Cao Xin: Last week, the focus of the world's public opinion was the information war in the new round of the new round of US -DPRK's nuclearization consultation, and the continuous confrontation and tension of Japanese and Korean relations.

In the past week, one of the focus of the world's public opinion is the information war in the new round of the new round of US -DPRK's nuclearization consultation.Through world media reports, we see that in order to force North Korea to return to the negotiating table and finally abandon the nuclear release a lot of information, there are both positions and tentatives.The focus of another world public opinion is the continuous opposition and tension of the relationship between Japan and South Korea.In addition, we have seen frequent interaction between China and North Korea, including the signing of the China -DPRK friendly cooperation and mutual aid treaty.And these focus, closely related to each other, the root is in this round of nuclearization.

The United States is in the wind, testing and trying to trade

The United States first declares its position.

Reuters Washington reported on July 10 that the U.S. State Department said on July 9 that the United States hopes to use the frozen North Korean nuclear plan as the beginning of the nuclearization process.Public opinion believes that the United States and North Korea expected to restart negotiations this month.

You know, freezing is never a solution to the process of (no nuclear).This is never the end of the process of (no nuclear), the US State Department spokesman Morgan Bull; Altagas said at a regular press conference.That will be what we want to see at the beginning.But I think the government has never frozen as the ultimate goal.This is just the beginning of the process.

The Trump administration did so to avoid the criticism of Trump's time to replace nuclear nuclear in the New York Times in the New York Times, and when the new presidential election is coming, it clarifies the position of no nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.Otherwise, with the large -scale dislike of the US media and the public to North Korea and Trump himself, the North Korean nuclear issue will become a big trouble for Trump's re -election.

The second is to throw out all kinds of transaction plan information with North Korea in a new round of work negotiations to test the North Korean response.

South Korea and North Korea reported on July 11 that it is reported that if North Korea agrees to fully abandon the Ningbian nuclear facilities and completely freeze the Complete Freeze nuclear plan, the Trump administration will consider it at 12-18 months.Temporary sanctions on North Korean coal and fiber exports.

According to reports, if the solution is effective, the United States is considering as an alternative to expand this approach to other nuclear facilities.Moreover, it is said that the final declaration declaration and the two sides set up liaison offices in the capital of the other capital. In other words, these will actually be the weight of trading with North Korea.

At the same time, Bloomberg also quoted reports from Yonhap News Agency: Anonymous insiders closely related to the White House relationship pointed out that the Trump administration will support the dismissal restrictions on coal and textiles implemented by the United Nations to North Korea as part of the deadlock agreement to break the nuclear negotiations, with a period of timeIn exchange for North Korean leader Kim Jong -un, the main nuclear facilities that Ningbian and stopped all its nuclear weapons plans.

The report also said that if North Korea fails to meet the requirements for it, sanctions will immediately restore.

If you carefully examine the above report, you will first find that once any of the above -mentioned transactions in the United States are reached, it will undoubtedly be greatly conducive to Trump's re -election campaign.

The United States can give North Korea unilaterally, such as the Declaration Declaration of the DPRK and the United States and the establishment of a liaison office in the other capital of the other party. They take them out one by one.Specific and complete, the purpose is to allow North Korea to advance on the issue of abandoning nuclear.Among them, the nuclear list should be included, and then the schedule of abandonment is abandoned.

One thing related to this is that North Korea has clearly rejected South Korea's involvement in the United States and North Korea's non -nuclearization consultations.

South Korea ’s East Asia Daily reported on July 6: It is reported that North Korea has recently expressed the meaning of not being involved in nuclear discussions in South Korea to negotiate in the United States and the United States.Bagen recently conveyed this information to people from the Korean governance circle.South Korea believes that this is a clear stated that North Korea does not want to be medals in South Korea in the nuclearization negotiations.And in the long run, North Korea will maintain the tone of the south of the United States, that is, aside from South Korea to trade directly with the United States.

According to the current behavior logic and trend of the United States, South Korea will not have the opportunity to participate in the U.S. and North Korea's nuclearization consultations.

Now that Japan has to be in politics, it has to be tough for South Korea

Last week, the world's public opinion continued to pay attention to the continuous tension and opposition of Japanese and Korean relations.

The Japanese government has implemented the restrictions on the three semiconductor -related materials exported to South Korea on July 4.According to the South Korean Central Daily, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on July 7th that South Korea claimed that he had complied with (to the DPRK) sanctions and claimed to be in accordance with the (controlling strategic material export) Warson Agreement for trade management, but in view of South Korea's onceClarifying the request agreement signed between the two governments, which makes us doubt whether South Korea has not effectively complied with the relevant regulations of trade management.Abe participated in the Fuji TV program on the afternoon of the same day: South Korea's export management had problems, and we could not believe what they said.

According to Abe's explanation, the reason why Japan conducts trade sanctions on South Korea is two reasons: South Korea violates the agreement signed by Japan and South Korea's previous government in bilateral relations, which has caused Japan to trust South Korea.The history of funding North Korea is not trusted in South Korea in terms of Japanese sensitive supplies on exports to South Korea, so trade restrictions must be carried out.

According to the introduction of some senior press in Japan, Wen Zaiyin has almost denied the agreement reached by the Park Geun -hye government and Japan since the ruling.EssenceAnother important reason is that on the issue of North Korea, which is related to the security of Japan's security and highly concerned, a series of pro -dynasty moves and stances since Moon Jae -in took office have made the entire public opinion environment in Japan unfavorable to South Korea.Therefore, no matter who is the leader, he has to be tough for South Korea.

There is also a background here that cannot be ignored, that is, a new round of DPRK and the United States will not be checked.It is foreseeable that with the progress of the US -DPRK negotiations, the US sanctions on the North Korea will also be loose, but the problem is that at this time, the grasp of rhythm and heat is very important for North Korea., At least half the effort.According to the consistent logic and practical behavior of Wen Zaiyin's government on this issue, he is likely to rush forward and do things over.At the same time, Abe should not say that it has been involved in the US -DPRK's non -nuclearization consultation, and has not even seen Kim Jong -un, and Japan is particularly sensitive to the North Korean nuclear. Therefore, Japan needs to give South Korea a warning in advance, which is in line with the meticulous characteristics of Japanese people.And uniquely, there have been recent analysis of the Peninsula Foreign Circle that because the United States and North Korea will consult alone and have no opportunities to participate in South Korea, the main focus of Wen Zaiyin's next step is to vigorously promote the exchanges of the north and south, especially strive to striveRe -operate with Kaicheng Industrial Park.In the end, the United States has not stopped the behavior of Japan, which is also meaningful.

The author believes that Abe's sanctions against South Korea also marked that in the face of the current world politics and economic trend, it is a relatively independent and tough diplomacy that Japan will go.

Last week, what also attracted widespread public opinion in the world was the frequent interaction between China and North Korea.Not only did the two parties and officials of the foreign liaison department and the government's public security departments interacted, the Embassy of the two countries in the opponent of the other party also held a commemorative celebration signed by the China -DPRK friendly cooperation and mutual assistance treaty.EssenceAlthough this year is the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, it is also difficult to exclude the background of the new round of nuclear non -chemical negotiations that the United States and North Korea will be carried out.According to the author's opinion, even without these activities, China's influence on the peninsula will still be as firm as a rock.

(Note:He is the Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center.This article only represents the author's personal point of view.Responsible for the mailbox [email protected])