Society: Diplomatic smoke on both sides of the mainland Taiwan

Society

Mainland China has taken the two diplomatic relations in Taiwan in five days.At this point, there are only 15 diplomatic countries in Taiwan.On the one hand, Beijing's diplomatic offensive reflects the reality of the imbalance between the two sides of the strait, and on the other hand, it shows that the mainland has become increasingly impatient for Taiwan's resolutely resisting peaceful unity plan for one country and two systems.The Sino -US trade war prompted Washington to try to use Taiwan to pressure the mainland to concessions. The Hong Kong turmoil weakened the effectiveness of one country, two systems, and determining that Taiwan was behind the scenes to support the turmoil of Hong Kong.

Most of the foreign countries maintained by the country maintained by the Republic of China are poor and weak countries, and they are mainly concentrated in Central South America, Africa and Pacific Islands.Since Beijing replaced Taipei in China in 1971, Taiwan has shrunk sharply.In the early days of reform and opening up in mainland China, due to economic backwardness, Taiwan could still maintain a certain number of diplomatic relations by relying on US moral support and its own economic strength.However, as mainland China has become the world's second largest economy, as the international influence is getting bigger and bigger, Taiwan's money diplomacy has quickly failed.

After the DPP, which opposed the re -governance of the Democratic Progressive Party in 2016, cross -strait relations have fallen into a deadlock. The civil exchanges and economic and trade relations between the two sides have been cooled one after another, and political and military confrontation has continued to heat up.

Originally, after the Local Election of the DPP government in 2018, the Kuomintang, which advocates cross -strait integration, is expected to win the throne of the president in 2020.The plan for the peaceful unity of one country, two systems in Beijing has been questioned, and it has impacted the opportunity of the Kuomintang's victory next year.

The prospect of the DPP's four -year governance may be one of the motivations for Beijing to restart the cross -strait diplomacy.Another factor that could not be ignored was the trade war launched by President Trump last year.In the past year, China and the United States have talked about fighting, but the trade war has expanded into a scientific and technological war, financial warfare, and may even become a new cold war for a comprehensive game.

As the role of chess pieces that contain the strategic interests of the mainland, Taiwan has attached importance and utilization again.This time in Beijing, there is no intention to counter Trump's strategy.

Under the current and foreseeable cross -strait and international situation, the current diplomatic trend of cross -strait offensive and defensive will probably be the norm.The number of Taiwan diplomatic relations is further reduced.Except for the European Vatican Holy See, because of ideological problems, and did not establish diplomatic relations with Beijing, the remaining 14 diplomatic relations between Taiwan were about Beijing's strength diplomacy.Among these diplomatic countries, nine are located in the Central South America and the Caribbean region, one in Africa, and four is the Pacific Island.

The Taiwan -South America and Taiwan diplomatic relations that belong to the backyard of the United States may be relatively safe for the time being; however, the Island country of the Caribbean is the same as the Pacific island country.Defense engineering is greatly attractive to them.And Australia's political influence on the Pacific island nation is far less profound than the United States for Central South America, so the mainland must have done their homework and only to act proper diplomatic timing.

Russia broke international taboos in 2014. It has both soft and hard and swallowed the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine. After the international community has no choice but to unify Taiwan with non -peaceful means, there is an international precedent.Of course, Beijing still emphasizes peace and reunification. In addition to the international perception, it is also related to insufficient other comprehensive strengths such as its own military.After all, how to deal with subsequent governance issues if you adopt force?It is impossible for Beijing to not consider it.However, once the mainland has enough confidence in its own strength and accurately judge the political willingness and strength of the United States to interfere with intervention, the status quo of the Taiwan Strait will inevitably change.

Prior to this, the current situation of cross -strait division of governance is still the reality that all parties of the game must accept.However, it is believed that Beijing's diplomatic offensive will also have something.After all, compared with the Republic of Taiwan, the Republic of China still acknowledges a China in jurisdiction.If most of Beijing cuts off most of the Republic of China and hurts the legitimacy of the Republic of China in the minds of the people of Taiwan, it will inevitably create greater legal and political space for Taiwan's independence forces.At that time, Beijing may lose the initiative, no matter whether it is ready or not, there are no choices other than military plans.This is probably the situation that Beijing decision makers should avoid.