Focus: For the DPRK nuclear, the Security Council is not on a channel at all

Cao Xin: Among the two lines around the North Korean nuclear, one is the real core.That important line is undoubtedly in North Korea and the United States, not the United Nations.

Last week was the most incredible week to deal with the North Korean issue.

First, China and Russia are one side to partially lift sanctions on North Korea in the joint national strength map.Reuters reported on December 16: According to a draft UN resolution seen by Reuters, China and Russia proposed that the United Nations Security Council on Monday to lift the ban on North Korean export statues, seafood and textiles.The draft also called for the dismissal of the ban on working overseas to work overseas, and asked for the termination of the provisions that the overseas North Korean workers returned to the country before the 22nd of this month before the implementation of the 2017 resolution.The draft also proposed that railway and highway cooperation projects in North Korea should not be sanctioned by the United Nations.As a result, the three interests of China, Russia and South Korea have emerged.The draft also called for the recovery of the six -party talks that had been announced by North Korea, or started multilateral negotiations in any other similar model.However, an official of the US State Department said: It is not considering the release of sanctions on the DPRK.

It is strange that North Korea expressed its silence on the above actions of China, Russia and South Korea. It seems that North Korea is not in a hurry, and it seems that it has nothing to do with himself.

It turned out that the United States rushed to South Korea at the door of North Korea to find North Korea.The United States has visited South Korea for North Korea ’s representative Big Gen since the 15th of this month. Bagan and South Korean officials publicly demanded to see North Korean officials at a press conference, and said that North Korean officials know where to find our U.S. officials.Bigan also claimed that he would stay in South Korea for three days and wait for North Korean officials to find him.As a result, it was unfortunate that until the 17th, it was half a day, and North Korean officials did not come to see Bigan, so he visited Japan that day.But then Bagan came to China on the 19th, and it is said that this was a visit to his plan.The report said: Big Gen came to China to ask China and the United States to coordinate action against North Korea.There are also reports: Bigen meets North Korea in Beijing.

All this description: Among the two lines around the North Korean nuclear, one line is the real core, and the other line is just a form, and some of the front -line personnel know that the other line is little or even ignorant.This important line is undoubtedly in North Korea and the United States, not the United Nations.

Why is North Korea silent now?

The author wrote last Monday that in order to completely resolve the effective destruction of Trump's re -election in Trump, it can help Trump's reelection, allow Japan and South Korea to pay more security fees to the United States in the futureNuclear curbing China, and also using the consequences of the North Korean nuclear itself to curb the purpose of North Korea itself, the United States should have prepared to support the nuclear facts in the name of North Korea in the name of Nuclear frozen, and may already know North Korea at the staff level.This has actually shown a clue in his speech at the United Nations representative in the United Nations on the 12th.Last week, North Korea's silence should be related to this; similarly, the purpose of seeing North Korean officials in the past few days should be the same.

For North Korea, nuclear freezing is the goal of its generations. It can completely solve the problem of its status of nuclear national support in the way of supporting the nuclear, and it is completed with the United States.At the same time, it can also use the United States to acquiesce against North Korea's nuclear nuclear to cooperate with South Korea, Russia, and even economic cooperation with Northeast China to truly turn the domestic work centers in North Korea to economic work.In order to achieve its own goals, North Korea must take the following steps:

Slowing the pace and creating psychological effects on the United States in order to improve the increase in the United States, at least the next step is to go smoothly.The more the opportunity is coming, the more you need to grasp the rhythm. This characteristic of North Korea ’s diplomacy has always been very clear.According to North Korea, North Korea has made such a great stimulus to Trump, which is currently centered on campaign re -election, which shows that in the first half of this year, North Korea has established the Trump campaign re -election as the starting point to curb the United States, pressing over the United States, pressing the United States, pressing the United States, pressing over the United States, pressing the United States, pressing the United States, pressing the United States, pressing the United States, pressing the United States, pressing the United States, pressing the United States, pressing the United States, and pressing the United States.The United States' strategy to make concessions on North Korea's nuclear and sanctions is to find the right direction.Since the United States is anxious, it is not necessary to be more urgent than the United States. Instead, it is necessary to stabilize the rhythm and create diplomatic psychological effects. In this way, it will be relatively easy to deal with this matter with the United States in the future.Of course, before that, it must not stimulate North Korea, otherwise things will move towards the opposite side.This is why North Korea's behavior didn't feel anxious last week.

Secondly, North Korea must be systematically considered: Once the nuclear freezing of North Korea is really implemented, facing the upcoming changes in Sino -DPRK relations, Sino -US relations, and East Asian international relations.Countermeasures in related countries.

