Hot topic
The epidemic of coronary virus disease in China 2019 is improving, but the global epidemic is spreading.The fall of South Korea and Iran, the EU, Italy, Germany, and France have become seriously disaster -stricken areas, and the U.S. and Japanese epidemic has uncertainty.In this situation, the crown disease epidemic has become global panic.
Before the three major US stock market fell back to the financial crisis overnight, Europe, Asia -Pacific and global capital markets also fell.The Federal Reserve Commission has an emergency interest rate cut for 50 basis points, and the interest rate of federal reserve funds has dropped from 1.5%to 1.75%to 1.25%.Subsequently, the three major US stock markets were in a turbulent adjustment, and the Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates.From the point of view and amplitude of the time cuts, the risks brought by the epidemic are obviously higher than that of the Sino -US trade friction; last year, the Federal Reserve had interest rate cuts three times and 25 basis points each time.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut medicine will also form a follow -up effect of other central banks.This also means that although the epidemic has the severity, global risks have been formed.
Although the Fed is quite sensitive to the epidemic, it is necessary to further evaluate the effect of cutting interest rates.Based on the global economic crisis caused by the Wall Street financial crisis in 2008, the crisis of the year was only the greed of Wall Street Finance, which exposed the flaws of the US financial system; then formed a chain reaction, and the European sovereign debt crisis broke out.Therefore, that global economic crisis was caused by the structural contradictions accumulated by Western capitalist finance and fiscal systems.
However, at that time, there was no problem with the global industrial chain and supply chain, and the vitality of emerging market countries led by China was activated.Therefore, China can support the country's economy to continue to advance high (even if the quality is not high -quality growth), which can support the global market confidence.Therefore, in global multilateral mechanisms such as the World Trade Organization, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the right to speak in emerging markets such as China is increasing.In addition, the traditional seven -way Group (G7) negotiated to solve the decline in the ability of the global economic crisis, and the global influence of the G20 (G20) of the 20th Group (G20) increased.
In addition, China's leading Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB, referred to as the Asian Investment Bank) has become a global institution, of course, there are multilateral mechanisms such as the BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative.Therefore, the ten -year crisis of the previous cycle is not so much a disaster in the global market, it is better to say that the Western order and emerging markets are the same.
The impact of the crown disease is more uncertain.If the epidemic continues, the global industrial chain and supply chain will be interrupted, and global trade will be trapped.To make matters worse, major global economies have been dragged down by the epidemic. Even if China's epidemic has improved and is blocked by the global market chain, it is difficult for China to be released as the world's largest economic engine.In addition, there is a suspense in the U.S. -Japan epidemic data, because the two countries have not tested all suspected people.
2020 is the year of the United States election, and the re -election is the top priority of President Trump.It is also the Olympic year of Japan in 2020. Japan has spent $ 29 billion for the Olympic Games.Trump is unwilling to have an epidemic affecting the election. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe does not want the Olympic chicken to fight, otherwise they will suffer huge political losses.Therefore, the lack of epidemic monitoring in the United States and Japan, as well as the number of confirmed cases, will inevitably make the international community suspect that politics is doped.
However, the panic is global and the epidemic has infected the capital market.Even if there are not many cases in the United States and Japan, the shock decline of the three major US stock indexes has brought negative conduction to the global stock market.For the US market, due to the development of the US financial industry and the high -tech industry, these two industries are closely related to the stock market, so the turbulent US stocks have also shaken the foundation of the US economy.
Trump's election is proud of the economy, and there is a big bull market that lasted for ten years, which has been beautified into Trump market.Therefore, Trump's most intolerable is the plunge in the US stock market.Last year, the US stock market fluctuated by the Sino -US trade war, and the White House pressure the Federal Reserve into the interest rate cut channel.The negative impact of the epidemic on the US stock market has surpassed the Sino -US trade friction superimposed scientific and technological warfare.Therefore, without the strong pressure of the White House, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates sharply in advance, and it is a high probability event to continue to cut interest rates.
In the effect of interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks have performed both irritating rises and rapid lowered.Obviously, it may not be possible to cure the capital by lift the US stock market by relying on interest rate cuts.As long as the global epidemic does not disappear, the global industrial chain and supply chain cannot be fully recovered, and the global capital market will always be in panic.
Interestingly, the Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that although the interest rate cut will not reduce the infection rate, it will bring meaningful promotion to the economy.Considering the caution of Powell's interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve actively reduced interest rate cuts in advance (the March interest rate conference was originally from 17th to 18th), highlighting the negative impact of the Fed in the epidemic.The meaningful promotion of the Fed's energy to the US economy depends on the development of the epidemic.
Although Trump's first term has been prioritizing trade protectionism and unilateralism in the United States, the above -mentioned doctrine is the anti -globalization that Trump's initiative to implement, so the negative impact risks that bring the US economy can be controlled.The epidemic has led to passively blocking global trade and weakening the global economic momentum. Even if the United States is not the most important country in the country, it is still difficult to desertinate the epidemic.
The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut is a good medicine for the treatment of market imbalances, and it may not be good for the economic crisis caused by the epidemic.Therefore, the best drug rescue medicine is global collaboration resistance, and the god of crown disease is sent as soon as possible.
The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society
Passenger researcher at Renmin University of China Chongyang Financial Research Institute
