Jiang Tiegang
From February 27 last year to March 3 this year, Liu He, chief representative of China -US trade negotiations to visit the United States, went to the United States to visit the United States.EssenceUnfortunately, there is still a serious strategic misjudgment among the negotiating teams of the two countries so far.
If you consume this way, it is equivalent to delaying effort and waste the money of taxpayers in vain.As a bystander from the people, they were anxious for them, so they might as well pick up the words, put the chess game clearly, still do not talk about it at a glance, and then come to a crisp break.
The United States' misjudgment of China's strategy is to think that China will make no principle concessions under the limit of pressure and intimidation of the United States.After the start of the China -US economic and trade negotiations, the United States attacked all the way, and the Chinese side retreated all the way, and finally forced the Chinese side to retreat. By the 11th round of consultations from May 9th to 10th this year, the three bottom lines of China Mdash; mdash;All tariffs and requesting trade procurement figures should be in line with actual situation. The text expression method must be accepted by the Chinese people.Different from the United States in the process of negotiations, it is continuously putting the wind out, and China's external expression is very cautious.
These three bottom lines, Liu He said in person that the People's Daily publicly reported that it was tantamount to the world. This is the principle of China that cannot be shaken.
China ’s strategic misjudgment of the United States is to think that the United States can understand China’ s statement.Frankly speaking, when China and the United States conducted the 11th round of consultations, Liu He visited the United States without visiting the United States and endured huge pressure on public opinion.Because the United States has previously announced that it has once again raised tariffs on Chinese -American transit products, and also threatened tariffs on all Chinese goods in the United States.Unfortunately, the United States is not considerate at all, or I do not know this at all, and finally let the consultation end.As a result, China began a Jedi counterattack, and the situation of China -US offensive and defensive changes.
The 12th round of negotiation between China and the United States was dragged to the month after the meeting of the heads of state of China and the United States only held, and the location of the consultation from Beijing to Shanghai was actually issued from Beijing.The strong signal of gongs and drums opened separately.However, the United States only pays attention to its own demands, can it be satisfied, and does not understand the good intentions of the Chinese side at all.
On August 1st, Trump heard the US negotiation team in the White House. After a report on the 12 rounds of consultations in China and the United States, he quickly stated through social media that the United States will be imported from China from September 1st.U.S. dollars are 10%tariffs.Previously July 30, when the 12th round of consultations in China and the United States, he also stated in social media that China was elected as presidents in the other Democrats in order to reach a agreement that can continue to take advantage of the United States. Once he succeeded in success, he succeeded in success.The re -election in the 2020 presidential election will issue more tough trade conditions to the Chinese side, so that China will obtain worse trade negotiation results.
Trump does not think about it. His self -proud set of extreme pressure and intimidation blackmail tricks are used regardless of small and medium -sized countries such as North Korea and Iran.Moreover, the extreme pressure and intimidation and blackmail of North Korea and Iran are in the military field. If it is not good, it is to be dead; and the extreme pressure and intimidation blackmail of China are in the field of economic and trade, and no matter how powerful it is.
U.S. extreme pressure and intimidation and blackmail will indeed have a negative impact on the Chinese economy; but in turn, it will also have a negative impact on the US economy.Moreover, even if the Chinese economy is worse, the growth rate is two or three times that of the United States. In this case, what qualifications and costs do Trump have to laugh at China's economic performance?
As for Trump said, China hopes that the Sino -US economic and trade negotiations will be dragged to the US presidential election in 2020. At that time, the subjective judgment is to see the situation, it belongs to the typical gentleman's belly with the heart of the villain.Of course, Trump is the trouble of China, and it is the trouble of many countries in the world, but he is the first time in the United States.Since he became President of the United States, the world's reputation of the US president, the image of the US government, and the American democracy have undergone subversive changes.
To put it home, in the context of the world's unprecedented changes in the world, US presidents like Trump can not find it all over the world under the lantern.Before you have time, how can you look forward to changing a US president in order to change the trade deficit of hundreds of billions of dollars?
All in all, games that are pressured, countermeasures between China and the United States, and re -controlled games can not continue anyway, because this is not good for anyone.First of all, to tell the United States, since China has already clearly clearly clear the bottom line, then the United States must judge whether the bottom line of the Chinese side can be acceptable. If it cannot be accepted, it will be notified that China will not continue to talk;Still obsession, then China will make a judgment for the United States. Can the United States accept the bottom line of the Chinese side? If it cannot be accepted, it will notify the United States not to continue talking.
From the perspective of people's onlookers, the demands of China and the United States are far from each other. It should be the most rational choice.Some people may ask, what if they do not talk about the tariffs imposed by each other to each other?Nothing is to do. Anyway, China and the United States are one of the two largest economies in the world.It is about to rain, and the mother is going to marry, so go with him!
The author is an independent scholar in Beijing
