Social Theory October 11, 2019
Turkish armed forces launched an attack on the regions controlled by Kurdish armed in Northeast Syria on Wednesday (October 9).The Tujun first launched air strikes and shells against the Kurdish armed bases and military arsenal. The ground first troops subsequently entered Syria at the two places across the border.Turkish President Erdogan said that this military operation is to eliminate the military forces of the Kurds in the border area of the Turkish Syrian and the threat of the remaining elements of the Islamic State in order to set up a safe zone so that Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey can return to their hometownEssence
Turkey has long regarded Kurds as terrorists, especially the Kurdish workers and Kurdish forces in Syrian.Syria fell into a civil war in 2011. The Iranian organization and the armed forces of many anti -Assad government rose, and the United States supported Kurdish forces to fight against Iraqi organizations and fight against government forces.Today, the Iranian organization has basically been annihilated, and Syria splits the southern part of the Assad government, the north controlled by the opposition and the Turkish army, and the northeast controlled by Kurdish armed forces.Trump announced the withdrawal from Syria earlier this year and was accused of abandoning ally Kurdish forces.Later, he decided to let the 400 U.S. military stay in the local area and promise to cooperate with Turkey to set up a joint patrol security area in Syria on the border of Turkey.
With a series of incidents that have recently occurred in the Middle East, especially Iran ’s threat to the interests of the United States, and the United States did not make a substantial response, Erdogan realized that Trump’ s Middle East policy had quietly changed and decided to take the initiative.He announced on the 5th of this month that he would send troops to Syria. The White House announced the next day that he would not support and participate in Turkey's military operations, and the U.S. military would withdraw from the relevant areas.This shows that the security of the Middle East is no longer on Trump's political agenda.
Trump's main axis of the Middle East policy followed the former President Obama era, that is, ending the US military interference in the Middle East, but Obama's withdrawal operation was more cautious, and Trump seemed to be in a hurry.Trump is the president of the businessman and focuses on narrow and short -term interests in internal affairs and diplomacy.He is unwilling to do a business without the interests of his eyes. He often emphasizes that the United States only fights for his own interests, and he will not fight without confidence and victory.
In the Middle East, the biggest interest in the United States is energy security and allies Israel, and it is now a net energy net exporter, and Saudi Arabia's security is relatively important for it.In the past, the United States supported Kurdish forces because of the needs of Iran and Russia's influence of Iran and Russia; the strategic value of Kurdish armed forces was not as good as before, and it was naturally abandoned by the United States.Israel's security is mainly Iran's threat. The United States has unilaterally withdrawn from the Iranian nuclear agreement. At the same time, it has strengthened sanctions on Iran.Ship, which shot down the U.S. UAV in July, and shot Saudi oil facilities in September.Facing the US military attack and the Saudi version of the Pearl Harbor incident, Trump only threatened oral threats and the surface posture of gathering warships on the Persian Gulf, confirming that the United States was already a paper tiger in the Middle East.In fact, Trump withdrew the eagle and the national security adviser Bolton, and he wanted to negotiate with Taliban and meet with Iranian leaders earlier.Essence
The weakening of the security commitment to the Middle East must push the Middle East into the historical process of geopolitical shuffling.The traditional regional countries such as Turkey and Iran are bound to find opportunities to expand their influence, trying to retrieve the glory of Ottoman and Persia's former empires. Erdogan's army Syria was the first incident of a large reshuffle.Israel and Saudi Arabia also respond to changes in the region. The deepest crisis in the Middle East is whether Iran and Saudi Arabia will eventually fight, and whether Israel will start an attack on Iran.This chaos in the Middle East will also appear more dangerous because of the nuclear confrontation, because Israel is a nuclear military country, and Iran is also considered to be developing nuclear weapons, and there is Russia's support behind it.
The spillover effect of changes in Trump's foreign policy is great.The United States under Trump is obviously no longer a reliable ally. From the Middle East Saudi Arabia and Israel, the European NATO and the European Union, Japan and South Korea in Northeast Asia, it is obvious that leaders of all countries must rethink and adjust their main dependence on the United States to provide security guarantee.National Security Strategy.In fact, with the rise of China's rise and the overall national strength of the United States, the strength that the United States can project globally is relatively small.Whether it is Trump or Obama, or even in which party will be president in the future, the United States will definitely decrease to external resources, and strategic contraction is the general trend.The world's geopolitical pattern is entering the era of uncertainty and danger.
