Author: Lee Wo Wall
It is not surprising that the currency rising derogation is common, but the US -China trade war extends into a exchange rate war, and the two sides are strong and turbulent; the currency depreciation is used as a counterattack method, but the exchange rate fluctuations are abnormally exacerbated.For example, on August 5th, affected by the trade war and the three removal of Hong Kong, the transfer of RMB to the US dollar was reduced to the US dollar.EssenceIn the past two consecutive weeks, the renminbi depreciation has not been rest; on the 23rd, due to the impact of the US -Canadian tariffs and the US dollar index strongly, the middle price of the RMB fell to the 7.05 yuan mark.The offshore renminbi below the 7.10 yuan level.
Although the renminbi derogatory, the trend of the US dollar during the same period is from the rise and the depreciation of 0.26%; it is enough to prove that the RMB depreciation is due to the appreciation of the US dollar;Factors?There are still different opinions.However, if it is observed from a strategic perspective, the depreciation of the renminbi will undoubtedly become one of the most powerful chips and the most powerful weapons against the US -China trade war.However, the currency rising is a double -sided blade; if too much degradation, the negative impact will follow.Among them, the trade dependence of Asian countries and the mainland has increased day by day, and the correlation between currency correlation is getting higher and higher; once the renminbi continues to derogate, the chance of currency compete is naturally increased.
The yen climbed from a low point in April this year to the recent high point, with an appreciation of more than 6%; it was more than 5.6%of the RMB 5.6%during the same period.What is suspicious is why the coins are degraded by the yen?The first is due to the demand for risk aversion, because Japan has been in low interest rates for a long time, attracting global investors to borrow Japanese yen for other currencies for investment; once international financial risks increase, market turmoil often trigger asset panic selling, and then the withdrawal funds that withdraw from exitIn exchange for the yen to repay the debt, it will cause the yen's waves to appreciate.In addition, international risk aversion funds usually shortnate US dollar, euro or RMB to increase holding the yen arbitrage.Furthermore, because Japan is the world's largest foreign creditor's rights, the inflation level is low, the risk of the yen has a relatively low risk of the value of the yen due to inflation; the yen will undoubtedly become a actual risk aversion and arbitrage currency.
In other words, the rear seat force caused by currency competing is much larger than that of tariffs.Krumman, the Nobel Prize winner, pointed out that if the United States and China cannot restrain it, it may evolve into a comprehensive trade and currency war.On the 23rd, the State Council Customs Customs Committee announced on the 23rd to counter the countermeasures of the United States, and levied 10%and 5%of tariffs to 5078 tax items native to the United States, about 75 billion US dollars.The anger of Trump's news was issued to order US companies to withdraw from the mainland; and it will impose tariffs on all 550 billion products imported from the mainland.U.S. stocks have taken the lead in defeating on Friday, and recent stock exchange fluctuations will inevitably expand.
In particular, the yield of the US debt was unsolved, and the economic recession was shrouded in the haze of economic recession;Since the beginning of this year, nearly 20 central banks in the world have cut interest rates; if currencies of emerging market countries are forced to compete with the US dollar and RMB, emerging economies with heavy foreign debt will worsen the snow and even trigger a local financial crisis.Economic growth has declined, and Taiwan is difficult to settle outside and is not optimistic.
(The author is a professor at the Department of Finance and Finance of Tamkang University and deputy director of the Cross -Strait Financial Research Center)
