Current affairs perspective
The Sino -US trade war caused by US President Trump has stopped for more than a year.This confrontation caused by the economic disputes between the two powers not only did not stay at the level of bilateral relations between China and the United States, but caused a huge ripple effect, which had a profound impact on the international relations pattern of East Asia and the world.
In general, the Sino -US trade war has not simply evolved into a new cold war between the United States and China. Surprisingly, the unilateral tariff sticks walked with the United States hit more economies, and many countries are either the United States in the United States.Strategic allies, either near the neighbors of the United States.Trump, a comprehensive attack method that does not follow the new cold war routine, not only disrupts the global trading system based on the rules of the World Trade Organization, but also affects international relations based on cooperation and mutual trust.In particular, the process of economic integration has caused serious interference.
The unbalanced development of the global economy is a long -term problem facing international relations, and there are complicated factors behind it.In the history of international relations, this economic imbalance is one of the economic roots of regional conflicts and even world wars.However, in the context of today's globalization, the international community has established a series of mature international systems and international organizations on the basis of negotiations and negotiations to manage this economic imbalance.Even though some of the existing systems and rules are not perfect, it should not be an excuse for individual countries, especially large powers to adopt unilateral sanctions, because such a unilateral increase in tax increases have completely destroyed the rules established by the international community in the past rules.Based on the good atmosphere of disputes; and the principles of respecting rules and agreements are important cornerstones that have been globalized for a long time in the past for a long time.
As the world's largest economy and the founder of an important international system after World War II, the practice of adopting a unilateralist trade war on multiple countries not only affects the bilateral relations between the United States and these countries, but also opens the Pandora box.It has triggered the follow -up of other countries, exacerbating the rise of global trade protectionism and economic nationalism, and affects cooperation and mutual trust between countries.
As far as East Asia is concerned, in the past 30 years, different countries and regions have overcome unfavorable factors such as historical factors, ideological and territorial disputes, and gradually established a supply chain system for the global market, which has promoted the overall flying and flight of East Asian economy.Integrated process.However, the Sino -US trade war not only affected the layout of this supply chain system in China, but also led to a large number of manufacturing factories gradually evacuated China, and interfered with interaction and cooperation between other economies in the region.
Recently, trade disputes between Japan and South Korea can be regarded as the spillover effect of the Sino -US trade war.Japan followed the United States and adopted high -tech export controls on South Korea, which is economically chasing in economics, which worsen Japan and South Korea's bilateral relations.South Korea not only has a campaign to resist Japanese goods and travel to Japan, but this economic confrontation is likely to spread to other fields such as diplomacy and personnel.It has seriously hindered the negotiations of the China -Japan -South Korea Free Trade Area, as well as negotiations between the three countries and the regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) of the three countries and Southeast Asian countries.At the same time, Japan and South Korea, as members of the G20 (G20) of the Twenty Group (G20), have been upgraded in the current upgrade trade dispute at the G20 Summit of Osaka, which has covered a shadow for East Asia and global economic governance.
In addition to the three major East Asian economies of China, Japan, and South Korea, they have been involved in the trade war. Trump has recently specially named Vietnam a so -called beneficiary of the so -called trade war.The United States has initiated a punitive tariff on Vietnamese steel and accused some companies of exporting products from Vietnam to avoid US tariffs.Although Vietnam has joined the Strict Trade Strict Cross Pacific Partnership Comprehensive Progress Agreement (CPTPP), it still has not escaped the US tariff stick.The logic of the United States may also be used in other countries in Southeast Asia in the future. The Pandora box has been opened, and the East Asian economic integration process will be hindered.
From the current progress, the trade war has not evolved into a new cold war between China and the United States.Instead, the American traditional security allies have also become Trump's attack on trade and economic issues.In East Asia, large -scale trade conflicts broke out between Japan and South Korea, which belonging to the United States security allies, and the economic relations between Japan and South Korea and China did not cool down with the Sino -US trade war.This is unimaginable during the Cold War.
The trade war in the background of globalization is in the final analysis of the struggle for economic interests, not the ideological contest between different camps.In the context of the global economy's dependence, the interests of various countries are intertwined with each other, and it is difficult to form two distinct camps, and the boundaries of allies and opponents are also very vague.When countries deciding to decide their diplomatic and foreign trade policies, they have adopted the strategy of discussing and bargaining, and have no decisive practices of ideology.As far as the Sino -US trade war is concerned, the conflict between the two countries in terms of economic interests is partial rather than the global. The United States and other countries also have similar trade imbalances, but the deficit is different.
Today, the mutual dependence and staggered between the Chinese and American economies, the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War period can be compared.At that time, the two major US -Soviet camps were two major camps that were almost insulated in the economy; and now the United States, China, and other economies in the world have been closely linked, and it is difficult for strategic opponents and friends to distinguish.This is the root cause of the trade war that will not evolve into the new Cold War.
Although the trade war constitutes a considerable degree of interference in the global and East Asian economy integration, in the long run, dependence and integration are still the fundamentals of the global economy.Whether it is a trade war between China and the United States or Japan and South Korea, it is controllable and local.All parties will eventually reach a new agreement on the basis of bargaining and their respective concessions. At that time, the regional and global integration process will re -enter the acceleration channel.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Assistant Director and Senior Researcher of the East Asia Research Institute
The article only represents personal point of view
