What are the options for the U.S. and North Korea negotiation period?

Source: Reuters

North Korea felt deeply frustrated because the United States lacked elasticity during negotiations and asked the United States to change its policy before the end of the year, otherwise leader Kim Jong -un may embark on a new road.

Despite the three years of efforts and the unprecedented three -time meeting of Kim Jong -un and Trump, the future negotiations on the future of North Korea ’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile libraries are still stagnant.

Why is Kim Jong -un's new road? At present, it is still difficult to see through the idea of this North Korean leader and its core circle. However, the warnings issued by the Korean official media on the last period cannot be ignored.

Reuters contacted the Observer of the North Korean issue around the world to understand what actions Kim Jong -un took in the New Year.Limited by space, the response content of the interviewees has been edited.

Christopher Green:

It is likely to change towards radical direction, but it does depend on the development of the situation from now to the end of the year.(The North Korean Labor Party Leader is later this month) The meeting may pretend to be regrettable, saying that the Labor Party must now use resources to develop military affairs.They are likely to decide that all people really remember the North Korean launch satellite in the 2020 diary.But on the other hand, if new trends with negotiations with the United States, North Korea may also find excuses to overthrow their ultimatum.At present, the script of the meeting can still be changed, but it will not work too long.

Jenny Town, 38 -degree website of the north latitude of Stimson Center:

If North Korea has a large movement, such as testing ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) or launching satellites, it is not surprising, even before the end of the year.On the other hand, if North Korea takes excessive provocations, it may lose support from China and Russia, which does not meet the greater goal of North Korea's sustainable economic development.Therefore, it depends on North Korea's understanding of the Red Line of China and Moscow, and they may still avoid such things as nuclear weapons tests to maintain the cooperation arrangements they can establish.

Former South Korea ’s national security deputy adviser and the first official (deputy minister) Zhao Taiyong:

There are three options-nuclear tests, missile tests, and traditional provocations.The risk of nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) tests is too high, because Trump can no longer brag about North Korea without conducting major tests, and any test of the two will cause the United Nations Security Council to issue resolutions, especially for particularly, especiallyNuclear tests can trigger strong opposition in China.Therefore, they may take conventional means, such as military provocation of South Korea in West China, but this does not work for Trump or others.Therefore, North Korea is likely to choose a missile test, which may be a long -range ballistic missile that can be reserved as a satellite launch as a satellite launch.

Former US State Department's senior expert in North Korea, Evans J. R. Revere:

Although we cannot thoroughly rule out the possibility of conducting nuclear tests or intercontinental ballistic missiles, any of the two will be regarded as highly provocative and dangerous by the United States or other countries.Among the mobile lists that may be taken by North Korea I listed, the most likely possibility is lsquo; satellite launch RSquo; or medium -range ballistic missile test, fly over Japan into the North Pacific.Kim Jong -un may have a reason to think that the United States' response will be as small as other ballistic missile tests recently conducted by the country.

Vladivostak (Vladivostok) ARTYOM LUKIN:

I still remember the conversation with a North Korean official in June last year. He was sharply asked if North Korea did not obtain the US sanctions and thus adopted a tough action, what would Russia react?I replied that if the situation in North Korea is upgraded, Russia will basically follow China.I still have such a view.The most intriguing question is whether Pyongyang has received the consent of Beijing to upgrade its confrontation with the United States.We can't know.But my assumption is that if Kim Jong -un launched a long -range missile, China would not mind.The nuclear test is another matter-if North Korea resume the nuclear test explosion, I think China will be unhappy.

NK News senior analyst Rachel MINYOUNG Lee:

Kim Jong -un announced the policy transformation at the General Party's General Assembly (may), including the cancellation of some decisions at the overall conference in April 2018. The first to cancel will be the decision to stop the ICBM and nuclear test.North Korea may conduct a test to show its determination. The time may be the day or the next few days on the day or the next few days.I think the initial test may be small, which may be a medium -range missile, one satellite, or another submarine -to -ballistic missile (SLBM), and then gradually upgrade next year.I think North Korea is likely to return to and enter the policy (the policy of developing military and economy simultaneously), or a certain version of the merger policy ... This is given the more delicate and important release of official Korean media in the past four months.message.

Yang Xiyu, a researcher at the China Institute of International Issues:

The new road is about self -reliance, developing the economy independently, and not relying on foreign countries.The other parts are developing rockets.Recently, North Korea has continuously launched missiles, which is actually a forecast or warning.In the past, they said that they would lift sanctions against them through dialogue and then develop their economy.However, if you can't see the hope of lift sanctions through dialogue, they will return to the way of self -reliance.