Author: Lin Jianfu
The 13th round of negotiations in the 13th round of the US -China Trade appeared today (10). As the United States expands sanctions on mainland China, and the general manager of Houston Rockets, Mo Lei published the slogan to support Hong Kong demonstrators in TwitterThe NBA disputes are getting worse, and the outside world believes that a new round of negotiations may have high hopes.
However, the fundamental reason for the difficulty of negotiations in the United States and China is that the United States tries to achieve unreasonable interests through extreme pressure.The requirements of the United States to China include: reducing the trade surplus of US $ 10 billion in one year, and a decrease of $ 10 billion in the next year; stopping subsidies for advanced manufacturing in Made in China 2025;Potential import restrictions; implement direct, verified measures to prevent cyber spy from invading the US business network; strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights; reduce the current average tariffs of 10%to 3.5%.In addition, the United States also requires that the two countries must review the progress of each quarter.
The purpose of the traditional trade agreement is to reduce the trade barriers between the signed countries. The agreement is based on the idea of compliance with the terms of the agreement.However, the United States is forcing China to change its behavior in intellectual property rights and subsidies. The logic of the above agreement is different from the past, and it is more similar to the financial sanctions implemented by the United States on foreign entities. Only when other countries make changes that the United States wants, this kind of sanctionsOnly then will be lifted.
In contrast, the Chinese government also has three main bottom lines. First of all, do you want to cancel tariffs?China believes that tariffs are the starting point of the trade dispute between the two parties. If an agreement is reached, the tariff must be canceled.This is not just economic issues, but also involves more problems.Regarding procurement issues, Trump, ... at the G20 summit in Argentina, to form a consensus. At that time, only a preliminary identity of numbers was formed. So what is the number?Now the two sides have different views. China believes that this is a very serious thing and cannot be easily compromised.The third is the balance of the text. Any country has its own dignity, so the text must be balanced. In this issue, Mainland China is very insisting.These are the bottom line that cannot be concession.
At present, the mainland is increasing its efforts to brew a series of long -term strategies, which is not only the response to tariff upgrades, but also the long -term layout of the future long -term US -China trade relations.
These long -term response plans will cover monetary policy, industrial division of labor, and industry layout. It is not only its own internal development needs, but also a strategy to deal with external uncertain factors.
It is really difficult for us to change from the confusing attitude of both sides and judge the possible results of the US -China negotiations in the future. However, in the process, the two sides seemed to have tacitly tacitly talked and talked, and unattended.
U.S. President Trump hopes to reach more interests, attempt to transfer the focus of impeachment, and raise polls to fight for re -election next year.confidence.In this regard, we do not rule out the possibility of a new round of negotiations between the two parties to reach part of the agreement.
However, since September, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly announced the comprehensive and targeted reduction, relaxation of QFII and RQFII quota restrictions, etc., which also shows that when China releases goodwill, it has also proactively introduced policies to prevent the risks brought about by the reefs brought by the reefs again in the U.S. -China negotiations.EssenceTherefore, in an environment where height uncertainty and non -economic interference are increasing, the market shock is inevitable.
In short, although the US -China negotiations are the main struggle between trade issues, this involves the overall national interests, and even the world's hegemonic battle.Historically summarized the trap of Xiu Xidid, referring to a newly rising country, it is necessary to challenge the existing great power, and the existing country will inevitably respond to this threat.Extend to various fields: trade, economy, military, science and technology, international relations, etc.As a result of this uncertain age, the only certainty is uncertainty.
(The author is a senior consultant of the National Policy Research Foundation and a professor of the Department of Economics of the National Taiwan University) Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
