Turning in the Time Language
Due to the official exit of the United States, the medium -range missile treaty signed in 1987 was ended.This is the first agreement reached by the United States and the Soviet Union to truly reduce and destroy considerable nuclear weapons, which has a huge role in world peace in the following decades.In the Cold War era of sharp confrontation, the Supreme Leaders of the United States and the Soviet Union could overcome the huge distrust of both sides; today's Russia has already abandoned communism, but has not allowed the United States to maintain this international peace obligations on paper.Debid of trust.
There are two excuses in the Washington withdrawal agreement. One is to accuse Moscow of violations of the treaty. The other is reported by the New York Times, and the treaty is bound to the United States against China.From the perspective of various signs, the second excuse is more critical.Therefore, in addition to a new round of military reserve competitions, the international community also faces the military confrontation of the three top three in the United States and China.The new China -Russia strategic bomber joint cruise and the Chinese Navy's Marine Corps participated in the landing tactical exercises of Russia's Kalinrad, all of which attracted the attention of international media.
In my opinion, the current Sino -Russian relations have a great motivation for power. The main interests of both parties are the threat and pressure on the US hegemony.In addition, the personal role of Russian President Putin is also very important.From a long -term perspective, China -Russia's quasi -alliance relations have considerable uncertainty.
Due to the conquest of Mongolia and Tataar Yoke, which has been oppressed for centuries, the Russian nation has a deep fear attitude of the Russian nation.In addition, the Western complex that Russia has gathered for hundreds of years has been gathered since Emperor Peter the Great, which is also obvious in Premier Medvedev, who takes turns with Putin.On the other hand, Russia is the country with the most Chinese territory.It is the current Belt and Road Initiative. It involves many old soils of the Western and Tang Dynasty in history. It is still regarded by many Russian people as an infiltration of Russian traditional Central Asian backyard.Some people in Europe and the United States look forward to that in the Putin era in Russia and the Western leader, not groundless.
But this prospect is premise that Washington has a substantial change in Russia's strategy.I think the possibility is very small.May wish to review the evolution of US -Russian relations in recent years.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, in Yuan Shikai's founding President Yerxin, Russia introduced the Western economic model, which is increasingly closely related to European and American relations. It was a time to join the Great Western honor circle.Faced with such a Russian leader who was to be neighbor with Western Western, President Clinton In 1994, in order to in order to exchange the unity of the Soviet Union in order to exchange the United States, the NATO will not expand to one inch outside the East Germany border.NATO expanded to almost all the original Warsaw Treaty countries, and also included the three Baltic nations that belonged to the Soviet Union.
The reason for NATO's eastward expansion was that the former Secretary of State Baker made Gorbachev's only promise of verbal gentleman.Scholars in Washington University in Washington, USA have found that in addition to Western decryption documents in recent years, they have found that this NATO will not be guaranteed to expand Western leaders in the east., German Prime Minister Cole and Foreign Minister Genko, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Gates, and NATO Secretary -General Welnes, etc., are still easily broken by Washington's geographical strategy.It is worth noting that Clinton does not belong to the eagle role in foreign policy.
Even so, according to the newly published memoir published by the former US ambassador William Burns, when Putin took over the Russian President, he still intends to maintain Yelsin's pro -Western policy and fall his teeth and blood.By the time of the Baltic Sea, it will no longer continue to eat the traditional sphere of influence of Russia, and is willing to work closely with the United States to establish a common front after the terrorist attack on September 1.However, Putin's good intentions were in exchange for the Georgia War (even Western media acknowledged that the former Georgian President Sakashville initiated) and the Ukrainian coup and civil war that touched the Russian soul.
In view of such a history, Russia may cooperate with European powers, especially Germany in the future, but it is difficult to change its strategic competitive historical model with Washington.In addition, the deepening of the Ukraine Civil War has completely ruined the internal unity of Slavon Orthodox Civilization.
Back to the prospects of the US -China -Russia triangle relations, we must also face the sustainability of the existing system in Beijing.The erosion of the situation in Hong Kong and the trend of de -Chinaization in Taiwan means the internalization of Confucianism civilization.Coupled with Trump's US interests first, we can say that the world situation has entered the era of civilization conflict.From this perspective, the World Bureau after the US withdrawal of the medium -range missile treaty is a bit similar to that of the famous Washington Navy treaty failed in the 1930s.This international disarmament treaty stipulated that at that time, the world's top three British -American and Japanese naval ships had only a tonnage of 5: 5: 3 and maintained international peace in the short term.The Second World War shortly after that was the precedent of ominous history abolished by the medium -range missile treaty today.
The author is engaged in scientific research in North America
