The continued development of the Sino -US trade war has led to more and more people's concerns about the comprehensive conflict between China and the United States and even war (whether it is a fire or a Cold War).Over the years, the proposition of the Xiu Xiddide trap, which will occur between China and the United States, has become popular in the international community.Obviously, this kind of concern is by no means worrying, but a realistic basis.
People can question whether the so -called Xushiddd trap can be used in Sino -US relations, but people must explain the war in history again and again.The war is of course cruel, so people curse the war.But in any case, war often happens.Therefore, people must discuss and study the objective laws that occur in war.
Why do humans fight?From the perspective of experience, there are so many wars in history, but no two wars have the same root, and each war has its specific root cause.From this perspective, there seems to be no objective laws that war.At the same time, war showed high universality.This makes it possible to discuss the roots of war from the level of philosophy.In summary, the war has three roots, namely value, interests and desires.
First, people fight for value.Each person, every organization, every country, and each civilization have their own values system. It is this value system that distinguishes themselves from others.Whether domestic or international, value is the most important source of people.Furthermore, people always think that they are right and their behavior has moral meaning.
The most typical is religious war.God is the incarnation of value, and different Gods show different values.Historically full of religious wars, no signs of stopping today.Although large -scale religious wars are no longer, conflicts caused by various religious extremism have occurred frequently.After modern times, developed western countries have developed the value of other religions, such as democracy, freedom, human rights, and so on.Just as Western missionaries, Western countries, which are regarded as the secular regime, also promoted Western values to other countries as their religious mission.To this end, many western literatures praise and praise the war because war is also an effective means to fulfill the mission.Theoretically, Western scholars are divided into the war of justice and non -righteousness, and the war of justice is a war that conforms to Western values.
Of course, this phenomenon is not just the phenomenon of the West, as is it in all other countries.Although the existence of value is objective, if the value is highly moralized, the conflict between different value systems becomes inevitable.
Second, fight for interests.It is not difficult to understand for benefits.From an economic perspective, the resources of this world are limited. In order to survive, people have to seize limited resources through various means. War is one of the effective means.To obtain resources through violence, it started in the era of primitive tribes.In order to survive and develop, the war between different tribes continues.
From a historical perspective, war between tribes has created a larger organization until the state of the country.The state of the country originated from the theory of war is an explanation of this process.In the era of the empire, most of the war between the empires was to snatch resources, mainly land and population.Modern sovereign states are also established through war; after the emergence of modern countries, many wars are plundered around industrialization, and imperialism and colonial warfare are typical.In contemporary times, the conflict between the country has developed into the field of finance and the Internet space.All countries are seizing resources in various forms, but the form of conflicts between countries has changed. Some countries are civilized and other countries are rude.
Again, fight for desire.Value and interests themselves can cause sufficient desires and cause conflicts.What here refers to animal desires, that is, instinct.In terms of exploring the root cause of the war, some scholars point directly to the role of people's desires.The simplest observation is that the animal world also has a conflict in the leadership status.As a result, some scholars have concluded that war is the conclusion of human nature.In philosophy, sexual evils are indeed evidence of empirical evidence.From the horns of ancient Rome to the corner fighting between modern nobles, and then to various bloody sports competitions, all are full of human wildness and instincts.
Economist Joseph Alois Schumpeter starts from economic rationality. It once believed that nationalism was just a relic of human ancient genes. This gene will eventually subscribe, so world peace is hopeful.But this is not the case, even the opposite.Since modern times, although people can indeed obtain what they need through non -war means, the war has continued and has been deteriorating.It can be said that sexual evil is not only common, but also permanent.Reflected on the decision makers, desire can affect the decisions of politicians.Desire factors are often above interests and values, and even the most important decision factors.Driven by desire, the winning or losing of the war is not important.This is the so -called irrational decision.
Value, interests, and desires are enough to lead to the occurrence of war, but Sino -US relations are likely to be overlapped, which is enough to show the severe nature of the situation and to what extent it will be.
Two -point drum noise noise civilization conflict theory
Different values.Both China and the United States are civilized countries, the United States represents Western civilization, and China is Eastern civilization.Judging from experience, these two civilizations are not only repulsive, but also mutually interactive.Historically, Chinese civilization has had a great impact on Western civilization; in modern times, Western civilization has also had a great impact on China's development.Of course, no matter how it affects each other and integrates each other, Chinese civilization is still Chinese civilization, and Western civilization is still Western civilization.The mutual learning of civilization is the beauty of the world, but when it is politicians, the two are conflict and the momentum is not the same.
Furthermore, the simple two -point thinking of the West has contributed to the confrontation between the so -called civilization.Academically, the United States (West) always puts itself on the end of free democracy and human rights, and places China on a completely opposed side.Thousands of years from ancient Greece to today, Westerners have understood that there is only one paradigm in China, namely Eastern authoritarianism.
