Summary: The uncertainty of the Sino -US trade war is uncertain and powerful

A week review

As the Sino -US trade war is still confusing, the Central Bank Annual Symposium held at Jackson Hall, USA, was held in Waiomang State on Thursday, U.S. time.The keynote speech delivered by the Federal Reserve President Powell at the opening ceremony is the key to investors' hope to find new clues to monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve will reducing interest rates to 75 basis points to market expectations will come true today.However, compared to the Fed's entanglement for whether to cut interest rates, many central banks around the world have adopted a loose monetary policy to boost the economy.

China is also trying to cope with the slowdown of economic growth and the negative impact of the trade war with the United States.The People's Bank of China slightly lowered the benchmark interest rate under the new mechanism on Tuesday to reduce financing costs and adjusted the one -year loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) to 4.25%after the reform of the reform.Analysts pointed out that the slow adjustment has reserved space for further reduction in the next few months.

RMB will continue to face pressure

Xie Dongming, an economist of Overseas Chinese Bank, wrote in the pen yesterday that compared with Asian neighbors, the Central Bank of China has more concentrate on monetary policy. Theoretically, this is a good thing for RMB.But the helpless dollar is too strong, still making the RMB under pressure.The development of the trade war is not optimistic. Although the US Department of Commerce has extended the Huawei procurement permit for 90 days, it will add more Huawei subsidiaries to show that the United States' scientific and technological war on China is a long -term process.

The Ministry of Commerce of China continued to reiterate the countermeasures and the list of unreliable enterprises, showing that China will not compromise in the short term.The strength of the US dollar and China's tough attitude in the trade war means that the renminbi may continue to face pressure.

At the same time, China's latest economic data shows that the main economic indicators are lower than market expectations.

Among the 12 analysts who received Bloomberg survey, seven stated that if US President Trump imposed an additional 300 billion US dollars of Chinese goods, a 10%tariff will reduce the growth rate of China's exports by 0.5 to 1 percentage point.It is expected that China's GDP (GDP) will increase by up to 0.5 percentage points year -on -year, which is less than 6%.This will be the lowest level since 1990.

Bloomberg's analysis pointed out that the views of the economic engineers interviewed highlight that the Chinese economy is in an important juncture, while facing weak domestic demand, and on the other hand, the trade war with the United States is still shaving against the wind.

Not only in mainland China, but also the uncertainty of Hong Kong's prospects, but also the trend of sharpness.On the one hand, as the situation is becoming more and more tense, people are worried that the Chinese authorities may take direct action to calm riots.On the other hand, the protests that lasted for 11 weeks seriously impacted important industries that directly related to people's livelihood, such as retail, retail, catering, etc., and even impacted Hong Kong's long -lasting financial status in the Asian economy.Hong Kong, where environmental instability, is tantamount to worsening.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Lin Zheng Yue'e described the possible economic downturn with a tsunami; Chen Maobo, director of the Financial Secretary of the SAR Government, even more bluntly that Hong Kong's economic environment has hung No. 3.

In fact, this situation can be seen in the latest economic data.According to the latest data released by the Statistics Office of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, the unemployment rate of seasonal adjustment in May to July rose to 2.9%, breaking 2.8%of the previous 15 consecutive periods.What's more serious is that some scholars predict that the number of unemployment rates in the next six to eight months may rise to a 3.1%high, the highest value in the past two years.

In general, political uncertainty continues to ferment, and the upgrading of the Sino -US trade war will be upgraded again, which may lead to a Hong Kong economy that shrinks 0.4%in the second quarter and has a technical decline in the third quarter.

The Hong Kong business community was worried about it.Two Hong Kong banknote banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered, and Bank of East Asia published advertisements on several Hong Kong newspapers on Thursday to oppose social violence, and called on all sectors of society to communicate differentiated differences and maintain Hong Kong's international financial center status.

Ma Zhao Run, Dance Poster, Stir -fried stocks

Last week, different Hong Kong companies have been reported to condemn violence and called for the restoration of social order. Hong Kong's richest man Li Ka -shing also opened for the first time on Friday on Friday. He published different advertisements in multiple local newspapers in the name of a Hong Kong citizen.Call for the stop of violence, also known as the melon of Huangtai, how can it be picked.

Analysts estimate that the Hong Kong stock market, which is in the turbulent situation, will create the worst quarterly performance since 2015. After the market value of Hong Kong stocks has evaporated more than $ 600 billion, attractive valuations have become potential highlights, but they are unsatisfactory enterprises, but strong and unsatisfactory enterprisesProfit, but it is unlikely to turn the tide and attract investors to pay.The Hang Seng Index is still 13%lower than that of April and is one of the global stock markets.

According to the data summarized by Bloomberg, analysts expect the operating profit of the Hang Seng Index Company to decrease by an average of 19%, which will be the largest decline in the global financial crisis.In view of the upgrading of the local political situation and trade war, analysts pointed out that the business profit of Hong Kong companies in the third quarter may be worse.This inferior possibility is not fully reflected in the stock price.

When will the profitability of listed companies in Hong Kong improve?Some analysts say: To achieve this, we need at least Hong Kong's political environment stability and a agreement to end the trade war.

Lin Zhengyue said on Tuesday that he would immediately start the work to build a conversation and communication platform with the people, to resolve differences and contradictions in the goal, and he can find a way for Hong Kong.

According to Bloomberg's analysis, in view of the past 20 years, Hong Kong has been the main channel for offshore financing of Chinese companies, and funds and businesses from mainland China have also benefited Hong Kong.Today, Hong Kong and mainland China have become me in economic finance. I have you among me. Both officials have strong motivations to maintain the status quo.Therefore, China has 10 trillion reasons to let Hong Kong horse running, dancing jumping, and stocking of stocks.hope so.