Lin Yuan
In the history of Taiwan's elections, in 2014, it affected 2016. After the Kuomintang defeated in the local election, it was hit hard in the president and legislators elections.So, will 2018 affect 2020?Last year, the Kuomintang won in local elections. Will the election in 2020 be more optimistic?At present, it seems difficult to be optimistic, at least the presidential election.
The Kuomintang launched a presidential candidate Han Yu, a presidential candidate in the state of decline.Looking at the recent polls, he has lagged behind Cai Yingwen, and it is still impossible to see that he can relied on his own power to get rid of the passive situation.In the past, Chen Shui -bian and Ma Ying -jeou were successfully re -elected as presidents, and this time Tsai Ing -wen may also be like them.
However, there are still variables in the election, and the variables are first out of Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe.In 2018, the Democratic Progressive Party decided not to cooperate with Ke Wenzhe in the Taipei Mayor's election campaign and launched the party candidate Yao Wenzhi.However, this move allowed the DPP to pay a heavy price in the 2018 election campaign.Not only that, the DPP is likely to pay for it in 2020.
South Korean Yu criticized Tsai Ing -wen, and people may be regarded as a manifestation of blue -green fighting.But Ke Wenzhe criticized Tsai Ing -wen, which will have a greater impact on the middle voters.Recently, Ke Wenzhe's offensive against Tsai Ing -wen has continued to have many aspects. For example, on August 5, he said that you have no corruption, but everyone next to you is corrupted!This kind of words are obviously lethal on the image of the DPP, and may even enable people to connect Tsai Ing -wen in power with Chen Shui -bian.
Ke Wenzhe also criticized Tsai Ing -wen's diplomacy and cross -strait policy: I think Xiaoying is pro -Anti -Anti -Anti -in, and this attitude is not right.Tsai Ing -wen thought that the two sides of the diplomacy were its long term, but Ke Wenzhe obviously didn't think so.Tsai Ing -wen's real problem is that if she is re -elected, how will cross -strait relations evolve in the next four years?What should she do if cross -strait relations continue to deteriorate?Ke Wenzhe's questioning of Cai Yingwen's cross -strait policy may make voters more concerned about the problems she will face after re -election.
Not long ago, Ke Wenzhe also said that he has been waiting for Xiaoying's national political transcript, which is actually almost to General Tsai Ing -wen (although someone is interpreted as goodwill). After all, the DPP has controversially controversial politics for several years, and this is also it in 2018One of the main reasons for local elections.Cai Yingwen can only respond to her transcript to the people, not to be handed over to specific political parties and politicians.
In 2018, before the Lvke broke up, Tsai Ing -wen asked Ke Wenzhe to confirm the value of Taiwan.On August 25 this year, Ke Wenzhe said in an interview: The people in Taiwan want to know what the value of President Xiaoying is.This is against General Tsai Ing -wen.It is not difficult for Tsai Ing -wen to give the answer, but at this time she discusses her point in detail and does not have any impact on her election., Safe, freedom of democracy, etc.).
If the election in 2020 shows a blue -green duel, Cai Yingwen's election is more optimistic.However, if Guo Taiming joined the war with the support of Ke Wenzhe, or Ke Wenzhe's own election with Guo Taiming's unsteady, for the current leader Tsai Ing -wen, he means major variables.The middle voters who are dissatisfied with Korean Yu, and young voters, have originally voted to Tsai Ing -wen, but if Ke Wenzhe supports Guo Taiming to run for election, or Ke Wenzhe's own election, he should attract some middle voters and young voters.Obviously a little unfavorable.
From the perspective of Tsai Ing -wen, Ke Wenzhe will be more negatively impact on her, which will exceed the Kuomintang candidate Han Yu (even if Considering that Ke Wenzhe will attract a few pan -blue voters, it is not conducive to Korea Yu).In particular, Ke Wenzhe ran for himself. Because he was attractive to some light green, Guo Taiming was more lethal to Cai Yingwen than he supported the blue.At present, Ke Wenzhe is bound to play a specific role in 2020, and this may be the price that Tsai Ing -wen has to pay. She still pays for the mistakes of Breaking in Green Ke in 2018.In 2018, it is affecting 2020 in this way.
One of the main reasons for the Kuomintang's election in 2018 is the rise of Han Liu. The most important hero is South Korea Yu.From this perspective, South Korea ’s representatives of the Kuomintang played for 2020, which can also be regarded as a specific way of affecting 2020 in a specific way in 2018.However, the public opinion before the local elections in 2018, such as flowing water, is also showing in a specific way before the 2020 election.The impact of 2018 on 2020 may not be as simple and direct as people think, but more elusive.
The author is a scholar, a doctor of history
