On March 11, the World Health Organization announced that the 2019 coronary virus disease epidemic has constituted a major epidemic.Now, the big problem in front of the world is: when will the epidemic end end?All signs show that it takes at least one and a half years.The more pessimistic view is that the virus may occur and periodic like flu.Therefore, all countries must formulate various response plans as soon as possible.
The crown disease epidemic has now spread to the world, and countries are in different stages of onset. Some are at the beginning, some are entering the outbreak period, and some seem to have been controlled.However, from the experience of China, from the discovery of the confirmed cases to the outbreak or the basis of basically controlled, it must be experienced for at least several months, and it is necessary to take extremely severe control measures like the city.The speed and ability of resources.This is not what every country can do.Therefore, how will the epidemic develop and when can the haze be dispersed, which increases a lot of uncertainty and unpredictable.
The Director -General of the WHO Tan Desai pointed out at a press conference on the day of the announcement that the confirmation cases of coronary diseases outside China in the past two weeks have increased by 13 times, and the affected countries and regions have also increased to 114.A total of more than 126,000 have been accumulated, and there are more than 4,500 death cases. In addition, thousands of infected people are fighting in the hospital for survival.It is expected that the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the number of affected countries and regions in the next few weeks will rise.(I press: As of March 16th, the virus has spread to 150 countries and regions, and the total diagnosis cases have approached 170,000, which shows that the virus spreads fast.)
It was more than a month before the announcement of the announcement of Wuhan, China on January 23.At this time, the epidemic in China is tending to ease, and the daily confirmed cases have declined significantly. However, many places outside China are either worsening or just beginning. The scope of infection is getting bigger and more people with illness.In order to come, from the end of December last year, cases began to occur to outbreaks of the epidemic, and then gradually controlled the epidemic. It has gone through about three months.
In countries outside China, the worst epidemics include South Korea, Italy and Iran.South Korea was diagnosed on January 20, and the first crown disease was diagnosed. After that, the epidemic gradually spread and deteriorated, and it was not until recently.If the outbreak of South Korea has been basically controlled, it took two months to count.Iran and Italy have confirmed cases in the late February and late ending. They are still in a high incidence. Italy has entered a state of locking countries. When can the epidemic be eased?It takes a few months.Iran's situation is particularly dangerous, because the economic sanctions of the United States and Western countries have greatly restricted its medical response ability.
A few days ago, WHO said that the current reports and death cases reported by Europe have surpassed the sum of the total of countries and regions outside China and have become a epicenter of crown diseases.In addition to Italy, the epidemic in France, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, the United States and other countries has expanded rapidly.The U.S. President Trump, which underestimated the epidemic at the beginning, soon announced that the country entered an emergency.The virus is coming, and the western developed countries are still so embarrassed that they can't stand it, and they can't even say that other developing countries and regions are.
In general, the world's epidemic is almost impossible to ease in the short term.The Chinese government estimates that the global epidemic may last a year or even longer.In fact, Wuhan has not yet been unsealed, and China has begun to appear more and more input cases.There are also more and more input cases in Singapore, and resistance has also entered a new stage.
If countries around the world cannot take consistent anti -epidemic operations, there may be cases from all over the world that may rise and endless, and the end of the hand will be delayed.In other words, waiting for the end of the epidemic may be far away.Therefore, both the government and the public must be prepared for long -term operations.
The problem is not only the epidemic.The virus has taken away thousands of lives. Although it is distressed, the damage of the world economy may have a heavier and far -reaching impact on the countries.For many countries that are very important for tourism and related industries, a British airline has risen bankruptcy.The chain response of the epidemic to airports, hotels, catering, retail and services is obvious.The impact of international trade has also been revealed.How many companies will go down because of this?How many workers' rice bowls will be broken therefore?These are difficult issues that governments must face.
The impact of the epidemic on the economy is of course far more than that.China, as a world factory, took tough measures that have not been seen before the outbreak of the city after the outbreak, and soon broke the supply chain of the entire world. All enterprises and countries relying on the Chinese market and raw materials were immediately suffered.Although this aspect highlights the importance of the Chinese market today, it also exposes the weakness of the world supply chain.The bone card effect caused by the sudden break of the supply chain is terrible.
How long will this dilemma last?Is there any way to get out of this dilemma?Is there any way to make the world supply chain more tough?Obviously, for all countries, this is a difficult problem that is difficult to solve, and it is impossible to have a solution overnight.Its direct effect is that the world economy will be severely hit.For our country, since various living materials are highly dependent on imports, we must seek ways in any case to try to strengthen our security guarantee, and this requires a long -term strategy and deployment.
As far as we are, we are urgent to make preparations for storms in the world economy.According to the London Financial Times, economists at the International Monetary Fund said that the world economy has actually fallen into a decline.Local economists also predict that the economy in my country will shrink 0.8%in the first quarter of this year.How to avoid the company's large -scale layoffs, and there are many people who have zero workers facing the dilemma of cutting off cooking. It is indeed an urgency.The Chinese government is preparing for the second rescue and assistance supporting facilities, and this time, it may inevitably use the national reserve.
The crisis is in full swing, and various issues and challenges have come, but the term of the current government is close to the end.To formulate and implement various short -term, medium and long -term policy response to the epidemic and the world economic situation within the remaining limited time, to ensure that Singapore can not only pass the virus difficulty, but also continue to develop after the crisis.Essence
Therefore, it is a better choice to reorganize the commission of voters at the current stage of the relatively controllable epidemic.As the so -called night long dreams, the epidemic development is unpredictable. In the face of crisis, it is suitable for a quick decision.Of course, in addition to being commissioned by voters to be strongly entrusted, the new government must also have a strong governance ability, otherwise it is difficult to complete the heavy responsibility delivered by voters.
(The author is a former journalist, a former member of the Congress)
If countries around the world cannot take consistent anti -epidemic operations, there may be cases from all over the world that may rise and endless, and the end of the hand will be delayed.In other words, waiting for the end of the epidemic may be far away.Therefore, both the government and the public must be prepared for long -term operations.