For example, what will China's nuclear freezing position on North Korea, whether China has long adhered to whether the Korean Peninsula's nuclear non -nuclear policy will persist and how to maintain China -DPRK relations in the future.Similarly, in North Korea and the United States relations, North Korea should stand with the United States to curb China, or does it maintain a balance between China and the United States to make a profit on both sides?

Also, what will happen in the future of North Korea and the United States?Will the United States trust North Korea?How about the United States allies Japan and South Korea?If North Korea falls to the United States, can the North Korean regime and family rule continue to exist and so on.

In addition, the operation of nuclear frozen also requires specific strategies so that they can be ease in the future.

Another important thing in North Korea is: Nuclear frozen, future treatment and Sino -US relations, and economic cooperation with the Russian Far East, North Korea needs to discuss with Russia.North Korea actually hopes that Russia's acquiescence of Russia's nuclear support for the facts of North Korea has become its allies, while actively participating in Russia's Far East Development.North Korea, which is surrounded by a large country, must be considered and prepared in this way.

In addition, the Central Plenary Session of the Domestic Labor Party must also prepare related matters.

All of the above need to be considered in advance. Although this is the dream of several generations of North Korean leaders, it is really ready to be fully prepared.

In this way, it is necessary to wait a few days to discuss a year -on -year discussion.Trump is really anxious now. The domestic impeachment case in the United States has been disturbed. North Korea cannot have any problems, otherwise he will really not run for re -election.

The result of things will not be surprised

From the perspective of the actual interests of all parties, unless the relevant party needs important changes, the chances of North Korea's nuclear freezing targets are small.To be honest, this is related to the background of China's rise, and it is also related to the current way of dealing with some things.

For North Korea, the nuclear freezing actually means that its status of supporting the nuclear country defaults. It undoubtedly solves the nuclear dream of the three generations of North Korean leaders since Kim Il Sung.The above is the power of China.

In addition, after solving the status of actual nuclear national support, North Korea can truly shift the work center to economic construction in the next step without worrying about the Security Council's sanctions resolution.Because if the United States defaults to North Korea's nuclear frozen, the series of Security Council can be overhead the decision to the North Korea.Imagine that since the United States defaults to North Korea's nuclear freezing, will the United States curb economic cooperation with South Korea and North Korea at that time?South Korean officials also said in front of U.S. officials a few days ago that it is necessary to vigorously develop economic collaboration between South Korea, North Korea, and Russia, and it is clear that the direction of cooperation is: power, energy, and railway connecting the three places.Similarly, will the United States curb economic cooperation between Russia and North Korea?What about Northeast China?The answer is not confessed.In fact, for the small economies of North Korea, economic cooperation between China, Russia and South Korea is enough.

For the United States, North Korea's nuclear frozen is military in military.At present, the re -election that Trump is about to begin will not be maliciously destroyed by North Korea.In the long run, the actual nuclear status brought by North Korean nuclear frozen and the inevitable nationalist emotions will be objectively separated from Sino -DPRK relations. Who will the nuclear power mainly do in the future?The conclusion is clear.There are many ways to solve their security concerns about the Japanese and Korean allies that do not support their nuclear: the United States can use the banner of defending the allies, and strengthen the nuclear curb and detection power in the Asia -Pacific local.North Korea can curb China.In addition, the United States sells nuclear containment of weapons and detection equipment, training alliance personnel, and even the local U.S. military, which can collect money from the allies.

And Russia, no matter what, just two things are reality.The first is that the diplomatic community is currently rumored that because of the loosening of the Russian and Ukraine problems, Russian -US relations have signs of gentle relations.The second is that because the North Korean nuclear freezing brings the North Korean work center to really turn to the economy, its economic cooperation with South Korea and Russia has enabled President Putin to develop a few years ago and with energy and transportation as the core.Actually landed.Russia's interests are actually very clear.

Fundamentally, the rapid rise of China as a great country to the world, especially the surrounding countries, is inevitable and natural, but it is precisely to remember at this time.Profit.The author believes that in addition to the government and ruling party of the other country, China does not need to conflict with the other party directly as the media, the opposition party, social organization, and even the enterprise.Represented the government.The appropriate approach is to respond with technical and detailed ways, or to communicate with media reports and non -governmental diplomacy. Generally, Chinese government personnel are not required to directly respond to such behaviors.reaction.According to Jin Yong, a well -known newspaper in Hong Kong: When he founded the Ming Pao in Hong Kong, he just happened to have many economic refugees in the mainland. The small newspapers he had just organized had no money to hire reporters.With the official way, it was very formal every day to fight back and criticized. As a result, not only the effect of public opinion was extremely poor, but it was popular to be popular at the time.This lesson should not be forgotten today.

(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.