Author: Chen Guanan
The 2020 presidential election of Taiwan is definitely the most dazzling election after Taiwan's democratization.Earlier this year, when Tsai Ing -wen was weak and South Korean Yu had not yet joined the election, Ke Wenzhe, who had no party membership at that time, took the lead in a number of polls, making the presidential election suddenly become a three -footed pattern in 2000.Under the war situation of blue, green, and white, the National and Civil Party have fallen into the primary disputes. Many competitors have appeared. Only in June and July, who was eligible for the party to compete for the Central Plains.
Due to the impact of the primary elections of the two parties and cross -strait factors, the more eased blue -green opposition last year also intensified.Ke Wenzhe, who was originally unique, was attracted to the enemy and gradually marginalized. In early August, it was announced that the election was abandoned for 2020 and reorganized the Taiwan people's party for layout.
When the outside world thought that he would return to the blue -green duel, Ke Qiang also formed an alliance with Guo Taiming and Wang Jinping, and Guo supported by Ke, at the time of the Apple Daily polls at the time, was even more effective in blue and green candidates.However, this set of magnificent alliances in the field, but due to internal integration and matching problems, in the case of Guo's declaration and Ke Weili, they finally broke.
The disintegration of Guo, Ke, and Wang League means that this election is a blue -green duel?In the abroad, Song Chuyu, the Democratic Party, who had participated in the four presidential elections, was still appearing at the last moment after the absence of this election.As a result, with Song Chuyu's announcement, South Korea ’s Yu and Zhang Shanzheng combined with Zhang Shanzheng, as well as the long -standing hustle and bustle Cai Lai matching, the 2020 president of this peak was finally scheduled to enter the final battle of short soldiers.
According to the latest polls announced by TVBS, Cai Lai has led 37%of the national affairs and 8%Song Yu with 45%.
Compared with the 10 -day investigation of TVBS, the Kuomintang's party voter support rate decreased from 37%to 4 percentage points to 33%, but the DPP also decreased from 25%to 23%, showing that the two parties have indeed received recent list of non -partition lists.The controversy, but overall, the voter election of the Blue Camp party is still optimistic than the green camp.
In part of the small party, the people's party and the Democratic Party have become the biggest beneficiaries. The former increased from 10%to 12%, while the latter improved from 2%to 4%, close to the threshold of the distribution of party seats.On the contrary, the power of the times may be ranked fourthly by Huang Guochang, which is reduced from the original 7%to 6%.
However, in the presidential election part, after the blue -green candidate was matched with the deputy, it did not seem to be affected by the dispute over the sponsorship list, and the support rate was almost unchanged. Both sides gap at about 8 percentage points.It can be seen that whether it is a sponsorship list or the deputy candidate, the key to the election is still the candidate itself.However, it is worth noting that while South Korean Yu's preferences have not changed, Tsai Ing -wen's preferences are still declining, and the degree of unwillingness is also rising.Hate Tsai Ing -wen's mood is quite likely to be a key factor in the later stage of the election, because it will involve the abandonment operation and decide how voting the voting rate.
The election campaign has entered the last 50 days, and the recent policy offensive of South Korean Yu has indeed stopped the decline in the decline in the primaries of the Blue Camp.From the perspective of TVBS surveys, the disputes of not partitions are mainly part of the political party votes, and it has not been burned to the candidate's election.However, while the time is becoming more and more precious, Han, which is currently backward at various polls, must adopt a more bold strategy to let go and strive to reduce the gap between young and middle votes.A few days ago, South Korea's publicly announced that it supports Hong Kong's implementation of dual universal elections, which is a very good beginning.
In addition, South Korea ’s Yu must also show a macro pattern. It must fully explain the reform of how to strengthen the reform of Taiwan’ s governance efficiency, from large to small, so that voters see the hope of reconstruction.This is definitely the weakness of Cai Yingwen. On her campaign website, I saw trivial achievements and did not see politics.As far as polls are concerned, even 70 % of people do not know Cai's specific political opinions.
The presidential election is compared to the pattern and the horizon.
(Author is an assistant researcher at the National Policy Research Foundation)
