China is currently the largest trading partner in 124 countries, and the United States is the largest trading partner of 56 countries.The United States is now under great pressure, with financial pressure, medical insurance, social insurance, and net interest pressure, and ordinary people are more worried; if the trend of aging of the population in China has not changed, the savings rate is also declining, and fiscal pressure will become more.Come bigger.Therefore, the two sun may seem to be two tigers, and they are very tired. In the end, the two parties are likely to decide that the right side of the mountain is my site, the left side of the mountain is your site, two points in the world.
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In the past 40 years, the wages of ordinary employees with a minimum income of 10%of the United States have not increased; the middle and lower classes with a minimum income of 30%have not increased much; the highest income is 5%, and the salary increases by 160%.A survey by the Pew Research Center's support for globalization of people in various countries also shows that China is the country in the world that supports globalization. About 60%of the Chinese people believe that trade globalization can increase their wages and employment opportunities.%Think so.
This is the main reason why President Trump came to power.Employment opportunities and wages are also affected by mechanization and automation.However, politicians crack down on mechanization and automation, without votes, and have votes in China.In factories in the United States, light industry is even more affected by Chinese manufacturing.The votes obtained in each state when Trump's election president in 2016 was very affected with the influence of China in China, and the correlation between the two reached 76%.
In the past, the United States' security and defense departments were required to suppress China, and American companies and Wall Street had to seek benefits in the Chinese market and balanced balance with the former.Ordinary white workers in the United States, which are hit by globalization, are anti -China, but they do not have much right to speak.Trump gave them a large microphone, coupled with Chinese manufacturing 2025, which made many corporate elites and high -tech workers in the United States start to be scared.From this point of view, the Sino -US competition is structural.
Trump's former private lawyer Kon was sentenced to three years in prison earlier this year because he paid a seal fee for him during the Trump campaign.If Trump fails in the 2020 election, he may also enter prison.There are five years of prosecution in US laws. Trump is an on -the -job president and cannot be sent to prison. If he loses the election in November next year, it may not be able to enter the prison before the crime time in 2016.Therefore, Trump's ultimate purpose is to continue to be elected in 2020 to avoid the prison.
Now the pressure of ordinary people in the United States is increasing, especially in the middle and lower classes. They all support Trump's voters.The tariff he levied was originally mainly targeted at industrial products and capital products. The most recently targeted $ 300 billion products were mainly consumer goods.I have always felt that he dare not impose tariffs on consumer goods, because it will hit the voters, so he wants to compromise now.
Trump also underestimated the combat effectiveness of China's economy and overestimated the strength of the United States.Now the manufacturing industry in the United States has begun to decline, and investor confidence has also been hit by uncertainty caused by the trade war.
Trump has recently sought to compromise with China, and another main reason is that the employment opportunities of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have begun to decrease and have become negative.These three states are the main reason why he won in 2016, but he only won tens of thousands of votes. If the unemployment rate of the three states rose, tens of thousands of votes will be reversed, so Trump's pressure is getting greater and greater.Essence
Let me talk about the second question. Is it too late to prevent China's development?
Around 1980, the total economic volume of New York State alone was equivalent to 80%of China, and China's volume was equal to a small country.
China's economy is now about $ 14 trillion, and it is about $ 1 trillion each year.I compared the Sino -US trade war and scientific and technological war into the United States who wanted to interrupt his legs before the Chinese basketball star Yao Ming grew up.The question now is, do you still have time to interrupt Yao Ming's legs?
In 2001, China's GDP (GDP) was 13%of the United States. At that time, the United States had begun to discuss how to suppress China.However, in 2001, a 911 terrorist attack, the United States shifted its attention to Islamic terrorism, and China became an American allies.This is why China has joined the World Trade Organization for many years. Three months after the 911 incident, on December 11, 2001, China entered the World Trade Organization to achieve economic take -off.opportunity.The second is that in 2008, Obama was going to hit China after the stage, but the financial crisis shifted the attention of the United States to the country.The United States has two tries to focus on cracking down on China, because two crises have shifted the attention of the United States, allowing China to have stable development in the past 20 years.
What happened in the past 20 years?In 2008, based on the US dollar, China's GDP was 31%of the United States. By 2018, it reached 66%of the United States.If you look at the actual purchasing power, China GDP is already 1.23 times that of the United States, which is almost even more powerful.
Continue to use Yao Ming as a metaphor, the peak age of the NBA star is 27.7 years.In 2001, China's GDP was 13%of the United States, and 13%of the 27.7 years old was 3.6 years old. In other words, Yao Ming was only 3.6 years old in 2001 and could kill him in the cradle.By 2010, Yao Ming was 8.6 years old and could still interrupt his legs.However, in 2018, Yao Ming was 18.3 years old and could hurt his legs, but it was not easy to interrupt.So the former US President Carter said internally, and he said that he regretted it a little, which made China catch up.
