" Kim Jong -un (left) and Trump held the third meeting in Banmen Store in June this year.(Reuters)

Social Theory December 25, 2019

North Korea has threatened to send Christmas gifts to the United States in the past few days, making it difficult for Northeast Asia and the United States to easily meet Christmas and New Year's Day.The US government and North Korean observers believe that North Korea may test the intercontinental ballistic missiles at Christmas to pressure the United States to make concessions in North Korea's non -nuclear projects.From the dialogue to scolding from the dialogue, it once again provoked the nerve endings of the international community.Sino -Japanese and Korean leaders held a summit in China in the past two days. In addition to consulting the regional economic and trade order, the situation in North Korea is also one of the core topics.

After U.S. President Trump took office in early 2017, the confrontation of the United States and North Korea continued to upgrade immediately.A series of ballistic missiles in North Korea, the leaders of the two countries scolded each other, and North Korea stated that it launched a missile attack on Guam in the United States. The United States threatened the attack on North Korea's nasal blood operation. The Korean Peninsula seemed to be in a crisis of war.However, North Korean leader Kim Jong -un released a goodwill to South Korea and the United States on New Year's Day in early 2018. North Korean athletes participated in the South Korean Pyeongchang Winter Olympics held in February.Cooling.

In February this year, the head of the United States and North Korea met with a second meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam, but was unhappy.Kim Jong -un has obviously lost his patience about Trump. In April, it was limited to the United States at the latest to give North Korea a statement at the end of this year.Although the two heads of the two countries held a third meeting at the Banmen Store two months later, consensus could not be reached.The two countries are mainly entangled in slowing down the sanctions on the DPRK and then gradual nuclear, or go to the nuclear before slowing sanctions.Since June this year, North Korea has restored some short -term tests and frequently announced various weapons tests. It also asked the United States to cancel the hostile policy for North Korea, otherwise North Korea will not restart the negotiation of no nuclearization.Earlier this month, the US satellite detected a new event in the West Sea Rocket launcher. Pyongyang said that it would give Washington a Christmas gift. The content of the gift depends on the development of the next situation.

Christmas gifts in Pyongyang are most likely to test the intercontinental ballistic missiles.It is generally believed that Pyongyang will not conduct nuclear tests, because this will touch the bottom line of Beijing, Kim Jong -un is likely to lose the support of the most important backing.If Pyongyang tests the intercontinental ballistic missile covering the United States, it may also touch the bottom line of Trump, which will make the United States impose sanctions against the DPRK.Kim Jong -un obviously intended to re -re -apply the hometown, and Trump made concessions through extreme pressure, but the international community was worried that the US North Korea was in a crisis in 2017.Since June, North Korea has conducted a missile test, Trump has slowed his cheeks for Kim Jong -un, but when he attended the NATO summit in London earlier this month, he once again described Kim Jong -un with the Rockets and also mentioned the possibility of martial arts.

North Korea's attitude is increasingly strong, because it has been two years since Kim Jong -un's Chinese New Year's congratulations to improve the situation on the Korean Peninsula, but only the US and South Korea suspend military exercises against North Korea and have not achieved any substantial progress that can improve US -DPRK relations.In the past two years, Kim Jong -un has shown the vision of intending to reform the North Korean economy, but suffering from being unable to get the United States' commitment to martial arts and ease economic sanctions.Kim Jong -un's personal safety and regime stability cannot be guaranteed, and naturally cannot take a step of chess.

Since the end of the Korean War, the American government has not recognized the North Korean Golden Regime, and the US North Korea has never signed a suspension agreement.After taking office, Trump changed his attitude towards DPRK. For Kim Jong -un, Trump was a breakthrough in North Korea to change his historical dilemma.Kim Jong -un also knows that the United States and China under the rule of Trump have played a game of great powers. Pyongyang can just bet on both sides, which is a rare historical opportunity.However, Trump faces polarization in China. If the presidential election cannot be re -elected next year, the window period for Pyongyang to improve its geographical political environment is likely to be closed.It is not difficult to understand the anxiety of Kim Jong -un's eagerness to break through the US -DPRK relations before the end of Trump's term.

Trump's Chinese and American trade war has recently achieved a staged breakthrough in the near future. He must also want to achieve achievements in diplomacy. A nuclearization agreement for the Korean Peninsula is likely to make him nominated by the Nobel Peace Prize.It helps to improve his chance of winning in the next year's election. This is a more solid political dividend, and he is a wishful abacus of his mind.In September, he remained in the duties of Bolton, a former tough national security consultant, showing that he had to control the rhythm and direction of the US -DPRK dialogue.However, although he claims to be a master of negotiating, he is still unsure to ensure how North Korea has obeyed the de -nuclear commitment.It is foreseeable that North Korea's denuclearization must be one of the election offensive and defensive issues he had to face.North Korea's economy shrinks 3.5%in 2017 and shrinks 4.1%last year. The international sanctions on North Korea have significantly played a significant role.China and Russia recently suggested to relax sanctions on the North Korea in the United Nations Security Council, indicating that North Korea has received Sino -Russian support.From this point of view, Kim Jong -un still has some capital to continue to stalemate with Trump.

This round of confrontation between the United States and North Korea is also the game between Trump and Kim Jong -un. See who blinked first.However, the first blink of an eye may not lose, and then the blink of an eye may not win, because the result of the extreme pressure is likely that a child is full, and the biggest injury will be the people of the Korean Peninsula in the end.