Over the past two years, conflicts between the United States and China have dominated the topic of economic and financial markets, which are very simple.The threat and accusations have been accused for a long time, far before Trump's election as the president of the United States. Now, the mouth gun has become actions.In the past 17 months, the world's two largest economies have been involved in the worst tariff war since the early 1930s.In addition, the United States has weapons the trade policy to combat Huawei and other specific companies that it considers it to pose a threat, and expands the front of the tariff war.
I am ashamed because, like other people, I only pay attention to each turning point of the epic contest between the world's two major economic powers.From the beginning, this is a political conflict with economic weapons, and it may still be possible in the foreseeable future.Of course, this means that the prospects of economic and financial markets basically depend on the political dynamics between the United States and China.
In view of this, the so -called first -stage mini -trade agreement promoted on October 11 may be an important political signal.Although once this agreement is reached (compiled by: the two countries have reached an agreement on December 13), it will hardly have a substantial economic impact, but it provides a strong hint, indicating that Trump is finally enoughThis trade war.Considering political concerns from China, especially impeachment and upcoming 2020 elections, it announced victory and tried to respond to Trump's interests in response to domestic issues.
As for China, it also wants to end the trade war.The politics of one -party state country is obviously very different, but the Chinese leadership will not succumb to the core principles of national sovereignty, nor will they abandon the grand goal of achieving revival, growth and development in the middle of this century.At the same time, the downlink pressure on the economy cannot be ignored.However, because Chinese decision makers are determined to adhere to its three -year deleveraging movement, this self -exerted measure is an important reason for the current economic slowdown. They should be more anxious to solve the trade -related pressure brought by the Sino -US conflict.
Therefore, the political calculations of the two countries are becoming more consistent, and both sides are seeking some kind of rest of the bowl of noodles.The risks of other complex situations have always existed, such as the recent incidents in Hong Kong and the disclosure of the development of the Xinjiang situation in China.However, at least, at least, the political situation of the trade war is now more pointing to ease, rather than the upgrade again.
If this is the case, and if the first phase of the agreement is reached and signed, we need to think about what the world will be like after the trade war.In my opinion, going globalization, decoupling, and trade transfer are the most possibilities worth discussing.
Unlikely going globalization.Like the first wave of globalization between World War I and Great Depression, the current globalization ended in a disgraceful way, and the current globalization has also caused an increasingly strong rebound.Civilianism is looking up all over the world, focusing on the tension of income and wealth inequality. Because of concerns about scientific and technological innovation such as artificial intelligence, it will exacerbate employment security and is dominating political narrative.However, the most critical event leading to the end of the first wave of globalization was the World Trade plummeted 60%in the early 1930s.Although there is currently political dysfunction, the possibility of similar results today is extremely low.
Decumbling around the world is also unlikely.The world is more closely intertwined than ever, which is reflected in the explosive growth of the global value chain in the past 25 years.This has changed global competition from the past national models to more distributed competition between input, components, design and assembly function platforms.A recent research of the International Monetary Fund found that in the 20 years from 1993 to 2013, the global value chain contributed a total of 73%to the rapidly growing global trade.The irreversible trend of transportation costs has declined sharply, as well as scientific and technological breakthroughs in logistics and procurement, which makes the global value chain that supports global economy integration, and there is almost no risk of decoupling.
Trade transfer is another matter.I have long pointed out that bilateral trade conflicts and even bilateral decircation cannot solve multilateral imbalances.Pressing one of the many trading partners, and this is the action that the United States takes its actions to China in order to reduce its commodity trade deficit with 102 countries, which may be counterproductive.This is because the multilateral trade deficit in the United States reflects the serious shortage of domestic savings, and as the federal budget deficit is out of control, this problem will only worsen.
If you do not solve this long -term savings problem, it is nothing more than Chinese parts of the United States' multilateral deficit to other trading partners.This transfer will turn trade to foreign purchases with higher costs, which is equivalent to increasing taxes to American consumers.
Regardless of whether the trade is or not, the protracted economic wrestling between the United States and China has begun.The current ceasefire of the war is just a political expedient. This is likely to be a long -lasting Cold War conflict, which should make the United States lacking a long -term strategic framework.This is not the case in China.This is undoubtedly the information that the grandson wants to convey in his book grandson's warfare: the husband is not a war, and the temple is considered a lot.(Editing: It is expected to win before the war, because the planning is thorough and the victory conditions are sufficient)
(The author Stephen S.Roach is a teacher of Yale University, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and author of imbalances: The United States and China are mutually dependent: The CodePependency of American).)
Original English: After the us-china trade war
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
