Zhang Yugui
According to Reuters on September 26, US Secretary of State Pompeo said on the 25th local time that the United States was imposing new sanctions on some Chinese companies and individuals because the latter deliberately transferred oil from Iran and violated Washington to Iran.Sanctions ban.
Earlier, the US Ministry of Finance announced on its official website the target of the sanctions, including five Chinese citizens and six Chinese entities.Among them, the Chinese entities that were sanctioned were COSCO Shipping (Dalian) Co., Ltd., Dalian Zhongyuan Shipping Oil Shipping Ship Management Co., Ltd., Zhonghe Petroleum Co., Ltd., Kunlun Shipping Co., Ltd., Kunlun Holdings Co., Ltd. and Feima 88 Co., Ltd.
According to disclosure, the sanctions will ban US citizens and companies from dealing with the above -mentioned Chinese companies, which is actually equivalent to excluding them outside the US banking industry at the core of the global financial system.Sanctions will also freeze any property or interests owned by these companies or individuals in the United States and prohibit them from paying or transferring any US assets to them.
Financial sanctions are unique in the United States
According to relevant statistics, the OFFICE of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has released sanctions since 2001. As of June 30, 2019, as many as 152 Chinese individuals and entities (includingEnterprise) has been included in the list of sanctions by OFAC and is one of the countries with the most sanctions list.
These include 68 Chinese, 83 Chinese companies, and a military department, and 150 are included in the list of special designated nationals (SDN).), And there is also a list of sanctions involved in the Iranian sanctions. The US financial sanctions on China are mainly concentrated on individuals and enterprises.
In recent years, OFAC's sanctions on China have been continuously strengthened. Since 2017, 110 Chinese individuals and entities have been sanctioned, accounting for more than 70%.
As the Sino -US trade war shows a certain degree of stalemate, the Trump administration's original estimated speed is increasingly impossible.The possibility of the United States forced China to make major concessions in the core key interests and even fundamental systems through tariff wars.However, the boss's consciousness has long been sexually sexually sexually ordered, which has taken the initiative to provoke the Sino -US trade war and upgrade the confrontation intensity from time to time. The goal achievement so far is far from the original expectations.Taking the will of China as a transfer of change.
Trump has just used very little tools to deal with China so far. This sentence is not a drama.It is completely possible to adopt a series of extreme measures including financial sanctions such as larger levels of financial sanctions without warning.The strategic and economic dialogue mechanism constructed by China and the United States may become historical memory.
On August 6 this year, the US Treasury listed China as a exchange rate manipulator.At this time, the United States chose to make trouble for the renminbi at this time, not for a moment, but a strategic choice for extreme eagle -like people represented by US trade representative Leitzizer and White House trading consultant Navarro.Because China responded properly, and the main allies and international currency funds in the United States did not follow the trend, the United States failed to receive the expected results, symbolizing significance than practical significance.
But the United States did not stop.The Trump administration believes that although its advantages in the real economy and high -tech fields are gradually eaten by China, finance is still where China is short.Financial sanctions may receive unexpected results.
In fact, the United States' implementation of financial sanctions on China has become sharp: As early as 2012, the United States sanctioned China Kunlun Bank on the grounds of Iranian business, threatening the connection between Kunlun Bank and the US financial system, which led to Kunlun BankIt was forced to adhere to the US sanctions regulations; similar situations still occurred in the Bank of Dandong. In 2017, the United States accused Bank of Dandong accusing Dandong with channels for the so -called illegal financial activities of North Korea and cut off the connection between Bank of Dandong and the US financial system.
In March of this year, in the investigation of North Korea's violations of sanctions, a US judge accused China Communications, China Merchants Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, which had unsatisfactory behaviors, and once reported that the three banks were cut off the connection between the three banks and the US financial system.However, because there was no direct evidence, the three banks were investigated by the US judicial department for suspected violation of any sanctions law.In July this year, Pompeo revealed in a speech that Zhuhai Zhenrong, a state -owned energy company in China, was sanctioned by the United States.
At present, the United States excuses Iran's attack on Saudi Oilfield, increasing financial sanctions on Iran, cutting off most of Iran's sources of funds, and led to almost isolation in Iranian banks and the international financial community.Only banks in Russia and other very few countries have maintained contact with Iranian banks.
