Liao Yan: The stable relationship between China and the United States needs to surpass economic and trade to find strategies.Under the balance of domestic interests in China, the government has a greater effect on the pursuit of trade policies, and it may be boldly trying to open unilaterally.
The increasingly powerful economic and trade connection between China and the United States has failed to prevent bilateral relations from falling cliffs. In the future, China and the United States resolve the crisis of conflict and stable relationships.
Pressing stone efficacy of geometry
Economic and trade compressor stones are functional.In the 1990s, the U.S. government and Congress often caused difficulties on issues such as human rights, Taiwan, Dalai, and Xinjiang. When contradictions were intensified, Sino -US trade exchanges were facing serious threats. American companies that benefited from them would take the initiative to stand up to prevent China from preventing China from China.Policies are extreme.However, this situation has changed.The company has supported a stronger policy to China, but it has reserved tariffs.
After World War II, Sino -US relations have experienced three major changes.The fundamental reason for the change in the late 1940s was that China's regime was changed.The fundamental reason for the change in the 1970s (Ice Breaking Create diplomatic relations) was that the United States wanted to end the Vietnam War with China and fight against the Soviet Union.At present, the Trump administration defines China as a strategic competitor, and Sino -US relations have fallen down and have not yet bottomed out.
The fundamental reason for this change is that the so -called Xiu Xidide trap has emerged, that is, China is rising rapidly, and the United States believes that China's rise pose a threat to the global leadership of the United States and cause fear.In the process of rapid rise in China, Sino -US economic and trade relations are also developing rapidly, but the United States is not concerned about economic and trade interests, but in the way China creates and uses increasingly economic strength methods and purpose.Graham Bull; Professor Elison believes that the growth of economic strength has become the main source of international influence in China and the main policy tools for advancing the foreign agenda.The latest US Indian -Pacific Strategy Report states that with the growth of economic and military advantages, China has recently sought Indic -Pacific hegemonic rights and seek a global advantage in the long run.
Trade peaceful theoretical claims that the dependence of economic dependence will increase the cost of conflict between the country and help suppress conflict.Edward Bull; DBULL; Manosfield has concluded a negative relationship between the degree of economic dependence and the outbreak of the war after a detailed statistical analysis of large and small wars since the 16th century.Realists question that although economic mutual dependence is strengthened, although strengthening between countries, it also increases the fragility of the relationship.John Bull; Mills Heimer believes that the inevitable relying on other countries in key economic elements will inevitably worry that the supply will be cut off. When a country attempts to control the resource supply, it will inevitably cause conflicts, and even more more conflicts, even moreFierce security competition also appeared.
According to the logic of realism, the desire to achieve prosperity is not the main motivation for national actions. When politics and economy conflict, the former will be coaches and latter.Entering the era of globalization, the impact of geopolitics on the relationship between state is still greater than the geographical economy.Sino -US relations are essentially determined by the strength pattern, not determined by the rapid deepening economic and trade relations.The effect of compressor stones over the past forty years is a large extent an illusion, which covers the actual dominance of the power pattern.When the pattern of strength changes, Sino -US relations will definitely change. Once the basic nature of bilateral relations changes, the closer the economic and trade connection, the greater the contradictions, and the more problems will be.In other words, it is possible that China -US relations have experienced great changes. It is possible to use mutual benefit or to make a temporary ceasefire agreement, but it is probably unsuitable to use mutual benefit or benefit to make a major change in the United States' strategy of China.
Can you expect globalization
Today's globalization level is in a trough in many aspects compared with the before World War I.Based on the multinational financial traffic meter, the capital output (traffic) of the British peak before World War I was 10%of its GDP.Japan is the largest capital output of capital today, but its capital output is equivalent to only 2%to 3%of GDP.With labor flow, only 3%of people lived outside their births today, while the 19th century was the era of great immigrants. A large number of new colonies such as North America, Oceania and South America were immigrated.In terms of trade planning, the total trade volume today is very large, but the ratio of GDP is still lower than the 19th century.Since the globalization level before the First World War failed to prevent the conflict of great powers, today's globalization may not be able to protect the votes for the world peace and great powers.
Robert Bull; Giline believes that the first economic globalization died of political reasons, and two World War II interrupted this trend.The second economic globalization trend must not be subject to international politics, and cannot exclude reversal.