This simple two -point method is also reflected in international politics.US President Trump often calls other enemies or friends, good people or bad guys on Twitter.Although this method has Trump special signs, this is definitely the view of the Western civilization's foreign world, and has a deep cultural and philosophical foundation.This is not difficult to understand. In the West, no matter in the academic or politics, people who have never lacked the theory of civilized conflict.Recently, the United States has applied civilized conflict theory to Sino -US relations.
From the value logic of the West, this is not difficult to understand.Changing China has always been the religious mission of the United States in modern times.In the early days of China's reform and opening up, Americans believed that China would change with reform and opening up, and eventually evolved into a country like the United States.Therefore, when Americans think that China is developing in the direction of the United States, it is ecstatic; but when Americans think that China's development direction is not what the United States expects, it becomes extremely disappointed.
Today, China's reform and opening up has contributed to the rise of China, and when China became more China, the disappointment of Americans reached the highest point.Especially when Americans think that China's development and institutional model challenges the United States, they do not hesitate to place China on the opposite side, that is, the enemy's position.
Second, different interests.Different interests lead to conflict of interest, and the conflict of interest is manifested in Fang FangNoodles, including economy, security, politics, etc.Some conflicts of interest are more specific, such as economic interests, and other conflicts of interest are often manifested in cognitive or psychologically, such as the security field.
In terms of economic interests, after decades of exchanges and integration, the economy of China and the United States has actually rely on each other.Although economic benefits are a concept of relative benefits, not the concept of absolute income, that is, it is impossible for both parties to make exactly the same money, but the United States often views economic exchanges with China from the concept of absolute returns.The Trump administration launched a trade war on China from the trade deficit this time, which is the performance of absolute income concept.
Although China has a big surplus from the perspective of trade data, it does not include the huge price paid by China here, including environmental and human capital.In the past few decades of exchanges, the United States has also obtained huge benefits from China, and the problem of the United States is mainly caused by internal unbroken internal distribution. However, the United States has externalized internal problems and has become a trade conflict between China and the United States.
Different political and security interests are more obvious.China and the United States have different political systems and ideology because they reflect two different civilizations.However, different conflicts may not occur. Only when one party wants to change the system and ideology of the other party, the conflict will occur.The same is true of safety.Both countries have the need for national defense, and national defense may not necessarily have conflicts. Only when one party wants to conquer the other party, the conflict will occur.
The dispute between the desire of China and the United States
Economic and trade relations are often regarded as the cockpit stones of Sino -US relations. Tight and stable economic and trade relations can reduce political and security concerns.But now, when this cockpit stone becomes lighter or even faces disappearance, political and security concerns float on the table.This is the reason why the Sino -U.S. Trade War began, the United States' sound to China, the sound of anti -China (especially the security and military system) became louder and louder.This situation makes many people worry that the conflict between China and the United States will soon surpass economic and trade and extend to the political and security fields.
Desire for desire.In fact, China and the United States are actually two pillars of contemporary international relations (or international order). There is no indispensable. Which pillar falls, there will be problems with international order.This is that people often say that China and the United States and the United States often hurt.The problem is that the United States is the only overlord in the world today. To maintain the domineering status, we must have strong desire to support it.Once the United States feels the challenge of the hegemon, or when it feels that it will be replaced by China, its fear is self -evident.In control, the United States will do everything possible to prevent the challenges of China that can prevent China, let alone be replaced by China.
On the other hand, China's rapid rise has forced China to change some of its international behaviors, that is, from the earliest tight light to today's actions.Earlier in China, China was behind, and the economic volume was small, which would be difficult to affect the outside world. At that time, even if I wanted to be high -profile, it could not be high -profile.It is impossible to keep the light.
More importantly, a rising China, the international community (including the United States itself) also requires China to bear more international responsibilities and provide international public products.This will inevitably contribute to China.However, these actions in China have been interpreted as challenging the United States and the United States.Furthermore, once the United States tries to block and curb China, China will inevitably feel fear, and it will also have its own desire to counter the behavior of the United States.
Value can be fused, and interests can be compromised, but desires are likely to become unsatisfactory.As mentioned above, China is a secular culture, and many values in the West are not necessarily conflicting with China's values.However, the integration of value does take a long time.The interests between China and the United States have become inseparable.It is not difficult to understand that since the trade war, people have seen a thousand wounded in the United States and damaging 800.
In other words, the conflict between China and the United States is not inevitable whether at the level of value or interest, but to avoid it.The problem is that if desire occupies a dominant position, it is the beginning of unreasonable.To a large extent, many people do not understand why the United States fights?Do you want to block China?Want to conquer China?U.S. decision makers may never think about these issues seriously.Today, the US behavior of China is more emotional and irrational.
This is the current trend of China and the United States, a general trend that no one wants to see.If you cannot correct this trend, it may eventually be a great tragedy that is difficult for no one.For China, the contest with the United States is not only a contest of willpower, but also a rational contest.If China itself is rational enough, it is possible to drag the United States out of the quagmire of desire to return to rationality.This is not only in line with the interests of China and the United States, but also the interests of the entire international community.
(The author is a professor at the National University of Singapore and the East Asia Research Institute) The article only represents personal opinions
