Deng Qingbo
How to load the human history in December 2019 is a question worthy of being vigilant.
History is a mirror.Many young Chinese people have regarded December as a day of celebrating Christmas, and many Chinese people still remember that on November 15th, Eighteenth (December 31, 1838), the Emperor of the Qing Dynasty officially appointed Lin Zexu for itThe minister of the minister Guan Defense was sent to Guangdong (opium).The follow -up evolution of this decision was the first Opium War that broke out in 1840.The war forced China and the Britain to sign the Nanjing Treaty, which brought a series of consequences, including the Hong Kong Island to cut it to the United Kingdom, and it also indicates that modern China has been invaded by the powers and reduced to the edge of the dead.
In fact, the origin of the Opium War was presented with the trade friction between China and Britain.After the British completed the industrial revolution, the productive forces leaped sharply. As a result, a large market was urgently needed to be exported by goods. China is just the ideal dumping place.At that time, China was an independent feudal country. Luxury goods such as tea, silk, and porcelain produced in the European market were selling well in the European market. Chinese farmers who are used to self -sufficient Chinese farmers cannot afford industrial products such as wool, woolen velvet, etc.Bring a huge trade deficit to Britain.
Trade frictions cannot bring serious financial problems.Britain has implemented gold -based monetary policy in the 18th century, while the Qing court of China use silver as currency. Therefore, Britain must purchase silver from the European continent for trade purposes, and its profits are further damaged.The severe situation in trade and finance has made the tax rate prominent: China has a 20%high tax rate on the British import goods.
Until the 1920s and 1930s, China still maintained a status of over two or three million silver every year.In order to change this unfavorable trade situation, Britain was initially strongly put pressure on diplomacy and failed to achieve the goal.So they found another huge profiteering way to sell black slaves from Africa to the Americas, and smuggled a large number of special products MDash; mdash; opium.Opinity has brought huge profits to British capitalists and governments, and finally caused Britain to reverse the unfavorable situation in China -British trade.China has changed from a super country to a super country for more than 200 years.
Therefore, when the emperor of the Qing Dynasty, the emperor of the mediocre Chinese, was alert that the opium may bring the disaster of race and decide to bans smoke.After a series of diplomatic games invalid, Britain finally dispatched warships with the absolute advantage of military strength and launched a war against China.
This war was called the first Opium War by Chinese historians.Because of the time after a while, the Western power that tasted the sweetness launched the Second Opium War. From October 1856 to October 1860, Britain and France were supported by the United States and Russia, and jointly launched the war of invasion of China.The purpose of Britain and France is to further open the Chinese market and expand the benefits of aggression in China, while the United States and Russia have taken the opportunity to divide the stolen stolen.Britain and France launched a war on the pretext of the Airo incident and the Ma Shenfu incident, so the British were called the Arrow War.
The consequences of this war are even more terrible. China cuts far more than 1.5 million square kilometers of territory that far exceeds Hong Kong. The treasure of human civilization is a series of humiliation agreements such as the Treaty of the Treaty of Tianjin Treaty.
Two opium wars, the independent China quickly pushed to the situation of the semi -colonial land, funeral and humiliated the country, and the people did not talk about life.
In contrast to the Sino -US trade friction and the Sino -British trade conflict of the year
Looking back at history, of course, to compare reality.Today's Sino -US trade friction is similar to the Sino -British trade conflict of that year.Like China ’s long -term trade surplus to Britain, China has also maintained a large surplus for the United States for a long time; as China -British trade has brought huge financial losses to Britain, China has begun to make Wall Street financial capitalists uneasy; withThe United Kingdom is difficult to endure the high tariffs of the Qing government. The United States now feels that tariffs with China are a problem that must be solved. Like British science and technology and military power far surpassed China, the United States still maintains military strength to China.The absolute advantage of science and technology and other aspects; like the trade friction between China and Britain that year cannot reach a acceptable agreement that both parties can be reached through diplomatic channels, the Sino -US trade agreement also said that the stop and stop is always difficult to produce, and both parties are unwilling to yield.Midea announced on December 13 that the first phase of trade agreement was reached).
