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A series of economic data recently released in China shows that the growth rate of this world's second largest economy is slowing.Earlier, China officially predicts that the annual economic growth will be in the range of 6%to 6.5%.But recent economic data reflects that growth is likely to be at the lower end of this range.If the trade war continues and has insufficient economic stimulus supporting, China's economic growth will increase by 6%.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the industrial added value in August increased by 4.4%year -on -year last year, a record of the 17 years.During the same period, the growth of retail and investment fell.The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.5%year -on -year, and the growth rate fell 0.1 percentage points from July.In addition, the investment in fixed assets in the first eight months of this year increased by 5.5%year -on -year, and the growth rate fell 0.2 percentage points from the first seven months of this year.
On the other hand, the manufacturing procurement manager index with leading indicators reached 49.5%in August, which was atrophic.During the same period, the factory price index of industrial producers decreased by 0.8%year -on -year, the largest decline in three years.This shows a weak supply and demand in production.In terms of consumption, car sales fell 9.9%year -on -year in August, continuing the decline in the past 15 months.
Facing the pressure of economic downturn, the Chinese government has made a lot of efforts to maintain growth.In terms of monetary policy, it recently announced that the second time this year has comprehensively lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions (reduction) 0.5 percentage points.In addition, it has an additional targeted reduction in provincial -level urban commercial banks by 1 percentage point.The reduction of this time, the release of approximately 900 billion yuan (about 174.6 billion yuan).In terms of fiscal measures, it launched a tax reduction measure of 2 trillion yuan.On the other hand, it also encourages the consumption of automobiles and appliances.
However, a series of economic slowdown data shows that if China wants to avoid economic growth from 6%to 6.5%, it may be necessary to increase economic stimulus measures.In fact, in terms of China's current economic aggregate and strength, it still has a lot of policy space in terms of Six Six aspects.However, the Chinese government shows that its active fiscal policy and anti -cyclical adjustment will abandon the method of large water irrigation in the past and change the directional drip irrigation methods to maintain stable economic growth.
After the global financial crisis in 2008, China launched a 4 trillion yuan stimulus facilities and successfully got rid of the risk of recession.However, the economic supporting facilities of Dashishui Passion have pushed up the debt of local governments and enterprises.After that, the Chinese government actively promoted deleveraging to reduce debt, but the tightening of Yin Gen also gave birth to the emergence of shadow banks.
The weaker trade war and global demand have led to deleveraging and the slowdown of cleaning shadow banking.However, in the lesson of the car, this round of counter -cycle regulation is used, which means that the Chinese authorities will be more cautious in stimulating the economy and relaxing policies.
After the rating is reduced, the market generally expects that the central bank will also reduce the operating interest rate of the interim borrowing convenience.However, yesterday, the central bank conducted a medium -term loan convenience of 200 billion yuan, and the interest rate was not reduced, and it remained at 3.3%before.At the same time, the interim borrowing facilities of 265 billion yuan expired.After the two phases were offset, the central bank actually chose a shrinkage operation.Analysts believe that the central bank carefully avoids the market after the rally is reduced.
Similarly, the real estate market is an important pillar of the Chinese economy, and relaxation of the real estate market has a good role in economic growth.However, according to the Chinese President ... the house is used to live, not a word for speculation, the possibility of relaxing the real estate market in China is also greatly reduced.
The Chinese State Council Prime Minister Li Keqiang recently pointed out in an interview with Russian media that in the context of intricate international situations, on the high base, the Chinese economy can still maintain a medium and high -speed growth of more than 6%, which is very difficult.At the same time, he said that steady growth is mainly for employment. As long as the employment is sufficient, the income continues to increase, the environmental quality continues to improve, and the growth rate is more acceptable.
However, the premise of maintaining employment is to have stable economic growth.As the US -China trade war is difficult to distinguish, the pressure on the economic downturn has increased, and the employment market and market confidence may be impacted.From this perspective, the bottom line of 6%of the growth is an important psychological barrier and plays an important role in the desire to consume and investment.As the global economic slowdown, whether China's economic growth can be maintained, it is also related to the development and stability of the region.
