Author: Qiu Changtai
When the 31st Kuomintang's elderly co -signed reports that Guo (Taiming) Han (Guo Yu) united to save the Republic of China, Guo Taiming announced that he would withdraw from the Kuomintang at a speed of thunder.The appetite of the voters who caters to the Ke camp, the Mid -Autumn Festival Uprising successfully condensed the third road represented by Guo Ke.
The foreseeable political variation is: Taiwan announced that it will enter the three parties of green, blue and white, and next year's legislature elections. The green camp will be severely lost blood, the blue camp is small, and the white camp will be amazing.After the comprehensive governance advantage of the Legislative Yuan, even if President Tsai is successful, he will repeat the dilemma of the three parties of the former President Chen, which is difficult to achieve.
The presidential market under the three parties will become extremely sensitive and complicated. The wind blowing before the election will affect the results of the election. The key to success is: whoever can stabilize the basic disk and attract the trap will win!
At present, it seems that President Cai (English) has stabilized the basic green disk, and the deterioration of the anti -China situation in Hong Kong.From the perspective of their political transcripts and various political knots, it is difficult to break through 50 % of the votes.
Most of the white camps are the middle voters who ignore independence and care about economic issues. They criticize Cai Ruo to play their power and successfully crack the green camp young and free voters.The problem of Guo Taiming is that the mouth is ordinary, insufficient thinking, not to mention that the economic and political opinions are easily absorbed and even marginalized by the blue -green camp?
Guo absorbed the economic blue that was difficult to look back at about 10 %. Han's basic disk will be reduced to about 30 %. In addition, the successful operation of black and Korean during this period has greatly shrunk the middle and youth tickets., Must face.
From the perspective of voter structure, Guo Taiming's independent election has limited impact on the Han camp. Therefore, the dismissal of the party and the evil words are only to appease the boring move between Hanfan and the deep blue voters, and there is no supplement to the return of economic blue.Guo received the influence of Cai Ying's voters, but the influence on Cai Ying was greater. President Cai was silent for several months to Guo's silence and asked reporters if it was not good for the campaign., Show a sense of crisis.
The Korean camp strategy should be to raise the level of the election campaign to become the unified and independent war, to dilute Guo's economic and political opinion;The following.
The voters under the three parties have found the identity objects. The middle tickets will be less than the previous sessions. It is estimated that only about 10 % left.In terms of voters, it is a matter of relief, and there is no need to be too sad.