The financial sanctions adopted by the United States on Iran are extreme measures except for war means by the United States to hostile countries.Because the Iranian economy rely on oil exports, the economic structure is relatively single, and the external environment has always been worse, which has greatly affected the country's economy by US financial sanctions.
In contrast, due to the huge economy of China, the GDP (GDP) is equivalent to two -thirds of the United States. It is the world's largest trading country. The financial market has a huge volume and participates in the global financial market in depth.High, the number of global importance banks is second only to the United States; and between China and the United States have already formed extremely close economic and trade and financial connections.It makes the United States impose financial sanctions on hierarchy like Iran and Russia, not only technically difficult to operate, but also the harm to the United States itself will far exceed the impact on Iran and Russia's financial sanctions.
However, according to the analysis of the suppression of major competitors since the United States since the United States, the United States is completely likely that in the strategic game of China -US multi -round strategic game, the use of national security has been threatened as an excuse to use the International Emergency Economic Power Law National Emergency Status Law.The National Defense Authorization Law and the issuance of the presidential administrative order, and conduct sanctions at low -level sanctions on some companies or specific individuals in China, including fines, frozen assets, and transactions with US financial systems.Try to achieve higher value strategic goals with lower costs.
The reason why the United States can impose financial sanctions worldwide is nothing more than a strong mechanism -based financial hegemony and supporting law and implementation system that the United States has built since World War II.To a certain extent, it is also a curb that it has a certain challenge or asymmetrical threat to the status of the global economy and security guarantor they play.
As the United States controls the global currency settlement network and the most important payment currency system, that is, the US dollar -centered valuation and settlement system, the United States has become the only hegemonic country that can launch a true financial sanctions on other countries today; and the United StatesThe status of the superpowers allows it to survive international law and bypass the major international organizations to directly unilaterally mobilize financial sanctions.The sanctioned country or the object of sanctions has few complaints and international legal relief channels and mechanisms, and the complaint has no door.
On the other hand, there is no payment liquidation system in today's world that can replace the New York Clearance Institute Bank Interbank Payment System (Chips) and the United States.The world's major US dollar cross -border payment liquidation must be carried out through Chips, and SWIFT belongs to the newspaper system, which is responsible for conveying transaction information between major global banks and financial institutions.The two undertake more than 95%of the bank's interbank US dollar payment liquidation and more than 90%of foreign exchange transaction liquidation.And if the subject is removed from the SWIFT system, all its foreign exchange trading business will be interrupted.
At present, although China has established a RMB cross -border payment system, countries, including China, almost rely on SWIFT to conduct message transmission services for cross -border payment.existThe US dollar is still the most important reserve currency, valuation currency and investment currency, and the final liquidation link is still in the United States whether it is trade or investment.And the United States can monitor other global trading information systems.
Once the United States starts financial sanctions and moves an economic subject (market entity) out of the CHIPS system, the economic subject (market entity) will not be able to conduct cross -border US dollar transactions; once the United States cuts off the contact between a financial institution and SWIFT system, it should beThe cost of cross -border business packets of institutions will rise sharply and even difficulty.
In addition, through the tangible and intangible control of the global financial system in recent years, the United States has created a financial intimidation system based on financial hegemony and long -arm jurisdiction in the world: that is, under the pressure of financial sanctions in the United States, otherThe state's financial institutions, because they are worried that they will be included in the sanctions list, and they dare not have a substantial connection with the US sanctions objects, resulting in a financial islands and cold cicadas.
After testing finance, China responds to China
The United States' financial sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals are one of the means of sacrifice for their purpose in the Sino -US trade war to achieve their purpose in the Sino -US trade war.A actual combat test of defense and international mobilization capabilities.In other words, the United States wants to see how much China can compete with it, or whether it can operate and develop independently after leaving the financial system led by the United States.
In essence, financial sanctions serve the strategic choice of the United States for the long -term strategic goals of China.The medium and long -term strategic goal of the United States is to lock China's absolute strength and right to speak within its controlled hegemony system.China does not allow China to have the ability to drive along with it in terms of economy, technology, trade, finance, and global public product supply.
