Zheng Yongnian: Freedom world order or diverse world order?

What will happen in the future?(Internet)

Today's international political stage, the United States, as the core of the Western world, is the most concerned and discussion, which is undoubtedly the so -called severe challenge and its future issues facing the so -called free world order.After World War II, the United States and Britain cooperated closely to establish the Liberal World Order that people saw.The background of this order is the first and World War II of European countries.The primary goal of this order is to ensure that there are no international conditions such as World War I and World War II.

This free international order under the United States and Britain has special meanings.The free order referred to here is a large extent the extension of the free order within Western countries to the international community.This order emphasizes that the human rights of citizens must protect citizens, that is, internal order; at the international level, this order emphasizes the order of WestPhalia in 1648, that is, this order is based on it.The rule of law and the integrity of the sovereignty and territory of various countries.At the same time, this order is also open, that is, these overall principles are applicable to the world, and countries can participate in this system based on voluntary principles.

At the practical level, various international institutions have also been established under the leadership of the United States and Britain to enhance peace (such as the United Nations), promote economic development (such as the World Bank), and promote investment and trade (such as the International Monetary Fund) and later World Trade Organization.

More importantly, as many American scholars have pointed out, whether the order, maintenance or development of this order cannot be separated from the element of American hegemony, including the strong economic military forces in the United States, and it spans Europe and Asia in Europe and Asia.Alliances, nuclear weapons used to deter the invasion of other countries, and so on.In other words, the existence of the free world order is not only because of the concepts (ie, soft power) jointly accepted by democratic countries, but also the hard power owned by the United States and the West.

Confrontation of freedom and non -free world order

It is also important that the existence of the free world order depends on the existence of a non -free world order, that is, the non -Western group with the Soviet Union as the core.This premise is very important because it means: first, during the Cold War, the Western free world order is limited in the region, limited to Western groups; second, the reason for the existence of this free order,It is to cope with another unwilling order; third, it is precisely because of the existence of this non -free order that member states within the free order are willing to give up some sovereignty and give the United States to lead and coordinate the relationship between member states; fourth, the West, the WestThe group and the Soviet Group have a completely different understanding of the world order.

It is ridiculous that the problems and challenges that this free world order faces today is the comprehensive victory of this order, that is, the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.Although the disintegration of the Soviet Union and its core Soviet group has its internal complex factors, from a Western perspective, this is a victory of Western free order.This judgment has a huge impact on the West, especially the internal and external behavior of the United States, at least from these aspects.

First, the end of the Cold War led to the West that the Western free democracy system is the best and final system that can be possessed by human history. The West does not need to reform this system.The historical end of Francis Fukuyama is famous in the West, which is the real reflection of the western optimism.During the Cold War, because there was a non -free order existence, Western politicians could also use external threats to reach consensus on some internal problems.The United States is very typical. Political figures always use so -called threats from the Soviet Union and communism to understand and solve political problems (such as domestic social movements).In the absence of a clear external enemy, the political environment of the Western internal party worsening, and multi -party democracy often evolved into Fushan that Fushan said that it was vetoing politics.

Second, after the Cold War ended, while the United States (West) ignored internal problems and challenges, its foreign policy was another situation.Because of excessive self -confidence in Western freedom and democracy, the United States has begun to spend a lot of people's property, promoting Western democracy globally, whether through various forms of color revolution, or political and military means like the Democratic Plan of the Greater Middle East.

Third, the United States and the West have begun to abandon the theory of sovereign state based on the order of Westparia, develop the so -called post -sovereign state theory, and conduct so -called humanitarian intervention on other countries.Still other means.NATO's military intervention for former Yugoslavia is a typical example.

Fourth, the United States has therefore opened some scholars' new (US) empire models.Whether it is to promote democracy or humanitarian intervention, it is a means and tools for the expansion of the empire.

But all this leads to excessive expansion of the empire.The expansion of the empire is first of all in the geopolitical sense.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the West quickly occupied the geopolitical space of the former Soviet Union.Secondly, through the above -mentioned various means, it quickly extends its geopolitics to all parts of the world.The excessive expansion of the empire caused a huge problem to the United States. It was mainly manifested in geopolitical priority. The economic foundation could not keep up. The cost of the empire was too high, and it was difficult to maintain.Eastern European countries, which get rid of the shadow of the former Soviet Union, originally welcomed the arrival of the United States and the West very much, but soon these countries found that the United States and the West were only interested in their geopolitical significance, and they were not interested in their socioEssence

These emerging democracy cannot be consolidated, and the right of rightist politics tend to be authoritative often returns.Secondly, in many regions (especially the Middle East), military intervention in the United States not only did not promote the emergence of democratic democracy in the Western method, but caused anarchy, extremeism and even terrorism, and became an important source of regional and even the world's unstable.Third, even the attitude of traditional allies in the United States has changed.

On many issues, the United States began to take the unilateralist route regardless of the opinions of the allies, and it was manifested in the military operations on Iraq. In recent years, it has been manifested in the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iranian nuclear agreement.At the same time, because of the lack of an enemy like the Soviet Union that can threaten the West, American allies are not willing to pay protection fees to the United States.All this makes the United States difficult to maintain its hegemony position.

