China -Hong Kong Economic Forum
Ye Xiuliang
On June 14's Lianhe Morning Post Speech Edition, the author once pointed out that what China faces during the trade war will be mainly macroate demand shock, that is, from exports, consumption, domestic investment and foreign direct investmentAlthough the macro demand has declined, although the impact is greater than the United States, it is not as difficult to deal with (Aggregate Supply Shock) that the nature of the United States is mainly faced by the United States (it will cause stagnation rather than the economic recession that China may face))EssenceAs long as China can launch sufficient stimulus demand measures, it can completely offset future impact.
The article also pointed out that China still has the risk of underestimated impact. The reason why this warning was to be aware of the main negative demand impact faced by China in the early days of the trade war.; Due to the adjustment of the stock market and economic uncertainty brought about by the trade war, even the Chinese national and enterprises dare not consume and invest, and the expected tariffs have also caused many foreign direct investors and domestic enterprises to put on hold in China.It even moved the department's production line out of China instead of atrophy in the exit.
Considering that these consumption and investment declines will cause greater demand to decline through the multiplication effects, and many economists and officials only focus on the impact on exports.EssenceUnfortunately, the follow -up development of the Chinese economy is as expected.
Of course, the author only recommends strong measures until now. In addition to discussing the political chaos of Hong Kong and making suggestions, it is also due to the in case China and the United States reach a local trade agreement, the Chinese stock market and the RMB will rebound rapidly, and then bubbles will appear in bubbles.The bubble explosion after a few years.From the recent deputy ministerial negotiation representatives of China, it is time to propose more stimulating measures to make strong stimulus measures.
As one of the main causes of Hong Kong's current political chaos is that Hong Kong's high housing prices and serious insufficient public houses, Chinese leadership has decided not to stimulate the Chinese economy by relaxing the housing market measures.The author believes that this is a pretty wise decision, otherwise house prices will rise immediately, which will cause more dangerous and more difficult housing foam.
Long -term solving high housing prices allows nationals to share development results
However, the above -mentioned talked about the private housing market. The author wants to emphasize that because Chinese citizens have a great demand for public housing with reasonable prices, if the authorities are willing to provide a large number of these public houses, it is not difficult to keep 6%economic growth.It is reasonable to bring back 8%of China's economic growth back to 8%.It is also important that this measure will not only cause the property market bubble, but even play a role in stabilizing property prices like Singapore.
In addition to existing low -rent housing, affordable housing, two -limited houses (limited house prices, limited -type ordinary commercial housing) and talent housing, the authorities can provide a large number of sandwiches that are far lower than private house prices but have considerable profits.Subscribe for qualified nationals.Because it is quite profitable, it will not cause fiscal pressure, and the local government can also be actively promoted due to profit division. In the past, the unsuccessful pushing for a house was ignored this enthusiasm.Because it can be far below the dream of private house prices, when Chinese citizens can also share the results of China's economic development when they resist the torment of the Sino -US trade war, and they really feel the kindness and care of the Chinese central government.It will resolutely fight this long -lasting trade war with the central government.
In order to accelerate the progress until it can stimulate the economy in a timely manner and avoid the government's need to invest a large amount of funds, the authorities should consider the pre -sale of pre -sale of pre -sale of landlords from overseas developers.After the bank applies for 20 and 30 % of the payment to complete the second phase of the project, then the bank requests the bank to issue the next batch of money until the real estate is completed and collected.
Due to the great demand for a reasonable price of Chinese citizens, this measure can not only help China avoid recession, return to the era of 8%of economic growth and win the trade war, but also solve the problem of high housing prices in the long run and allow Chinese nationals to share economic development results.Make the people's hearts attached, and set their achievements for leaders in Chinese history, and can also enable China to enter the era of long -term security.
