Xu Hongbo
Since the second special gold will spread, the US -DPRK relations are calm on the surface, but in fact the undercurrent is surging.So far, due to the direct stimulation of the United States and South Korea ’s military exercises, North Korea has conducted five missile tests in just three weeks in the past three weeks.It is expected that if the US -South Korea military exercise continues, it will not rule out the possibility of North Korea's continued test -to -air missiles.
Due to these missile tests, many experts and scholars used this as a evidence to start the old accounts to attack North Korea's behavior. Some even thought that the United States should fight back in a stronger attitude, but in my opinion, several tests in North Korea are likeWhat Trump said: ordinary behavior, there is no need to interpret too much.
To understand North Korea's approach, we should first understand North Korea's leaders.As the new leader of North Korea, Kim Jong -un has shown an unusual style of doing things since he came to power.As a leader with an overseas background and influenced by his parents, he has the concept of governing the country and the flexible means of exchanges of Western politicians.Kim Jong -un knew that he must be internally in the first place, so we saw that he used seven years to eliminate dissidents and stabilize the regime.
Kim Jong -un knows the necessity of relations with China, and visited China three times in 2018.It is worth noting that each visit to China has a strong purpose: to improve China -DPRK relations, improve North Korea -South Korea relations, or preview for the United States and North Korea.But in 2018, Kim Jong -un began to be normal, showing his independent thinking.He no longer rely on China, and began to use his successful test -shooting long -range missile enough to launch a substantial threat to the United States to accelerate negotiations with South Korea and the United States.In diplomacy, Kim Jong -un's approach has given the outside world the illusion of North Korea.
From the beginning of the stable regime, to the substantial threat to the United States through the successful development of intercontinental missiles, in order to increase its negotiating chips, and throw olive branches from China, South Korea and the United States in 2018. After successful support in China, it will be friendly with South Korea.The negotiations and finally met with both hard and hard and finally met with the United States. Kim Jong -un achieved real thoughts that he could travel freely in the competition of large powers. It can be seen that he is not as irrational as predicted by the outside world.This means that what Kim Jong -un did when dealing with the relationship between great powers may be purposeful.After North Korea constantly fired new missiles and appeases the United States by letters, it can be seen that there is a proportion in his heart.
New missile testing is also a test of the United States. It is not impossible to collect it when it is good.This also means that Kim Jong -un's test missile is within the controllable range of crisis. In rationality, it will not make an excitement.As long as Kim Jong -un did not test intercontinental missiles or again publicized the nuclear test, the impact on the situation in the entire region will not change too much.
If we understand the reasons for the several test missiles in North Korea, we will reduce the overgraduate interpretation.First of all, the direct reason for North Korea's test missiles is to express dissatisfaction and resistance to the US and Korean military exercises.From the perspective of North Korea, although the Second Special Fair failed, the Two Two Special Golds have won more stable support for Kim Jong -un in China. What Kim Jong -un has to do now is to reduce the existing basis to reduce the North Korea as much as possible to North Korea.Economic sanctions.But it is worth noting that starting in 2018, North Korea has paid more attention to the development of the domestic economy and also needs a stable internal and external environment.The US -South Korea military exercise says that the United States may return to the state of the previous state, which is extremely detrimental to North Korea.North Korea ’s test missiles vented their dissatisfaction, but at the same time they contacted the United States, hoping to return to negotiations again, and it was a demand for its own development.
Secondly, North Korea test missiles directly threatened South Korea.North Korea's launch of new missiles is also indirectly reminding South Korea that the direct threat of South Korea is North Korea.Umbrellas in the United States are unlikely to provide South Korea to help MDASH; mdash; far water cannot be relieved.At the same time, North Korea has recently threatened South Korea. If the US -South Korea military exercise continues, North Korea may cancel dialogue with South Korea and convey a signal to South Korea. If South Korea continues to be alone, South Korea's fate will no longer be in its own hands.
Throughout South Korea's relations, North Korea has used both hardware and hardness of South Korea, making South Korea abandon some claims.Or put pressure on South Korea and let South Korea pressure the United States to abandon the sanctions against the DPRK.After all, it is more important than outsiders, and fate is more important in their own hands.In the end, North Korea ’s new -type missile also hopes to show muscles from the United States and its allies to add chips to future negotiating tables.
In summary, several tests in North Korea are the muscles within the controllable range to increase future negotiation chips, and the formal threats are more than actual threats, so there is no need to over -interpret it.
The author is an assistant researcher at the South China Sea Research Institute
