Fu Fengcheng: Sunda Spring and Autumn under the Sino -US trade war

Author: Fu Fengcheng

Soybean is the key project in mainland China-the US trade war, because soybeans are the main agricultural products of agricultural states in the United States. These soy peasants are the main supporters of the President of Trump (Trump).Chinese mainland.When President Trump provoked the Sino -US trade war last year, the mainland authorities exported to the United States for a 25%tariffs on the United States for the US $ 50 billion (S $ 69.3 billion) in the United States.It became the first list of tariffs.

The number of US soybeans, which were levied 25%of tariffs, dropped half of the number of sold to the mainland.This precise shot of the mainland authorities not only produces economic effects on the United States, but also hit Trump's political foundation.Therefore, in the two -round China -US bilateral negotiations, buying American soybeans has become the main project of negotiations. Although the mainland promises to buy a large number of American soybeans, it will be cleverly controlled by the actual progress and prospects of the negotiations.schedule.In order to further pressure and stabilize the American bean farmers on the mainland, the Trump administration allocated $ 16 billion in peasants who were trapped in exports in 2018.

Brazilian soybean accident winner

On the occasion of delaying the purchase of US soybeans, in order to meet the domestic demand market in the mainland, Brazilian soybeans have become a source of replacement in the mainland market. Brazilian soybeans have reached a record high in 2018 and become the winner of this soybean brand battle.Due to the large demand for soybeans in mainland China, the rapid consumption of local soybean inventory in Brazil has led to soybean prices. Some supply and even increased price by 20%. This makes the domestic demand department in mainland China.The domestic demand department of the mainland also has the call to the government to exempt the import of US soybean tariffs.

In contrast, the US soybean market, 60%of the soybeans exported to the United States in 2017 were exported to mainland China. After July 2018, the number of exports decreased significantly. In the face of the limited results of new market results, the price of American soybeans fell sharply at the end of 2018 to 18 18%, The price is sluggish, but soybean inventory has reached a record high.The Sino -U.S. Trade war caused double -dysfunction of soybean supply and demand for both sides.

In the past, soybean was the largest agricultural product imported from the United States. In 2017, 95.53 million tons of soybeans imported from the mainland, accounting for 2/3 of the global soybean exports. The mainland itself only produced 15.3 million tons of soybeans.Therefore, more than 85%of the current mainland market demand depends on the international market.At the beginning of 2019, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Mainland issued the implementation plan of the soybean revitalization plan. It should increase the area of soybean planting in 2019 by 10 million mu. It is expected to increase the yield of 1.27 million metric tons, which is very limited to the huge domestic demand gap and improve.

In addition, as the cost of production in mainland soybeans is about 40%to 50%higher than 40%to 50%, high subsidies must be given.The mainland authorities currently provide subsidies for RMB 260 yuan (S $ 51) per mu, which will inevitably become controversy in international economic and trade in the future.

Lu 85%soybean is imported

Since the beginning of this year, African swine fever has been raging in the mainland, causing pigs to decrease only, and even the increes has also affected the demand for soybeans, which has affected the sales of Brazilian soybeans that are added and harvested, causing Brazilian soybeans to decline.In recent years, Brazil has developed a large number of tropical rain forests, increasing the production of crops such as soybeans and corn, which has caused the pressure on the earth's environmental protection. Recently, it has been resisted by the European Union to reduce environmental subsidies.Loss of the evolution.

At present, the US -China trade war has entered a stalemate situation.If the situation persists, the transfer of the source of imports in the mainland, the adjustment of the domestic agricultural structure and the development of the export market, the adjustment of the international soybean industry in the international soybean industry will have a long -term impact on the fields of economy, politics, ecology, transportation and other fieldsEssenceThe fluctuation and reorganization of soybeans in the international agricultural product market is worthy of continuing observation.