Once globalization retreats, the United States can monopolize more resources and production elements in its influence, and continue to be the hegemony for the prison. As a large group, China has a complete industrial system and a large market, it can also continue to run local global in the region.The production cost of the international division of labor may be slightly improved, but it will not be severely dragged.The saddest thing is the small country and backward country, and their development space will be threatened.The stronger the strong, the weaker the weak person becomes a fire and fire, and the hope of win -win and co -prosperity will become a bubble.