Third, the development of the domestic market size.In the future competition in China and the United States, there are two main weapons and competitive advantages in China, one is the domestic market, and the other is the cooperation between private enterprises and state -owned enterprises in high -tech innovation.
According to the data of worldwide income inequality databases, in 1990, 50%of the most poor population in the world was in China; in 2016, there were still many poor people in China, but even the 50%of the world's richest people, evenAmong the richest 10%to 20%, the proportion of Chinese people has increased a lot.
In 2003, China's domestic consumption contributed 35%to GDP growth.In other words, two -thirds from investment and exports at the time of China's GDP's increase in the motorcycles.By 2019, China's domestic consumption contribution to GDP growth has been close to 70%, becoming the most important driving force for driving GDP growth.This is actually related to the younger generation of Chinese people. The savings rate of Chinese people from 20 to 45 years old is relatively low and consumption is relatively high.If the United States in 2003, the domestic consumption in China only hit one -third of the GDP locomotive power to fight against China, and China had to surrender.But it is difficult now, because the motorcycles of the domestic locomotive are too powerful.
This is why China's economy has been affected in one and a half years since the trade war, but the most hit is Europe, Japan, and South Korea, which is greater than China and the United States.Therefore, the trade war seems to be fighting in the forest, and the elephant will flow some blood, but the biggest hit is the wolf, deer, and small squirrel.
Fourth, the long -term scientific and technological domineering competition between China and the United States.In 2019, 494 unicorn companies around the worldThe industry is an unlisted science and technology innovation enterprise with a valuation of more than $ 1 billion. There are 206 in China and 203 in the United States. This makes the United States very worried.In 2018, about 47%of the world's unicorns were American companies, 30%came from China, and China has now begun to surpass the United States.Other countries, such as India, Germany, and Israel, their unicorn is very small.In other words, there are only two horses in the high -tech competition in the entire world, and the others are donkeys.
From the perspective of the number of global international patent applications, according to the data of the World Intellectual Property Organization, the number of international patent applications in China has begun to increase, and the gap between the United States has narrowed.Of course, the quantity is a problem, and the quality is also a problem, but in general, the number of Chinese patents is increasing and the quality is also increasing.If you analyze from an enterprise, the enterprise with the most patents is Huawei, surpassing Discovery, Qualcomm, and Samsung, and Huawei's application patent is more than double the second and third companies.So from the perspective of the US strategic point of view, Huawei is a great threat.
China has also begun to catch up in the best artificial intelligence papers published.The United States is now worried that although many new breakthroughs and research in the field of artificial intelligence are in the United States, four of the 10 top researchers are Chinese in the top artificial intelligence research institutions in the United States.
Fifth, future outlook and strategy.Finally, we analyze the general trend 20 years later.In 1950, GDP in the United States accounted for about 50%of the world's GDP. This seems to be a big sun, with a lot of gravity, and Saturn and Jupiter are obediently around.In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has increased by 40 times in the past 40 years. China has become a big sun, forming two solar systems coexisting in the sun.The situation becomes very complicated. Does Saturn and Jupiter walk around the old sun or walk around the new sun?
China is currently the largest trading partner in 124 countries, and the United States is the largest trading partner of 56 countries.The United States is now under great pressure, with financial pressure, medical insurance, social insurance, and net interest pressure, and ordinary people are more worried; if the trend of aging of the population in China has not changed, the savings rate is also declining, and fiscal pressure will become more.Come bigger.Therefore, the two sun may seem to be two tigers, and they are very tired. In the end, the two parties are likely to decide that the right side of the mountain is my site, the left side of the mountain is your site, two points in the world.
One of the advantages of China is the centralized coordination of the government.Individuals and companies in the United States may have strong competitiveness, but because there are not much compromise inside, it seems that some people draw this side when the dragon boat is planned, and some people are scattered.Chinese individuals and enterprises are not necessarily top, but everyone is very popular, coupled with the coordination of Chinese leaders ... this may be a competitive advantage.
To sum up, the Sino -US trade war is entering the unstable off -war period. The scientific and technological war is a long -term war. The current state is only two heavyweight boxers to rest after the first round.The second round.
It is too late to prevent China from stopping China.The science and technology development of private enterprises in China, especially Chinese and American science and technology war.In the China -US Dragon Boat competition, China has certain advantages.In the long run, the United States' fiscal pressure and the aging population of China will be the biggest disadvantage in long -term competition. In the end, it may form two world trends of division of solar systems.
This article is a record of Chen Guangyan, a professor of economics at Nanyang University of Science and Technology in Singapore Nanyang University of Science and Technology, at the closed -door meeting of the New Middle School forum jointly organized by the joint morning newspaper and the surging news of China Surging News on November 6. After the editorial department was deleted, the lecturer agreed.
