Sun Xingjie
In half a month, North Korea fired ballistic missiles, and North Korea had such a high -frequency test missile. Is it a clear inventory?of course not.On the one hand, North Korea frequently launched missiles, on the other hand, he wrote a letter to US President Trump, and expressed his urgent desire to restart negotiations.North Korea ’s frequent launch of missiles may be a retreat. It is necessary to force the United States to launch bilateral talks in the United States and North Korea as soon as possible, alleviate economic sanctions on North Korea, and provide chips for the future US -DPRK nuclear negotiations.
Promote the US -North Korea -Nuclear negotiations by launching missiles?This is the most weird situation in the current situation in the peninsula.The South Korean military attaches great importance to the advancement of North Korea's missile technology. South Korea judges that North Korea may have the technology of ballistic missiles.In contrast, the US response seems to be accustomed to it, but the British and French countries believe that North Korea's missile launch violates the UN Security Council's resolution.
The situation in the peninsula is still at a very subtle moment. Although the frequent missile launch did not cause a rebound in the United States or even a certain degree of tacit understanding, the tacit understanding of the United States was only based on North Korea's expectations for nuclearization.If Trump believes that Kim Jong -un has no willingness to nuclear, US -DPRK relations will turn sharply, and Trump will certainly not tolerate North Korea's repeated launch of missile performances.
Why did North Korea launch missiles?The direct reason is to protest the upcoming US and South Korean military exercises. In addition, he is dissatisfied with South Korea's continuous purchase of advanced military equipment.South Korea has purchased F-35 stealth fighters, which can avoid North Korea's radar.
From the distance from North Korea, it is a short -range missile. The United States has almost uniformly uniformly unified the caliber from the president to the Secretary of State to the Secretary of State to the National Security Affairs Assistant and the Ambassador to South Korea.The basic tacit understanding of the US -DPRK leaders is that North Korea does not launch in intercontinental ballistic missiles and no longer conduct nuclear tests.North Korea launched two launch in May this year. President Trump also avoided the words of using ballistic missiles, and also highlighted the US -DPRK relations in a relatively good state.
Is North Korea's missile launch just counter -US -South Korea military exercises?This is just a direct reason or a direct reason. The more real reason should be to express dissatisfaction with South Korea.In fact, after the Meeting of the US -DPRK leaders in the Banmen store, the North Korean -Korean relations not only did not improve, but continued to become cold.The reason is that the economic results of North Korea's expectations have not come true. In this year's New Year's congratulatory words, Kim Jong -un named the King Kong Mountain Tourism Area and Kaicheng Industrial Park. Without the promise of the United States, it is difficult to advance that almost any substantial cooperation in South Korea.
In addition, South Korea is still constantly updating military equipment, and the military exercise of the US -South Korea coalition forces has not stopped.North Korea ’s missile launch since May this year should be relatively clear, mainly South Korea.The talks issued by officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of North Korea are very clearly criticized and even insulted in South Korea. In the future, the negotiations of non -nuclearization are mainly the United States and North Korea, which has nothing to do with South Korea.South Korea has been completely marginalized in the peninsula diplomacy.
For North Korea, missile launch is not only a ritual protest, but also a stable domestic situation.First, the UN sanctions on North Korea did not relax. In 2017, it was very severe sanctions. It has been implemented for more than a year. The impact of sanctions on the North Korean economy is becoming more and more obvious.It can be lifted to a certain extent.Kim Jong -un personally instructed the launch of missiles and reports from Korean media, and he could also see the meaning of domestic politics.Second, North Korea's missile technology level is constantly being upgraded, including the development of submarines. Before the security of the peninsula has changed, the security of North Korea is still the focus of North Korea before the security of North Korea is not guaranteed.
The United States does not seem to care about North Korea's frequent missile launch.Trump believes that the missiles launched by North Korea will also test other countries.Trump's attitude is funny.First of all, he did not think that these short -range missiles were a threat to the United States. At the same time, there was no connection between North Korea's development of short -range missiles and non -denucleation.In other words, even if North Korea has achieved nuclearization, can they develop short -range missiles?After all, no nuclearization is not non -military, nor is it to lift North Korea's armed forces.In US diplomacy, balance is the core.After North Korea launched a missile, South Korea's response was to increase arms reserve and increase anti -missile level.It can be imagined that Trump waited for South Korea to purchase arms.
After the Banmen store meeting, both the United States and North Korea restarted the consultation at the work level.Both the United States and North Korea have the willingness to promote negotiations. Trump has to maintain a transcript of DPRK to increase scores to seek re -election; Kim Jong -un also hopes to relieve or partial sanctions on North Korea as soon as possible.If the launch of missiles will return US -DPRK relations to the confrontation, North Korea will not launch; and if the United States makes a strong statement on the missile launch, it will destroy the negotiation atmosphere.
The tacit understanding between the United States and North Korea is also really interesting. This is also a new feature of the interaction between US -DPRK relations. However, this tacit understanding is only based on the premise of the United States' expectations of North Korea's nuclearization prospects.If the United States believes that North Korea's short -range missile launch is an increase in negotiating chips or prelude to intercontinental missile launch, this tacit understanding will disappear.Bolton, a national security adviser, who has always been tough in North Korea, also unexpectedly stated that the test firing of North Korea did not violate relevant commitments, and it seemed to be a proof.
If the United States and North Korea can reach a certain consensus on the issue of no nuclearization, the United States will default the development of regular military forces in North Korea.If North Korea has no nuclear and cannot establish conventional military forces that are evenly matched with South Korea, the Peninsula will be in another imbalance. At that time, would South Korea be willing to obey the United States?Obviously, the United States is willing to see North Korea's restraint and balance South Korea. North Korea's threat is the driving force for South Korea to strengthen the US -South Korea military alliance.The United States also spoke in the lion, allowing South Korea to share $ 5 billion in military expenditures, while South Korea's psychological bottom line is only $ 1 billion.
The author is the Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations of Jilin University of China