Globalization requires several aspects of political prerequisites.First, countries are willing to reduce the barriers, abandon some kind of protection for domestic markets and industries, and open foreign investment.The second is that there is a set of international order and economic governance mechanisms with economic governance mechanisms to deal with trade conflicts and control the economic and financial crisis.Third, countries are willing to protect domestic damaged people in exchange for their support for open markets.Fourth, big powers must ensure order stability.Entering the era of Slobalization, these conditions have changed to varying degrees.Protective measures in various countries have increased significantly in recent years; the function of international economic governance mechanisms has weakened; the policies of embedded liberalism in Western countries have gone to the end, the gap between the rich and the poor has widen, and populism has disrupted European and American political situations;Weaken, the willingness to provide public products has declined sharply, and globalization is increasingly lacking in political guarantee.Among the factors, the attitude of leading the country is the key. If the US hegemony status has declined to become the perception of the United States, it is reflected in policies, it must be more protectionism and unilateralism, and the value of international mechanisms will be degraded.The United States increases tariffs and barriers, and its long -term view will cause similar actions to other countries to reduce global openness.Globalization will still exist, but the connotation is changing significantly.The rapid growth of the digital economy and trade represents the technology and market forces that promote globalization. However, the competition between large powers has intensified, the number of trade investment barriers has increased, the multilateral mechanism has encountered an unprecedented crisis, and bilateral and regional trade arrangements have flourished.Because of the increase in its ranking, globalization is developing to the regional development of the weakened openness, and in the future, it may witness the revival of geopolitical trade groups.
How to open unilaterally
The theory of comparative advantages fully illustrates the benefits of canceling tariffs and barriers. Even if a country unilaterally cancels tariffs, it will be greater than losses.However, Professor Cruggman found that Gatt took the purpose of promoting free trade, but there were three basic attitudes of the negotiator: first, the more exports, the better; the second, the import can be less; third, the increase in imports must be necessaryIn exchange for increased exports.Free trade ideas have been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people after World War II, but the essential thinking of dominating trade policies in various countries is still a high businessism.Why?The public choice theory gives an explanation. The trade policy of the great country is the result of the game of domestic interests. The lobbying efficiency of industrial capital (tendency to protectism) is relatively decentralized to decentralized consumers (tend to encourage imports to reduce consumer prices).As for appeal is easier to be reflected.
Trade liberalization after World War II was the result of the game under the guidance of a great country under the guidance of the big country.Theoretically cancellation of tariffs can allow countries to gain net income. However, since the country has geopolitical goals internationally, it is necessary to face the pressure of interest groups in China, and they can only pursue secondary excellent results and seek free trade with equivalent openness.After the war, the United States took the lead in launching trade negotiations and promoting reduction of tariffs and barriers. The first goal was to destroy the special trade system of the British Empire and realized the reduction of tariffs and barriers to peer. Later, With exchanges.
China ’s domestic interest balance has taken different methods. The government has a greater effect on the pursuit of trade policies. It may wish to boldly try to open unilaterally.However, from an international point of view, globalization has encountered anti -winds, the competition between large powers has intensified, and economic and trade conflicts are becoming more secure.China may have to take protectionist measures including tariffs as a game means.The motivation to unilaterally cancel tariffs and barriers will become weaker. Optional and targeted openness will likely become the future direction of trade policy.American scholars' studies have shown that due to the Sino -US trade war, the United States has been excluded by China's reduction of barriers to reducing barriers.
Two and a half of the way worth considering
International ring after World War IICompared with before World War II, there are two major changes worth noting.The first is the balance of nuclear horror, which effectively restricts the contradictions and conflicts of great powers.A consensus is that only the nuclear horror balance between the great powers is the decisive factor for long -term peaceful peace between the great powers after World War II.The second is to form a systematic international governance mechanism.Before World War II, the international governance mechanism was rare and fragile, and the ability to restrict the behavior of large powers was very limited.However, the post -war international cooperation mechanism has a leap in quality and quantity. It is as large as the global and pillar mechanism such as the United Nations, and the functional and technical mechanisms of different levels and different levels.And folk mechanisms are booming.These mechanisms have a considerable role in the behavior of great powers.The international community is no longer a pure Hobbes jungle, and the order of governance has always existed and continuously strengthened.This is unprecedented in history.
In view of the deepening of economic and trade relations in history, the weakness of economic and trade relations can effectively prevent the deterioration of the relationship between the great power and the conflict of conflict, and to prevent another choice of the current country's competition to get out of control and war.These two factors have not been before World War II and may help us break through the laws of history.In addition, China can try unilateral openness, which is rarely tried by great powers. In view of the needs of the game, this openness can be selective, target, and adjust the scope and intensity as according to the situation.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view
