Liu Xingzhi
In the new round of tariff upgrades in China and the United States, Trump showed the power of pressure on the limit, and China also returned strongly with measures such as tariff countermeasures and interest rates.But in the end, the Chinese side did not continue to follow the card, but blinked first.When the United States saw the steps, it immediately made a good response.
On September 1, the two parties levied a part of the new tariffs on each other, but they were finalized immediately to conduct the 13th round of trade consultations in October.Chinese sources, such as Hu Xijin, editor -in -chief of Global Times, also released, saying that the consultation may have a breakthrough and it is worth looking forward to.
This made Chinese hawks a little dissatisfaction, and was a little puzzled: at that time, the US stocks were affected by factors such as tight trade, inverted interest rates, and non -positive interest rate cuts of the Fed, which fell sharply.In comparison, the Chinese stock market is calm, and the exchange rate is also controllable.If it is tough, it will inevitably exacerbate US stocks and put pressure on Trump. Why is it soft and not chasing U.S. stocks?Even if you do n’t pursue, why do you hurry to agree to the consultation as soon as the tariff is on the ground?It's okay to drag Trump.Even if the consultation is approved, why is there any breakthroughs in frequent hints? Is the senior management decided to make a major concession. Do you want to blow the society through sources?In short, I have a lot of doubts and puzzles.
In fact, the Chinese economy is far from being unable to survive, and it is fully capable of continuing to continue.The U.S. economy is also not glorious. Recently, it is overcast: long -term and short -term national bond interest rates inverted. The manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) has fallen below the Glory Line for the first time in three years. In August, non -agricultural employment was inferior to expected.Why did China blink at this moment?I am afraid not only for economic pressure, but more for other considerations.
A few days ago, there are two reports of US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC).One is that tariffs are no longer the biggest problem in China, and decoupling is.The second is that the Sino -US trade war has entered an early stage of the New Cold War, not just trade issues.Trump has been trapped in a position that cannot reverse the trend of the trade war. Even if he reached a trade agreement, it would not help, although he hoped to reach an agreement to facilitate the re -election.
It is likely that the most worried at this stage in China is exactly that the trade war is out of control caused the sharp deterioration of Sino -US relations and becomes out of control.China does not hesitate to lower its posture, intending to control differences and avoid rolling stones to go down the mountain.
It is reported that Trump was furiously aimed at the tariff revenge on China on August 23 and seemed to lose his mind.The Ministry of Commerce of China subsequently stated that it was willing to solve the problem through consultation and cooperation with a calm attitude.Those who are familiar with Chinese characters considering the style will realize that the word calm is the new word in the trade war, which is pointed out.China has always insisted on fighting against the United States. Once the risk of breaking the situation has soared, naturally tend to ease the rhythm of the struggle first.
Is China bluffed by Trump's anger and dementia that is difficult to distinguish between true and false?I am afraid that it is not true, there are more realistic stress MDASH; mdash; the trade war is overflowing towards the geopolitical field, which objectively causes a compassionate situation.For example, Hong Kong issues that have headaches for the central government.At the same time, it also allows neighboring countries to use organic and frequent movements, which may substantially damage China's long -term interests.When the trade war was hot, the Chinese government had no time to take care of him.In addition, because of the 70th anniversary of the National Day, the Chinese loved the peace and peaceful atmosphere, and the American sword was not close.
Compared with the economic factors, the above factors may be more important reasons for the Chinese side to ease the attitude.But the differences in control do not mean to make major concessions.After all, the risk of economic recession in the United States is increasingly accumulated, and the Trump administration's campaign pressure is not small.Continue to fight against China, it may not be cost -effective politically and economically. Therefore, the Trump administration also has a desire to ease.It is acceptable to cool down the trade war, and there is no need to keep the swordsmanship, which is acceptable to both parties.
China is not rushing to reach an agreement, but is anxious to control differences.But this blink of an eye will make Trump firmly believe that China is unable to resist, and it is becoming more stubborn and difficult to entangle?Probably.The room of China can make a small room. It is not easy to keep the bottom line and fight without breaking.What to soothe the aggressive Trump?Let's take a look.
The author is a legal adviser to China Jilin Provincial Cultural Communication Company