If there are three components of the free world order in the United States, the maintenance of liberalism, universality and order, all these three aspects of this order are facing a serious situation today.

First, liberal ideology is retreat.Whether in Europe or North America, major democratic countries are facing high populism.Various political parties are expanding their social foundation sharply with the help of political extremes.In the UK, the success of the Brexit referendum showed that the political elite lost its consensus and gave such important decisions to the public who did not understand the matter.

On the one hand, the transformation from traditional democracy to direct democracy, on the other hand, also means the disappearance of political elites' sense of political responsibility.The political disputes around how Brexit have deepened all aspects of Britain.More importantly, in the core of liberalism, President Trump himself has never stopped criticism and attacks as free media, courts and law enforcement agencies that are regarded as a free and democratic foundation.As mentioned above, politicians in Eastern European countries, especially Hungary and Poland, are not so interested in new democracy, and authoritativeism has begun to prevail.

Second, the intention of the United States to construct the empire is to apply its own principles to other countries through the name of freedom, butIn fact, it is just the opposite.Despite decades of globalization, it is difficult to say that the world today is a whole.The efforts of global multilateral order construction failed.The United States can have been the main body of the free world order, but the United States has retreated from this order and has changed from a supporter to a destroyer.The United States preferentially led to the rise of American protectionism.New trade negotiations at the world must not be invalid or far away.In the increasingly important Internet field, there are no rules that people can reach consensus at all.At the same time, what people see is not the rise of regional order, if it is not the disintegration of regional order (especially the Middle East).Simply put, although the United States has spent great efforts, the so -called free world order not only has not expanded, but also becomes more vulnerable.

Third, the freedom international order itself is unsustainable.From the perspective of the West, the main reason why the existing freedom international order becomes weak is the rise of other powers and the return of competition in large powers.When NATO used force intervention before Yugoslavia, the West believed that this was justice's humanitarian intervention, but when Russia used force to change the European boundary (Crimea), it was considered by the West to violate the basic international rules.The rise of China is even regarded as amendments and constitutes the most severe challenge to the international order of freedom.This is the main reason why the United States regards China and Russia as the enemy of the free world.

The prospect of the free world order

After World War II, the reason why Britain and the United States can establish the free international order accepted by the West have their special historical conditions.First of all, the United States was invited to become the leader of the Western world.The European powers killed each other from World War I to World War II. After the war, no country was capable of becoming a leader, or was accepted by other countries as leaders. The United States was invited to become their leaders.Secondly, the United States had become the most powerful country at the time, and was able to provide public products for Western society, especially the Marshall plan.Third, because the same belongs to the West, the transfer of hegemony from Britain to the United States is peaceful.

This order provides public products and is open to the world, and is recognized and accepted by most countries.More importantly, this order emphasizes the equality between the sovereignty and the country, which is pursued by all countries.However, this order has congenital defects.First of all, Western countries have solved the problem of sovereignty, but many developing countries have not solved this problem.For example, in Asia, many problems with sovereign disputes are left over from the Western colonies. Today, some Asian countries still bear the pain of colonial heritage.

In other words, although non -Western countries agree with this free world order, it is difficult to use the principles of this order to solve the actual problems they face, especially the issue of sovereignty.Secondly, the level of level order of the internal member states of the freedom international order.In the United States, the League level is strict, and the member states are forced to be in the United States and the existence of external enemies. They have no ability or to challenge the United States, although different voices appear from time to time.

After the Cold War ended, when the United States western the west extended the principle of free order to the international relations, the deepest crisis occurred in this order.This is also the situation where the world is facing today.

What will happen in the future?Obviously, given the internal and external dilemma of the West today, the rise of emerging powers (China, India, etc.), and the continuation of the old power (Russia), it is difficult for the West to have a great role in promoting the expansion of freedom world order.Especially in the internationalization of free and orderly Western internal and orderly.A more likely scene is the contraction of the West in the United States. The free world order has returned to the Westpulia order based on the sovereign state, that is, a diverse world order.

Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard University, recently proposed similar concepts.During the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union, US President Kennedy proposed the concept of the World SAFE for Persity that guarantees diversified coexistence. It advocates the peaceful coexistence of the United States and the Soviet Union.China -China Peace Coexistence.This concept has a similar spirit as the five principles of peace coexistence proposed by China in the 1950s, that is, respecting each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, non -infringement, non -interference in the internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.

However, from the perspective of realism, whether it can return and maintain the order of Westparia, which emphasizes the emphasis on sovereignty countries, still depends on the power comparison between countries.Any kind of world order is a reflection of the comparison of the power of the country.In terms of value, the expansion impulse of the free world order in the United States will not change. Only when it encounters the same power can it stop expansion.From this perspective, the struggle of international political power will never stop, and peace is the product of check -in between countries.

(The author is a professor at the National University of Singapore and East Asia)

The article only represents personal point of view