Near the years, US -DPRK relations seem to return to a state of tension two years ago.North Korea reminds the gift package received by the United States on Christmas depends on what measures the United States takes; Trump once again called Kim Jong -un as a small rocket during the NATO summit.
Senior North Korean officials shouted to the United States through the official media statement and interacted with Twitter's Twitter. It can be said that Twitter diplomacy between the United States and North Korea was displayed in this way.
North Korea ’s labor party chairman Kim Jong -un proposed in April this year that he hopes that the United States will adopt a new policy of North Korea, and North Korea will wait until the end of the year.The end of the year is about to expire, and the prospect of US -DPRK relations seems to be reproduced yesterday.After North Korea conducted the sixth nuclear test in 2017, Trump once called Kim Jong -un as a small Rocketman and threatened to completely destroy North Korea.In the 2018 New Year's congratulatory words, Kim Jong -un once mentioned that he held the nuclear button, while Trump showed off his stronger nuclear weapons.
In the recent American -DPRK interaction, similar threat words reproduce, which is a signal with a turning point.Since the meeting of the US -DPRK leaders in 2018, although there are twists and turns, both the United States and North Korea have adhered to the basic bottom line, that is, the leaders of the two sides have maintained a better private relationship.
Did the US -North Korea relations enter the crisis in December?
First, Trump said at the NATO summit that the United States has the most powerful force and hopes not to use it, but if necessary, it will also use it.Although the tone is relatively ease, this is the return of war to deterring words in the past two years.The second is that in less than two months, Chairman Kim Jong -un's decision on Mount Ma Baitou, it shows that North Korea will have a major policy introduction.Park Jung Chuan, Chief of Staff of the Korean People's Army, also issued a statement that the United States and North Korea were still in a state of armistice; in fact, North Korea torn the armistice agreement in 2013.Third, the UN sanctions on North Korea's sanctions expired in the end of this month, and the New Year's appointment proposed by North Korea will also come. The Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Labor Party held at the end of the month may have a political decision.Essence
The US -DPRK relations seem to have deteriorated sharply because the light brought by the head meeting and did not melt the ice of US -DPRK relations.The game structure of the two sides is asymmetric. North Korea has obtained a qualification to negotiate with the United States through nuclear guidance development. However, in the process of nuclear development, the United Nations has adopted very severe sanctions.North Korea's goal is to gradually get rid of severe sanctions and achieve economic development through negotiations; and the goal of the United States is to force North Korea to relieve North Korea through negotiations.
The United States and North Korea have not had a basic consensus on the vocabulary of non -verification. The summit meeting has attracted high international attention. Trump and Kim Jong -un became the stars of the global diplomatic stage.Highlights.
The head of the head of the head has determined the direction of the US -DPRK relations, but it has not realized the conversion of bilateral relations structure, which brings two major problems: First, the head of the head of the head formed a certain path dependence.It is not used to solve the problem of affairs, which is a great waste of diplomatic resources.Second, the high -level consultation at the professional diplomacy has never made a breakthrough. At the Stockholm talks held in October this year, the North Korean representative announced the failure of the negotiations as soon as possible.
Diplomacy is a game and a compromise. The focus of the question is the chips of both parties and to what level to achieve compromise?North Korea's killer is nuclear weapons and long -range missiles. After the Singapore Summit, North Korea promised not to conduct nuclear tests and long -range missile launch.In the past year and a half, North Korea's nuclear guidance weapons have not been cash, and the US -South Korean military exercise has delayed or reduced scale to express their sincerity, but what North Korea wants to relieve the benefits of sanctions.
For Trump, maintaining the status quo is also acceptable, and it is also acceptable to the United States that can be accepted, and the United States has almost no substantial cost.For North Korea, the US -DPRK meeting achieved diplomatic breakouts and broke the state of isolation. However, there was no relaxation of the sanctions on North Korea, and the international environment of developing the economy was more deteriorated.cost.North Korea has continuously passed on its dissatisfaction signal through short -range missiles and test -shooting rocket launchers since May, hoping to force the United States to adopt a pragmatic and correct policy against North Korea.
North Korea's small movements have not caused ripples in the United States, and Bolton, a national security affairs assistant to the North Korean policy, has been fired.Only by continuously upgrading the challenges and deterrents of the United States can it form a new game point with the United States to seek American compromise.This uneven game structure, an incompetent confrontation situation is the fundamental reason for the difficulty of the United States and North Korea relations, and it is also the driving force for the continuous upgrade of the crisis in December.
The author is Jilin University
Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations
