Zheng Zhen: China -US negotiation methods tend to ＂de -political＂

Written article: Zheng Zhen

US President Donald Trump said on October 28 that he is expected to sign the first phase of trade agreement with China in advance, but did not make further specific explanations.Trump said that the two countries planned to sign the agreement during the Chilean Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Leadership Summit next month, but at the same time he also mentioned Chile's recent political turmoil.He said: So I would say that we would be a little earlier or earlier than the scheduled plan.

Earlier on October 11, Trump announced that the two countries had reached the first phase of trade agreement, but specific text negotiations still need to be completed in the next few weeks.

China Vice Premier Liu He Liu, October 25 with US trade representatives Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Minister Steven Mnuchin.The official manuscript released by China shows that the two sides agreed to properly resolve their core concerns and confirm that the technical consultation of some texts was basically completed.The leaders of the two sides will talk again in the near future.

It is not surprising that the two parties will lead people again. What is shining is that the technical negotiations between the two parties confirmed that some texts have basically been completed.

For more than a year, Sino -US trade negotiations have not had no consensus between China and the United States. The reason why they can't stop talking about it is that the two parties have differences in consensus.For example, in May 2019, the United States levied tariffs on the grounds that China ’s instead of reversing.EssenceChina believes that since no agreement is reached, everything can be re -talk, and the United States also has a precedent for re -negotiation.

In May 2018, China and the United States issued a joint statement, reaching a consensus between the two sides not to fight the trade war. They agreed to continue to maintain high -level communication and actively seek to solve the economic and trade issues that have concerned.The United States publicly stated that the suspension of tariff plans for China and Canada.But 10 days later, the United States began to impose tariffs.China believes that the United States tears consensus, and the suspension of tax increase plans has not been written in the joint statement of both parties.The United States does not think it is against it.

The negotiation process of over the past year shows that China and the United States have reached consensus such as oral consensus, statements, and memo.But these are not formal trade agreements.Both China and the United States have demands and chips. Once they encounter differences, those who are light to push down and deny the consensus reached with partial differences, and rose to the comprehensive tension of relations between the two countries.Under such a logic of interpretation, the trade war is no longer a simple trade consultation, but has become an economic confrontation that has been abducted by politics and has been kidnapped by great powers.

At present, China and the United States confirmed that the technical consultation of some texts is basically completed, which is a rare consensus for the long time of the trade war.This means that after this part of the protocol is reached, China and the United States cannot easily overthrow and re -talk.

China and the United States are fulfilling the first phase of the agreement. If progress is smooth, China and the United States may promote the second or even third phase of the agreement.Before May of this year, the United States publicly stated that China and the United States had reached 90%of consensus.If China and the United States want to continue to reach an agreement, 90%of the consensus can be divided into several results. If you want to fight 10%of the trade war, any point can cause contradictions.At present, what China and the United States are doing is not to entangle how the differences of 10%become consensus, but to confirm 90%of the consensus that have been reached.

This is a method of de -political negotiation. It is to cut the Sino -US trade war into small contradiction points and gradually resolve it.The Sino -US trade negotiations can unbind, reduce dimensionality, and land on the ground are the beginning of the problem of solving the problem.

How can China and the United States avoid falling into the trap of Xunxione?In fact, simplify complex issues and fix abstract issues.This bureau's Beijing ideas have dominated.Sino -US trade negotiations have never been a simple economic interest calculation of losing and winning. How to find out the cards of each other in the negotiations, how to be responsible for the overall situation of Sino -US relations, and how to be responsible for the general trend of China's rise is the focus.

The first phase of the agreement this time is related to whether China can maintain the reputation of Sino -US relations, and whether the parties to be controlled by the Sino -US relations crisis are expected.At this critical time point before the election next year, China and the United States used the basic completion of the technical consultation of some texts to the first phase of the agreement. It was a big step forward at the right time.

Trump, who requires the results of political performance, did not overthrow the agreement repeatedly during the election.If Trump succeeds in re -election, it seems that the agreement to overthrow himself as a political achievement will not be said.If Trump's re -election fails, if the new president overthrows the formal agreement that China and the United States have reached, the United States will also need to pay the political costs of the United States. At that time, the responsibility of deteriorating Sino -US relations will not be in China at all.