Dai Qingcheng Hong Kong Report
The district council election held yesterday in Hong Kong generally believes that the opposition will achieve ideal results.However, interviewees analyzed that even if the opposition obtained more than half of the seats, it was difficult to shake the Chinese central government's governance of Hong Kong.
Under the wave of anti -repair examples, the Hong Kong opposition in this year's district council election situation is good, and the establishment of the establishment of the repair has been beaten. It was not until recently that the anti -violent cards turned the tide, and the choice of both sides appeared in a state of stagnation.
Wu Junfei, deputy dean of the Hong Kong Think Tank Tianda Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post yesterday that the voting rate of Hong Kong elections has always been low, but the total number of votes and voting rates in the district selection this year broke the records ever, reflecting that Hong Kong people are notPolitical cold, most Hong Kong people were deeply affected by the anti -repair case incident of more than five months, so they voted enthusiastically.
He said: Due to the high voting rate, this election was actually like lsquo; referendum RSQUO; and was regarded as an assessment of the Hong Kong people on the Lin Zheng government.
Li Pengguang, director of the Public Governance and Research Department of Lingnan University in Hong Kong, also pointed out in an interview with this newspaper that the voting rate of this year's district election has a chance of up to 70 %, setting a new high since the election in Hong Kong, showing that the impact of anti -repair routines on Hong Kong society has a great impact on Hong Kong society.Essence
If the non -construction school has half of the district seats may be left and right, the chief executive election
Li Pengguang said that according to traditional analysis, the higher the voting rate, the more beneficial to the non -construction faction.However, this year's Hong Kong society was severely torn, accounting for about 30 % of the total voters to vote. The voting orientation is difficult to predict. Therefore, it is not possible to explain the high voting rate in the past.
Li Pengguang believes that once the non -systems have obtained more than half of the district council seats, they will further win 117 seats of the next Chief Executive Election Committee, coupled with more than 300 votes held by the democratic tradition, a total of 1200 people can account for 1200 peopleOne -third of the election committee, which is enough to control the overall situation and become the king of the next chief executive election.
In addition, if there are more than half of the non -construction seats in the district, other district councils (first) seats in the Legislative Council's functional world will also become the Xiangzhong of the people.If the Fanmin will be able to get in some functional groups and regional direct election groups, it will win half of the seats in the Legislative Council election next year, making the SAR government's future governance more difficult.
However, Wu Junfei believes that even if the opposition has obtained 117 votes from the next Chief Executive Committee through the selection of the area, Beijing will not worry too much, because these votes account for only about 10 % of the total votes.According to previous experience, the opposition in the Chief Executive Committee is not a iron plate. As long as the SAR Government is governed, some Pan -Civil Election Commission can vote to the crew candidates.
Beijing intends to weaken the chief executive rights and responsibilities
Wu Junfei also interpreted that the influence of the opposition chief executive election has increased. Recently, Beijing has intended to weaken the chief executive's power and responsibility, and has tended to collectively responsible systems.For example, the Basic Law states that the central government appointed the Hong Kong Chief Executive and the main officials; the main officials were nominated by the Chief Executive and reported to the central government. The Chief Executive also suggested that the central government exempts the positions of the above officials.
He said: Although the nomination and dismissal of the main officials are proposed by the Chief Executive, strictly speaking, it is appointed by the central government.Beijing had released the wind earlier, saying that the central government could supervise and evaluate major Hong Kong officials.In other words, for example, in the past five months, the Minister of Education of Hong Kong was inaccurate, and the children of the police were below and bullied, and the central government could directly remove his position.
As for whether Beijing will have a new policy for Hong Kong after being elected in Hong Kong, Wu Junfei believes that Beijing will depend on the results of the district selection and decide what measures to launch.If Pan -people obtained half of the seats, Beijing will tend to be tough, including the National People's Congress Standing Committee may be more frequent.
He revealed: According to some internal polls, the support rate of localist natives that advocate complete autonomy and Hong Kong independence have shown a stable state since June, which is about 10 % to 10 %. This has never appeared before.It shows that local factions have become a powerful force in Hong Kong's politics, and Beijing has to prevent it.
Li Pengguang also agreed that once the non -construction school was selected in the district, it would be a big test for Beijing. Before Beijing, Beijing has always emphasized to stop violence.If it is not for the victory this time, it means that Beijing's strategy is wrong, and it is necessary to adjust.As for harder or softer, it depends on the authorities.
