Lin Zhengxiu: In the 2019 Taiwan election, the situation in the triangular competition will be reached, and the final candidate will be left and right.

In mid -July 2019, South Korea won the primary election of the Kuomintang party with a large ratio, making the election of Taiwan in the coming year a treacherous situation.If the current Tsai Ing -wen and South Korea ’s duel are confronted, the two sides can be said to be evenly matched, but Han Min is high but must take into account Kaohsiung Municipal and Taiwan campaign affairs.Tsai Ing -wen has administrative advantages and has the United States.However, if the mayor of Taipei City, Ke Wenzhe joined the battle, the possibility of Cai Yingwen's election will increase significantly, and Ke Wenzhe is third in the current three polls of the three.

The last candidate for the ranking decided to choose the situation in the coming year

East Asia's geographical structure box limits the basic options of small and medium -sized political body.In the past three decades, East Asia's security commitment came from the United States, and the revenue and surplus came from China.Among them, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines show a certain commonality in the presidential election, that is, through the presidential rotation of the position, the unilateral intervention of a specific country is balanced.The Philippines completed from Benigno S. Aquino III to Rodrigo Duterte, and completed the turn of pro -beauty to pro -China.South Korea is swinging between the northern reconciliation and the United States and Japan, and there is a blue -green rotation in Taiwan.

However, in Taiwan in 2019, it reached a triangle competition, and it was still about the final candidate.An Zhexiu, who represents the third forces in the 2017 South Korean election, cannot control the results of the general election even if the votes are more than 20 %. The root cause of the 2020 election in Taiwan is the root cause of the voter structure, especially Ke's supporters.Generally speaking, Ke Fan is green but not persistent. In the presidential election, they know that the objects they support may ranks third, but they have no abandonment.They believe that Ke Wenzhe's stage of the country is more important than Cai Yingwen's re -election.

The DPP believes that 2020 is the decisive battle of the country's recognition. The situation in Hong Kong has deepened the sense of death of the green camp youth (Taiwanese netizens are called dried mango).However, young people will not come back. Ke Fan is very disgusted with the actions of the green camp. While opposing China to suppress civil rights, they also agree that Taiwan must carefully handle the relationship with Beijing.In the Japanese stiff cross -strait vocabulary, Ke Wenzhe's position slipping and the flickering of words are virtues instead of defects for supporters.Han Fan emphasizes more economic benefits and unbelievable economic benefits.

In general, the three -point pattern of public opinion in Taiwan is initially determined that Ke Wenzhe will definitely disrupt the game, and Cai and Han have unsuccessful victory.For more than half a year in the future, the situation of the three parties of the presidential candidate will make more changes in individual legislators.However, where did this process be started and presented from two to three?

Why does it form a tripartite confrontation?

Or out of arrogance or lack of separation, Beijing's strategic elasticity on Hong Kong and Taiwan has decreased, and the rest is only more scary and buying.The intensification of the US and China confrontation made all walks of life in Taiwan feel more uncertainty. The goodwill of the United States and the Taiwan and the opposition, and discounted with Trump's fickle.Blue and green are still the main structure of public opinion on the island, but more sober and separated voters feel that the words of the blue and green ends are not enough.In the end, this collective psychological manifestation also benefited from the immature primary mobilization of the two parties.

The preliminary polls of the Blue and Green Party are the rules of game -renovation. Earlier, Cai Lai's dispute between Green Camp was rumored that the blue camp was preparing to fill in the ticket to Lai Qingde, which made the Cai camp very nervous.When the Kuomintang primarily selected, the supporters of the Green Camp edited the culprit of Yu (fish) to eat Yu, and did not eat Cai (cuisine) smoothly.In the Kuomintang Party, Zhu Lilun criticized the Guo Taiming camp to abandon Zhu Baoguo; Guo Taiming scolded the owner of Wangwang Group Cai Yanming to operate the Democratic Progressive Party's methods to let the Green Camp people fake the Lan Camp supporters, but the only support for South Korea ’s Yu to suffer Guo Meng.The leading South Korean Yu, the leading poll, named Ke Fan secretly helping Guo Taiming.In the process of operating public opinion, none of them are innocent and innocent.

