More and more countries around the world have spread to the new type of coronary virus pneumonia (COVID-19) in the city.Following Spain, Germany, Malaysia, there are similar announcements in Canada, Peru, Chile and other places.France suddenly announced that it would be closed on Tuesday and ordered the masses to stay as much as possible, which last 15 days, causing the wave of escape.Measures such as Fengguan City and other measures are still waiting to be seen whether the immigration is valid. A research report published in Wuhan in China at the beginning of the month pointed out that even if the tourism restrictions are greatly implemented, it can only slightly delay the outbreak of the epidemic. It is necessary to effectively control it.The epidemic also needs to cooperate with measures to prevent the outbreak of the community.
French blockade is not necessary to prohibit out
French President Macron announced on Monday evening that the land border was closed and the people were prohibited from entering the counties, relatives and friends across provinces, and relatives and friends. Out of going out is limited to buying necessities, seeking medical treatment, or not working at home with electronic media.The new measures come into effect from noon on Tuesday, at least 15 days.The people must stay at home, and the military can be sent to the hospital with illness.The authorities will use about 100,000 police forces and gendarmerie inspections. Those who do not apply for reasonable on the street in writing can be fined 38 euros to 135 euros (324 to 1,152 Hong Kong dollars).Macron said this was a war against COVID-19 by governments in the world.Reuters reported that a large number of Parisians left the capital in response to the blockade order.
In addition to the European continent, some areas of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Asia and Latin America have different degrees of measures or urban measures.
In order to explore whether the tourism restrictions such as Fengguan Guancheng are effective in controlling the epidemic, Dr. Matteo Chinazzi, a scholar of the Infectious Disease Communication Mode, and experts from Italy, China and other places, and the source of the outbreak of the epidemic, Wuhan, ChinaThe situation of the broadcasting epidemic model was analyzed (see the figure), and the results were announced on the scientific journal on March 6.Researchers have observed measures such as Wuhan and other cities in Hubei Province on January 23 this year, and restrictions on transportation, and after February 1, the European Union and other places have successively implemented tourism restrictions on visas to China.The situation and the overall infection nationwide, the model is calculated by the model to calculate the impact of travel restrictions on the epidemic.
Travel restrictions make the epidemic extend slightly for 3 to 5 days
Studies have found that the implementation of tourism restrictions can only make the outbreak of the epidemic in other parts of China slightly delayed by 3 to 5 days, which reduces the number of infections in mainland China by 10%, and the immune effect is limited.Some cities are related to the flow of infected people.Research also pointed out that the restrictions on tourism can greatly reduce the infection cases output overseas by mainland China by 77%, but it can only be maintained for 2 to 3 weeks, mainly due to other cities from mainland China, including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou.Overseas.
If there are no measures to reduce community infection, including early discovery of infections, and implementation of isolation, even if the traffic restrictions have decreased by 90%of the traffic in mainland China, it can only postpone the overall outbreak of mainland China than two weeks.The case output to overseas will be reduced by 10 times first, and the level of rebounding to the level before the implementation will be rebounded from March.
The best interception effect of community epidemic prevention sources
However, tourism restrictions and reduction in community infection can have a greater synergy effect.Studies believe that because many infected people have not been perceived, the implementation of tourism restrictions on the outbreak of epidemic areas has the limited effect of tourism restrictions on the immune and reducing community infection.
Many experts also hold similar opinions.The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that governments of various countries propagate the risk of epidemics to the public and test all suspected cases as much as possible, but they should be avoided.Bruce Aylward, a senior consultant of WHO experts, said that although China, which has implemented travel restrictions, has been slow to see the epidemic, may be related to local rapid isolation measures. At present, it is difficult to judge which immune measures are the most effective.Danielle Ompad, an epidemiologist at the University of New York, also said that strict tourism restrictions can theoretically postpone the spread of epidemic and make medical institutions prepare, but must be matched with other immune measures.
