Trial Time
The RMB exchange rate has been linked to the US dollar for a long time, which has exacerbated the structural imbalances generated in the economic development of the two countries.Therefore, promoting the gradual decoustification of the RMB with the US dollar will cause a short -term impact, but in the long run, it will help improve the marketization level of the exchange rate, increase autonomy of their respective monetary policies, thereby improving external imbalances, and promoting the sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade.
Decoupling is originally an economical term. Now, some people in the United States apply to all aspects of bilateral relations.At this time, the meaning of decoupling has changed completely, becoming an international political language. It attempts to cut off the normal exchanges between China and the United States in various fields such as economy, trade, technology, and humanities, allowing the two countries to get out of contact and move towards the Cold War.From the perspective of practical conditions, the current Sino -US trade negotiations have encountered great obstacles, but sooner or later there will be a result. China and the United States are unlikely to completely cut off economic and trade and humanistic exchanges, but the possibility of technology decoupled is more realistic.
The Trump administration has introduced a number of policy measures to sanction from Huawei, ZTE, and restricting Chinese -funded acquisition of American sensitive technologies to restricted personnel. The United States is building walls to block Sino -US technological exchanges.These measures are not within the current scope of negotiations and are difficult to reverse.Therefore, the biggest risk of the current decoupling of China and the United States is the decoupling of technology.
Technology decoupling is more harmful than economic and trade decoupling.The application of science and technology is extremely extensive, that is, it can be benefited or disaster, depending on restrictions.In the context of the confrontation and hegemony of the great power, the technology produced by modern science theory has to be used to create large -scale killing weapons, which is human sorrow.
During World War II, Germany and the United States used the theory of atomic theory to make nuclear bombs. Fortunately, the United States was faster, otherwise the fate of human beings was unimaginable.At the beginning of the Cold War, the computer created by the calculation of mathematics theory was first used to measure the trajectory of the ballistic missile. After decades, the East and the West moved to ease, and the computer entered the civilian.
The computer technology really flew into the home of ordinary people and supported the global Internet world. It was completely over the Cold War and the world appeared in a trend.Peace and development have become the theme of the times, and only the leap development of new technologies such as information and communication, benefiting the world in a short time, and promoting a globalization era.Only in this era, the results of the new technological revolution have basically achieved simultaneous applications of military and civilians, and benefited simultaneously, and many civil applications even lead the national defense military applications.This is the progress of history.
A large number of leading technologies represented by 5G technology, artificial intelligence (AI) technology, blockchain, etc. show us the abnormal and broad and disruptive application prospects. Human survival methods are facing a huge impact.Worrying.The most cutting -edge scientists and technicians are thinking about a major issue.As Musk said with Ma Yun recently, artificial intelligence made him scared because he could not predict what it could do and what to do.The widespread application of life science, genetic technology, big data, etc. bring severe challenges, pointing directly to the limit of human extreme ethics and fundamental survival laws.
If it is still in the Cold War, I believe that these technologies will only block high -level laboratories, directly used to develop homicide weapons, improve the country's strategic deterrence and military destruction capabilities, and will not be opened to the people until the next generation of alternative technology.However, the Cold War has been over, and the new technology has quickly moved towards the society. We face a future that may not be able to control in advance.This challenge is overwhelming, how should we deal with it?
The U.S. government is increasing antitrust investigations of science and technology giants. Congress convens hearing, and the regulatory authorities issued Libra Coins (LIBRA) in detail.The doorman.However, at the same time, the United States announced that it has entered the era of competition in large powers and launching a new cold war in China is a dangerous trend that is contrary to historical trends.
The United States wants to suppress and block it through technology to prevent Chinese scientific and technological progress. It is obviously futile; not only that, it will lead to a very harmful attachment consequences.With the Cold War of Science and Technology, Sino -US strategy has continued to intensify, which may force the two countries to tilt new technology research and development and application in the field of defense and security.The United States believes that the competition of great powers is the development direction of the world. The Trump administration is applying for national security in new technologies in the fields of 5G, AI, and digital economy. The United States has formed the Internet forces and the Space Army to actively apply new technologies to militaryization.
These movements not only prevent humans from benefiting from the extensive civilian use of the new generation of advanced technologies as soon as possible, but also hinders countries to make correct judgments on the social threats of new technologies.Sexual conflict edge.
Without the confrontation between Germany and the United States, atomic theory may be used for power generation instead of creating nuclear weapons first.The United States has blocked Hitler, but Bibi, Germany, to create ballistic missiles first, and it is not far from successful atomic bombs.The United States blocked the Soviet Union in full. The Soviet Union not only created atomic bombs, but also sent artificial satellites into space earlier than the United States.The United States comprehensively sanctions North Korea, and North Korea's nuclear guidance progress is still difficult to stop.The establishment of the Paris Coordination Committee and other organizations in the United States has been blocking China for sensitive technologies, and China's defense construction is still changing with each passing day.
Technical blockade has never changed the result of the arms race. What role to block is to help the opponent clarify the direction and stimulate the opponent to get the ability to worry about.
David Middot, the chairman of the National Committee of the United States and China Relations; Lamples said in an interview recently that he sometimes worried that some young people between China and the United States did not fully understand what the conflict between the two countries actually meant.This says half of the facts, and half of the facts are that some elderly people in Washington have the power of power, I am afraid that it is not clear where the challenges brought by new technological changes are.
These threats cannot be accurately predicted, but they really exist.Even if China and the United States and countries around the world work together, they are still unsatisfactory.But now their thinking is filled with the so -called Chinese threat, and there is no time to perceive the real threat from new technologies.They are trying to try to prevent China's rejuvenation, but launching the Cold War of Science and Technology is the most dangerous and lack of judgment among all response measures.
The author is executive deputy director of the Institute of Peace Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
