Wangbao Society Review

China's economic growth fell to 6%in the third quarter, lower than the market expectations of 6.1%. It also reached the minimum growth rate since the announcement of the quarterly data in 1992. It was caused by the weak internal investment demand and the impact of the external Sino -US trade war.From the perspective of dismantling expenditure, it can be found that among the three engines that promote economic growth, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth in the third quarter of the third quarter reached 61.2%, which was 5.9%more than 55.3%of the second quarter.The investment contribution rate was 21.5%, which was 4.4%less than 25.9%in the second quarter, and the import and export fell from 18.8%to 17.3%, a decrease of 1.5%.Domestic demand consumption has become the main momentum to support China's economic growth, and investment and net exports have fallen significantly.

From the perspective of the level 3 industry structure, it can also get the same answer.Manufacturing (level 2 industry), which is relatively related to investment and net exports, performed in the third quarter of 2019, which is obviously inferior to the service industry mainly based on domestic demand consumption (level 3 industry).According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the output value of manufacturing in the third quarter increased by 5.2%, which was significantly lower than the cumulative output value of the first three quarters.The performance of the service industry is exactly the opposite. In the third quarter, the output value increased by 7.2%year -on -year, which was 0.2%higher than the cumulative output value in the first three quarters.This clearly revealed that the service industry close to domestic demand consumption has become the mainstay of the Chinese economy.

However, even if the service industry has gradually replaced the role of the manufacturing industry, if the manufacturing industry is more detailed, some of them may be worth paying attention.On the one hand, the strategic emerging industries and high -tech manufacturing industries in the manufacturing industry, the added value (that is, added value) in the first three quarters of the first three quarters increased by 8.4%and 8.7%, respectively, both of which were 5.6%of the annual growth rate of 5.6%of industrial added value above designated size.Come high.On the other hand, the value -added of state -owned holding enterprises only increased by 4.7%, while the annual growth rate of the added value of private enterprises was as high as 8%.One is 0.9%less than the overall average, and the other is 2.4%.This means that China's active efforts to promote economic structure adjustment and industrial upgrading and transformation in recent years have initially achieved results.

In other words, as far as the overall manufacturing production is concerned, the status of private enterprises is more and more important, and the trend of replacing state -owned enterprises is quite obvious.Relatively attach importance to the strategic emerging industries and high -tech manufacturing industries of innovation and technology. In the economic growth rate of year -on -year decline, it has accelerated growth and provoked economic beams.In the process of adjustment of this structure, the significant improvement of economic quality makes people have a lot of imagination space for China's economic prospects, and it should not be too pessimistic.Looking further, this is also inspired by the Beijing authorities.Continuously supports the development of private enterprises, and will not be confused by the retreat of the country and the people, which is essential for the future of China's economic growth momentum.In this process, we must pay more attention to the investment of science and technology and innovation elements, and encourage enterprises to move towards the direction of innovation and transformation and enhance value.Because innovation drivers are not only the mainstream of economic development, but also the only way to pursue technical autonomy and even curve.

Huawei is the best example.Do not discuss the technical level of 5G equipment and patent layout. From the perspective of profitability, you can experience the importance of technology and innovation.According to Huawei's latest financial report data, the total revenue achieved a total of 610.8 billion yuan in the first three seasons, an annual increase of 24.4%, and a net profit margin of 8.7%.Among them, the business from smart phones grew 26%.In an environment where the United States high pressure (in May with national security on the grounds of national security) and extremely unfavorable external environment, Huawei's revenue performance not only did not decline, but also grew backward and completely fell below everyone's glasses.The main reason for the information released by Huawei is that in the face of US sanctions, related technologies independently developed in the past, countries that have obtained non -US siege circles are affirmed, and they are still willing to use Huawei equipment.For example, as far as 5G commercial contracts are concerned, to date, Huawei has signed more than 60 world -leading operators, allowing the overall information technology, optical transmission, and data communication equipment to grow steadily, and even the revenue has also led to revenue performance.

Regarding the bright performance of Huawei's financial report, the market still does not pay for it. It is believed that the US sanctions have not arrived, instead of being as light and light as Huawei.However, it is impossible to deny that Huawei's performance has indeed highlighted the importance of innovation and technology.In other words, even if the output benefits of innovation and technology input cannot be immediately appeared in the short term, and may even damage short -term growth momentum, but based on long -term considerations, if you want to promote economic momentum, you still have to consider how to lure enterprises to speed up investment innovation research and development., And then shape its own unique niche market.If you just make articles on demand, to lift the economy through the government's finance and monetary policy, it may have some stimulating effects in the short term, but in the long run, I am afraid that it will only distort resource allocation and even promote asset bubbles, which will not help economic growth.

Especially for the current situation of China, there is a pressure on the economic decline, threats to US tariffs, and wanting to take care of them. They still have to return to the essence of supply reform and accelerate the upgrading and transformation of economic and industrial structure.The key is the innovative momentum of enterprises and industries.The Beijing authorities must have such cognition.