Critics with green camps are distressed by such a spoof, and they feel that no matter how scientific things are in Taiwan will be distorted.But like a fraud phone call is also an enlightenment of the wisdom with pain. Most people want to express their political intentions through polls, which is a collective game.Basically, both parties who intend to distort or realize that polls may be distorted are enthusiastic participants and more savvy, and in large numbers, opposing prejudice will be hedged.In the past, Taiwan elections mobilized the emotions of the national hatred. This time, the primary election of blue and green added a few black joy.

The sense of joy is the antidote of sadness, and sadness is a negative mental state.In the blue -green preliminary melee, today you cross -camping tickets, and tomorrow I will raise the opponent's opponent.That's just a moment of disguise, and it must move from the fixed thinking to the left and right, and this is the beginning of resolving the fortress and dependent thinking.When the Red Shirt Army besieged Chen Shui -bian in 2006, the chief commander Shi Mingde once used a proverb to talk to the Green Camp at the grassroots level. He said: Pet pigs on the stove., The more indulgence, the more things go wrong.

Blue Camp Restart evolution

Sadness is undoubtedly a good thing, but Han Liu is still being prosperous.What is Korean powder?From the Chinese who are enthusiastic about the global watching to the Blue Camp faction, from the novelist Qiong Yao to the fruit and the hawker, Han Fan is very real but difficult to define. It can only be said that they are the same as South Korea ’s Yu.The protagonist, but as soon as he came to power, the original opera team rolled up.This power is conservative and the possibility of changing the status quo. More importantly, they may not be convinced of the will of the leader. Many times, Han Liu is walking with President Han.

Anti -building mobilization has its global context. Social media reduces the cost of assembly. The anger that has long been ignored by the mainstream is endless fuel.Since 2018, there are Korean flow.Some blue camp elites accidentally spoke the true words of Hanfan's low class, and he heard oil and fire in Hanfan.If you carefully compare the Tea Party's overhead Republican Party and the Hallyu impacting the Kuomintang, you will find that the characters corresponding to Trump are not a businessman Guo Taiming, but the blue camp abandoned South Korea Yu.

However, has South Korea Yu have made significant breakthroughs in the Kaohsiung municipality in the past six months?In all fairness, the direction is roughly correct, but the progress is very limited.Han's words are sincere but sometimes empty, but the machines have no systematic discussion everywhere.Guo Taiming, a competitor in the party, shouted to him. He asked him to take over the president after four years of the mayor. Lonely critic Lin Zhuoshui said that Han Zhen had done it for four years, and the president did not choose.Perhaps Kaohsiung is really a problem. It is difficult to improve in the short term, so that South Korea ’s Yu is used as a big one.

There are still many variables for the president of South Korea ’s Yu. First of all, the United States does not trust him. The elite in the Kuomintang has no common language with him.During the campaign, not only can the Kaohsiung city be wrong, but also expects that Beijing and the unified faction will not be violent, so as not to lose tickets.The national politics can be used, and it is not a photo of the heart meridian.However, the president of the Korean line is an unspeakable change for the Kuomintang and Panlan. The court leader and the abroad elite will be replaced by grassroots leaders and local princes.The evolution of the blue camp for a long time has finally restarted, but the future direction is unknown.

After the war from one -party dictatorship to blue and green rotation, it took less than 40 years. Since the first presidential election in 1996, the election of 2020 will be opposed by the current president and the mayor of the North and Gao.The first is monopoly and suppression, and the other is the zero -harmony game that the winner takes, and there are at least six possibilities of the three parties.As for President Guo, who has not been able to enter the venue, it is worth noting whether it will become the fourth party.

The German Scriptures said: Life two, two lives and three, three lives, from one to two, from two to three are difficult evolution. Although it has fallen, Taiwan has continued to have two levels.However, the algorithm has changed, and the discourse must be updated.

(This article only represents the author's point of view. Responsible for the mailbox: [email protected])