In the 2020 election of Taiwan, under the influence of the climate of the inside and outside, it is not just a decision who will govern Taiwan's next four years.The turning point of cross -strait relations may be born after this election.An observation point of the new architecture of cross -strait relations is whether the DPP will continue to be fully governed.

Is it possible for the DPP to maintain a complete governance status again?If in the nine -in -one election in Taiwan last year, I am afraid that few people would think so.But this is not just a testimony of public opinion such as flowing water, but it is still determined by the large climate change that is shrouded in cross -strait relations.This climate is Sino -US relations.

If you simply summarize cross -strait relations since 1949, you can be divided into two nodes according to Sino -US relations.First, when the three joint communiqués of China and the United States were born, although the fate of Taiwan has since been protected by the Taiwan Relations Law, it has been avoided directly to the mainland's unified pressure.

But since then, especially during the period of Jiang Jingguo, he had to seek self -protection in Taiwan under such a transformation of a climate.Although unified China is still its goal during this period, it has obviously become unrealistic.Under the pressure of diagram, political opening up internally, realizing democratic politics, and turning to localization.Accepting the fact that the Republic of China may always only be retained in Taiwan is probably unable to deny Jiang Jing's domestic heart.From this, Li Denghui came to power later.

The China -US triangle relations established by the three joint communiqués of China and the United States are a major climate.The climate that eventually formed within Taiwan was the local faction represented by Lee Teng -hui, as well as the emergence of the DPP ’s local party, and eventually realized the first governance in 2000.

However, despite the rise of local political forces in Taiwan, due to this period of Sino -US relations staying in a friendly atmosphere, although the rise of Taiwan ’s independence forces, it is difficult to change the substantial changes in cross -strait relations.It should not be ignored that the cross -strait, including the Lee Teng -hui period, is a special state and state relations. It has shown the impact of Taiwan's local political forces on the internal political structure of Taiwan, and has gradually represented the mainstream of Taiwan's political consciousness.The identity of identity is increasing.

Therefore, even if Ma Ying -jeou re -governed from 2008 to 2016, the Taiwanese people's identity became the mainstream, which is still an irreversible trend.The continuation of this trend with the current Sino -US relations may ensure that the DPP will continue to be fully governed after 2020.

In simple terms, the climate of Sino -US relations has changed, which is the second node.The cross -strait relations system established by the three joint communiqués of China and the United States has been disintegrated with Trump's election and his reorganization of Sino -US relations.The reversal of this climate will be changed like the transformation of a large climate in the 1980s, affecting the direction of Taiwan's internal politics.

The difference is that at that time, the climate of the climate restrained the climate of Taiwan and suppressed the development of the local natives and Taiwan independence forces. Now it is the same as it, regarding mainland China as competitors and even enemies.In this way, after the 2020 election, if the DPP continues to be completely in power, cross -strait relations will inevitably have a more fundamental reversal and form a new relationship structure.

Can the DPP be fully governed again?This is possible.Not only will Tsai Ing -wen be re -elected, but even the Democratic Progressive Party may still obtain a majority seat in the Legislative Yuan.Although Tsai Ing -wen's achievements are not outstanding, hate the representative voices of the DPP in 2018, and even the local elections in Taiwan, but now at the time of the election of the entire Taiwan, the poor party election process of the Kuomintang has made the people of Taiwan treat this to this.The party only disappointed again.

South Korea ’s Yu has been in a defense after becoming a Kuomintang candidate, and it is difficult to reproduce the momentum of the 2018 elections. In addition, the DPP’ s re -standing team and integration after the primary election, in comparison, the possibility of victory in the Kuomintang has greatly become greatweaken.

In terms of legislators of the Legislative Yuan, the election system in Taiwan is conducive to the two major parties.Although Ke Wenzhe's people's party, Song Chuyu's parental Party, and the power of the times will impact some seats, in view of the overall momentum and the combat effectiveness and popularity of various candidates, it is difficult to gain great gain.The Kuomintang may be able to drive the election because of the weakness of the hens, and the list of non -partition legislators is widely criticized. It will be an impossible task to obtain a majority in the Legislative Yuan.In this way, the Democratic Progressive Party may not only continue to govern, but also continue to be fully governed.

In the first time in power, the Democratic Progressive Party can already do so arrogantly; if the second full governance is achieved, in the words of Cai Yingwen's own, a reelection of the president who is like a Mustang is like a Mustang.Continue to abuse power.Under the strategic competition relationship, the Democratic Political Scarlette relations will likely cause mutations.So how will Beijing deal with it?

Now think about it, if it wasn't for millions of continent people to move to Taiwan in 1949, cross -strait relations may have become more alienated.It's just that 70 years have passed. How many people and things can be contacted by the mainland and Taiwan in the future?If you think about it, I'm afraid it will only be even more boo.What kind of strength should Beijing be convinced to convince Taiwanese people?Article 31 and 26 measures in Huitai have been introduced, but the effectiveness of these policies is far less direct and powerful than a movement in Hong Kong.So what will Beijing?

The author is Beijing Freelance