The United States believes that if China ’s strength leverage in the financial field is still cultivating and growing, and the wings are not abundant, it will make a tactical blow to China to harvest real gold and silver.The economic and financial connection of trading partners has delayed the process of upgrading China's upgrade from manufacturing and trading powers from manufacturing and trading to a certain extent.
The United States is unwilling to see China transforming huge financial assets and financial markets into financial pricing and settlement capabilities.In particular, the gradual replacement of assets for RMB for US dollar will shake the foundation of the US dollar.For the United States, which looks at the changes very much, it is necessary to try to interrupt this development trend.Financial sanctions can be assisted.
As of the end of March this year, China's foreign financial assets have exceeded US $ 738.17 trillion, of which foreign liabilities are US $ 543.3 million, and foreign net assets are US $ 195.1 billion.At the end of August this year, China's reserve assets were US $ 307.2 billion, accounting for more than 42%of foreign financial assets.Among them, the proportion of US dollar assets in reserve assets is about 51%, and US debt accounts for about 38%.The US dollar assets held by China are about $ 1.8 trillion.
As far as banks' foreign financial assets are concerned, as of the end of March this year, the foreign financial assets of the banking industry were US $ 1165.4 billion.Among them, RMB $ 119 billion, USD $ 807 billion, and other currency assets of 239.4 billion US dollars.US dollar assets account for 69%.It can be seen that the US dollar is dominant in China's foreign financial assets.This has also formed a high dependence on US dollar assets, and risk exposure is large.
Once the United States imparting financial sanctions on China, under extreme circumstances, some Chinese banks are removed from the Chips system and cutting off its connection with the SWIFT system, the US dollar assets held by the Chinese banking industry will become a currency value in a certain sense and cannot be carried out.Settlement and cross -border US dollar transactions.At that time, the United States may use this as a tool to bargain with China, causing China to passively cope with it.
Chinese sanctions companies may become islands
The US financial sanctions on relevant Chinese banks will not only significantly affect the international business of relevant Chinese agencies, but also make the international image of the relevant institutions of China through the manufacturing island effect.The relevant Chinese listed enterprises that have been sanction may have a panic decline in their stock prices, which will affect the stability of the stock market and the foreign exchange market.
On the other hand, due to the huge assets of China in the United States, and China and the United States hold each other's assets of each other, the size of the other party's assets is far greater than the size of the US assets holding the Chinese assets, which leads to China in US financial in the United States.Assets are easily abducted.
Once the United States believes that the operating behavior of Chinese financial institutions threatens the national security of the United States, it may fall into the sanctioned circle designed by the United States.According to the US long -arm jurisdiction, any foreign banks that have branches and business in the United States can exercise jurisdiction.Even according to the principle of minimum connection, even if the Chinese banks have nothing to do with the dispute between the plaintiff's defendant, as long as the defendant opens an account in a Chinese bank, as a third party to assist the execution, the Chinese bank will be involved in the lawsuit, so it must cooperate to cooperate withAnd even punished.
In recent years, according to the revised laws, the United States stipulates that any foreign company, as long as it uses US dollars to sign a contract, or only through the server (such as Google email or Microsoft mailbox) in the United States, and mailing (even only transit) emails.Both enter the jurisdiction of the United States.This is something that Bank of China and related companies have to guard against.
Although there is a certain financial nuclear terrorist balance between China and the United States, systemic financial confrontation between the two countries will seriously harm their economic systems and will have a negative impact on the global financial ecology.
However, for the Trump administration that does not cover up and has no bottom line, if conventional extreme compression methods such as tariffs are imposed, the phased goals cannot be achieved quickly, then financial sanctions and long -armed jurisdictions will be carried out as low costs in the United States at low costs.The power tool for strategic blackmail is completely likely to be an important means of bargaining with China.In this regard, China must maintain a high degree of alertness and take out a practical countermeasure.
The author is the dean of the School of International Finance and Trade, Shanghai University of Foreign Languages
Trump has just used very little tools to deal with China so far. This sentence is not a drama.It is completely possible to adopt a series of extreme measures including financial sanctions such as larger levels of financial sanctions without warning.The strategic and economic dialogue mechanism constructed by China and the United States may become historical memory.
