The best preparation for the Japanese and Korean trade war is the worst plan

Economic Daily News

Japan strengthened three key electronic raw materials exported to South Korea at the beginning of the month, allowing the Japanese and Korean trade war to rise quickly; then Japan would decide whether to move South Korea out of the country to ensure a safe and friendly country.Moving out, the time from Japan's output key components or raw materials to South Korea will be extended in the future. For the science and technology industry that must be struggling in seconds, it will be an unbearable blow.

After the US President Trump took office, trade frictions in the United States, Mainland China, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico have entered the stage of frequent trading of trade. The structure of multilateral negotiations in global trade in the past was gradually replaced by unilateralism.The development of the US -China trade war has allowed more countries to recognize that trade is the bargaining chip of diplomatic games; the Japanese and Korean trade war grew up in this atmosphere, and it was quite a tendency to go beyond the US -China trade war.

Japan and South Korea have long been politically obedient, but they can live peacefully in the industry. Although there are competition, they can still cooperate.However, this year's controversy, including World War II compensation, comfort women and Sonor, Makes Takashima, etc., so that the tension between Japan and South Korea quickly spread from the political and diplomatic level to the industrial level.Japan and South Korea's trade is closely. Last year, Japan's exports to South Korea accounted for 7%of the total exports. It was listed as a key semiconductor -related product for this Japan -South Korea trade war, accounting for 20%of Japan's global semiconductor exports.In other words, Japan's exports to South Korea are limited, not only the South Korean industry is created, but Japanese export manufacturers are also affected.

Compared with the products of the US -China trade war covering different fields such as technology to spreading production, the Japan -South Korean trade war is almost centered on technology, and the highest semiconductor in the technology industry is the center.The haze is reproducible.Taiwan's trade relations with Japan and South Korea are hot. In addition to TSMC exports, most of the exports of Taiwan technology industry are mainly in the middle and lower reaches.profit.

For Taiwan, the preparations for the Japanese and Korean trade war should start from the evaluation of how long and how wide the battle will be played.Optimists believe that because the United States has intervened, both national security advisers Bonaton and US technology giants have called on Japan and South Korea to find a solution to avoid intensified trade war.

The pessimist believes that the Japanese Prime Minister Abe has won the election. His foreign policy no longer follows the past and nourish the line, but actively speaks to the outside world.It can be seen that the support of the Chinese people can be seen that the voices of strong toughness to South Korea in Japan are getting higher and higher; on the other hand, South Korea will hold Congress elections in April next year.There may be hard landing.

Although South Korea intends to seek solutions through the World Trade Organization (WTO), in a short time, trade friction between the two countries cannot be resolved within months, and related industries in Taiwan will inevitably be affected.Taking the US -China trade war as an example, although Taiwan has benefited manufacturers' return and transfer effects, the export orders have been lower than the average in the past year. Although the export performance has increased in the U.S. trade, it isThe significant decline in exports shows that the impact of the trade war on Taiwan's economy is becoming more and more significant.

In addition, the Taiwan government must evaluate whether the Japanese party will deal with opponents with similar means.Although Taiwan and Japan have been closely related for a long time, and folk exchanges are still frequent, the two sides of the Taiwan and Japan are not completely unusual in political diplomacy, including Diaoyu Islands, Chongzhi Island Reef, and Fukushima Nufani. In recent yearsThere have been a lot of confrontation.Japan uses economic and trade methods to put pressure on South Korea for political purposes. Whether it will be used in others in the future, it is worth thinking about Taiwan.

For the industries, from the various cases of ZTE, Huawei, Samsung, etc. that are trapped in the war of trade, how to master key raw materials, equipment and technology has become an urgent challenge for enterprises.Taking the American technology industry as an example, an evaluation has been launched a few years ago. If the exports of rare earth are limited due to the trade war and other factors, how should companies respond.

We must assume that the Japanese and Korean trade war will not end within a few months, and the impact is not limited to the three key electronic raw materials such as light resistance agents. Japan and South Korea trade disputes are not beacon far from the sky, but the war nearly in front of you.The government and enterprises should hold the worst plans and the best preparation.