Society: Stage Agreement Sino -US trade war is not scattered

Social Theory December 16, 2019

Washington and Beijing announced simultaneously last Friday that the two sides reached the so -called first -stage agreement on the trade dispute.The 80 -page agreement text will be signed in January next year.Once implemented, the agreement may alleviate the impact of the Sino -US trade war to the global economy.However, in view of the game experience of China and the United States for more than this year, people must not be cautious about the effect of the agreement.The changes in the nature of Sino -US relations and the complex domestic factors of the two countries may cause the trade war to die.

Although the agreement did not resolve the core dispute between the Sino -US trade war, the Asian stock market still welcomed this active development.The Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets have risen after the China -US reaching agreement, reflecting the market's concerns about the impact of the global economy on the trade war. Any good news even a little positive can encourage investors to morale.However, the limitations of the agreement itself, the relationship between China and the United States from cooperation to competition and even confrontation, and the changes in domestic political conditions of the two countries have made the possibility of suspension of trade war.

US President Trump hinted that the first phase of the agreement was the alliance under the city signed with China, because the trade war on the Chinese economy was far more impact than the United States.Of course, of course, there is no intention to disrupt the opponent's heart, but partially reflects the reality.Various data show that China's economic trend has continued to slow, domestic unemployment pressure has risen sharply, and local governments and corporate debt have intensified, forcing the authorities to reduce the forecast of subsequent economic growth, and repeatedly emphasize the importance of stable economic and social people's hearts.

Like any war, killing one thousand enemies and damage to 800 self -damage. Although the US economic data is relatively good, the entry tariffs levied on Chinese goods will eventually be borne by American consumers.As for the agricultural county that is regarded as Trump's ticket warehouse, the conclusions obtained by different investigations are not consistent. It is said that American farmers still support Trump's trade war against China.EssenceIn any case, the United States has always mastered the fact that the dominance of the trade war has had to agree with the Chinese academic community.

The first phase of the agreement announced last Friday was mainly based on the United States without adding tariffs to in exchange for China's promise to increase the import of the United States.From the perspective of the freedom market principle, the arrangement of the principle of natural supply and demand is obviously unsustainable.The points that the two sides are focusing on the news are different, and some points are ambiguous, it is not difficult to see the clue.In addition, the United States continues to encircle Chinese technology and markets in 5G communication technology; geopolitical intervention in the chaos and Xinjiang affairs through legislation, and inclined to oppose the unified DPP on cross -strait topics, which means that any subject may be possible, which may be possible.In the future, the negotiation results of the two parties in the field of trade.

In the first stage, the trade agreement was also regarded as Trump's intention to transfer domestic political pressure to make a role in re -election next year.The U.S. House of Representatives just decided to pass the launch of Trump's impeachment procedures.Although this political movement is generally not optimistic, it can be successful, but it is enough to shake the intermediate voters' perception of him.Faced with these negative factors, Trump needs to maintain the enthusiastic power MDASH; mdash; claims that China makes concessions to the United States in trade negotiations because of his operations.Essence

The development of the situation in Hong Kong may also be derailed by Sino -US trade negotiation.So far, Beijing has obtained a considerable restraint between the United States' intervention in Hong Kong's affairs and trade consultations, so that the former is not allowed to interfere with the latter.The Hong Kong fighting group has repeatedly upgraded through violence and puts huge political pressure on Beijing. One of the means is to introduce US factor.They can't guarantee new strategies to seduce Washington further.At that time, the Chinese nationalist emotions that are provoked may be limited to the response space of China's decision -making layer.

These variables all highlight the huge uncertainty faced by Sino -US trade war.Even if the first phase of the agreement is really implemented, there are still many contradictions that bilateral trade needs to deal with in the future, especially in difficult fields such as intellectual property rights and structural reforms in China.In addition to trade, the logic of the game between China and the United States will also impact the prospects of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries from time to time.Entering 2020, Trump's presidential election campaign will be fierce, and during the period of various potential changes, any item is enough for the direction of Sino -US relations.Therefore, the cheers issued by the Asia -Pacific stock market for the first stage agreement have a somewhat subjective and joyful desire to celebrate the festival at the end of the year.When the year is closed, the real test will just start.