Even as an important bargaining chip like opium, such as opium, the Sino -U.S. Trade negotiations are now interfered by a drug.Although China has strongly controlled Finynes, the United States has repeatedly accused too many fentanyls from flowing into the United States from China, causing American drug users to suffer it.
History and reality are actually so similar or even the same. Will there be a third Opium War between China and the United States today?
At present, even though they are the most bold scholars, it is predicted that China and the United States are sliding into the New Cold War.I also thought that the conflict between China and the United States and the contradictions between China and the United States would at least maintain no war.China and the United States are all nuclear powers, and the direct war between the two sides seems impossible because it is terrible.
However, many of the worst tragedies in human history happened when everyone thinks it is impossible, which includes the First and Second World War.Politics is a kind of movement, and the acceleration will make the movement more and more intense until the rollover.Because of the increase in trade frictions and competition, China and the United States have adopted more and more confrontation between the two sides, which will push Sino -US relations on the track that cannot brake.
In particular, we must be vigilant that with the development of the Internet, today's politics is even more instigated by media public opinion.Just as Hitler, who came to power through democratic elections at that time, wrapped Germany to launch a war with the banner of democracy; today's U.S. election system also has such hidden dangers. Politicians have to do everything possible to cater to public opinion and incite public opinion for votes.Stimulate public opinion.Therefore, they may all take the hostility to China as the most convenient and effective ways to collect more domestic contradictions and stimulate voters to patriotic mood, so as to harvest more votes and consolidate self -power.
Water can carry a boat or cover the boat.The public opinion that cater to, incite, induce, and stimulates will be as addictive as opium. In turn, it will cause capitalists and politicians to have no retreat, and they can only increase their biased policies to China.
In this case, when American politicians and capitalists feel that the United States still has absolute advantages in various aspects of Chinese economy, military, technology, etc. When repeated negotiations cannot reach a trade agreement that makes them satisfactory, it is difficult to say that war will not become them.Consider options.
There are too many convenient war fuses between China and the United States.Any wave of any waves in the South China Sea, Taiwan Sea, Diaoyu Islands, and even the Korean Peninsula may be used as an excuse for American warships and aircraft to approach China.Like the opium at that time, Fantini smuggling may become a reason for the United States to provoke a conflict with China, just as they said that Iraq had large -scale killing weapons.
The war always needs only the driver of power desire, and there is never a lack of opportunities.The United States launched the third Opium War in China, which is not only possible, but also the probability is not small.
However, the reason why reality is different from history is that it will always have new possibilities.Obviously, China today is not the Qing Dynasty in the Qing Dynasty nearly two centuries.China has obtained the US trade surplus no longer relying on porcelain, tea, silk and other primary products. Instead, there are more and more popular global industrial products, including Huawei products, and those who resist the invaders are no longer a spear.
In the face of the severe changes in the world situation, China will no longer choose to lock the country. Instead, it is more actively practicing Sun Yat -sen and the world's thoughts to wait for the nation of my nation, and choose to jointly compete with unilateralism and hegemonism with more countries.All these changes were sacrificed by the Chinese for more than 100 years.
Today, if any country's politicians and interest groups are trying to launch to ChinaThe third Opium War must think deeply about the possibility: they will not achieve the kind of victory that the British and Western powers such as the United States, the United States, Russia, and France have achieved in history.
But the real problem is not even here, but even if politicians and interest groups have already thought of this possibility, the trade friction that has been launched may become more and more intense, bringing more unsaptible conflicts, caught in a vicious circle, and eventually breaks through Sino -US relations.Treasures of peace.If so, history will not forgive their greed and stupidity.
The author is Chinese current affairs commentator
Taiwan Strait Relations and Public Opinion Researchers
Obviously, China today is not the Qing Dynasty in the Qing Dynasty nearly two centuries.China has obtained the US trade surplus no longer relying on porcelain, tea, silk and other primary products. Instead, there are more and more popular global industrial products, including Huawei products, and those who resist the invaders are no longer a spear.
