Liu Juti: After the G20 Osaka, Trump's position in Sino -US trade negotiation seemed to softened again.Harvard Professor Ellison, who was interviewed in January this year, believes that the possibility of reaching an agreement by the two sides before the end of the year cannot be greater.
After the G20 summit was held at the end of June, Trump's position on Sino -US trade negotiations seemed to soften again, saying that the two parties would return to the negotiating table.Is this a bit of acquaintance?After all, on December 1st last year in the Xi special meeting of G20, Argentina, a certain consensus obtained by the two parties seemed to laid the foundation for the subsequent agreement negotiations.
Four months later, the negotiations between China and the United States after a period of rose period, almost the final end of the final, another news came out: Trump issued a post on May 5th to restart the tariff threat, for a few days, for a few days.After that, the tariffs of Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion have increased from 10%to 25%.
It is conceivable that after several repeated tossing, China and the United States are currently relatively low -key on the restarting negotiations of Osaka G20.
I interviewed in mid -January this year. It is destined to be destined to: Can China and the United States avoid the trap of Xunlida?Harvard professor Graham Bull, who has attracted much attention; Ellison (Director of Belver's Science and International Affairs Center and the founding dean of the Kennedy Government College;He served as a member of the National Defense Policy Committee).At that time, he was optimistic that the Sino -US trade negotiations will end the first round before March 1, which will alleviate the threat to the United States' increase in tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion.
Professor Ellison was scheduled to be interviewed after participating in the eighth World Peace Forum in Beijing in mid -July, but he could not attend the forum as scheduled because of flights.I want to know the prediction expert's view on the current Sino -US relations situation, especially in the past few months, the controversy caused by the Hong Kong fugitive regulations and the enthusiastic Taiwan elections have added more uncertainty to the interaction between China and the United States.the elements of.
The following is the latest interview with Isen and I:
Liu Juti: Just when the US -China trade negotiation agreement seems to be in the case, Trump's attitude towards trade negotiations in early May has a sharp turn to turn on the US $ 200 billion Chinese goods from 10%to 10%to $ 10%to $ 10%to $ 10%to25%, are you surprised by this?
Ellison: Trump had been surprised before.In a round of negotiations (2018), US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He reached an agreement that will reduce bilateral trade imbalances in 2019 to reduce $ 70 billion.Both of them thought that they had reached an agreement and left the negotiating table.However, other members of the Trump team, especially the trade representative Leitzizer and the director of the Trade and Manufacturing Policy Office, Peter Bull; Navarro, destroyed the agreement.
Liu Juti: Both China and the United States have accused each other of the opponent.What do you think happened?
Ellison: Before the recent rounds of negotiations, Liu He and Litterzawa had identified a substantial agreement range.If their boss lets them complete the transaction, there are different specific solutions to choose from, and both sides can announce victory to their respective domestic audiences.
Although noise subsequently appeared, including public statements of both parties, if leaders of China and the United States choose to reach an agreement, the two countries may still reach an agreement.If they don't choose that, they will not reach an agreement.First of all, what are the priority considerations of the two leaders?For Trump: re -election; for ..., the agreement of the agreement or no agreement will affect the possibility of Trump's re -election.
Liu Juti: How does China respond to changes in the situation?Do you think they are optimistic about the current situation?
Iron: After consulting my best news in Washington and Beijing, my conclusion is that we are now in a state of chaos.The good news is that Zhong Shan, the Minister of Commerce, also joined the telephone negotiation of Liu He (negotiating with the United States), which shows that more and more economic officials have joined the negotiation team.But in fact, they did not determine the face -to -face meeting date, which showed that nothing would happen immediately.
But on a larger geopolitical chessboard, tariff conflict is a relatively small problem.The terms of its solution or delay will not significantly affect the rising Chinese competition between China and the dominant United States.Even though China makes concessions on every project of the Trump team's wish list, China's economic growth rate may continue to be more than twice that of the United States.
Liu Juti: Do you think it will be delayed to increase tariffs on another $ 325 billion in Chinese goods, will it weaken the advantages of the United States in trade negotiations?
Aireson: No, just like he decided to postpone the acquisition of additional tariffs, Trump can also decide to levy additional tariffs tomorrow.History shows that the fear of tariffs often has a greater impact than the facts of imposing tariffs.
Liu Juti: If you want to see your divination crystal ball again, how much do you think is the chance of reaching a short -term agreement by the end of the year?
Ellissen: The legendary catcher of the Yangji baseball team in New York; Bella once warned that he should not make predictions mdash; mdash; especially for future predictions.However, if I bet today, I believe that it is more likely to reach a transaction.Before the Osaka meeting, China made a major agricultural procurement. Trump's tweet claimed that ... promised to buy more, coupled with Trump's concessions on Huawei non -governmental security business, these are hopefulSigns.
The background here is that China studied how the United States successfully negotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement last year.They believe that the difference between the old North American free trade agreement and the new agreement is positive and negative 10%to 15%.If Trump calls the worst trade agreement into the best transaction, what you need is just that Trump can say so, then ... will be happy to cooperate.
[Author's Note: On the morning of July 11, Trump's east coastal time said: Mexico did well on the border, but what China disappointed was that they did not from us as great as they said.Farmers buy agricultural products.I hope they can start soon!The South China Morning Post quoted Chinese sources as saying that Trump was pressed at the Osaka Summit in June and asked him to buy more American agricultural products, but President Xi refused to make a firm commitment.According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 12, after the Osaka Summit, the agricultural products purchased from the United States have decreased.Bloomberg News quoted people familiar with the matter that before seeing the negotiations achieve substantial progress, China will not buy a large number of American agricultural products.]
Liu Juti: Faced with the overwhelming and overwhelming of the United States in trade negotiations, do you think that many Chinese officials who have advocated reform are now on the tough route of the party?
Ellison: With the competing competition from tariffs to high -tech to high -tech to the key levels of supply chain, investment, finance, research, etc., China ’s motivation and determination to seek self -reliance are also increasing.Because of this, it will make (China) have more advantages than Westernization reformists.
Liu Juti: Do you think the resistance of Hong Kong's opposition to fugitive regulations will have an impact on the Sino -US trade agreement?If so, how does it affect?
Ellissen: The recent action of the US government mdash; mdash; If the US Consular Consul General of the United States in Hong Kong and Macau, Tang Weikang publicly delivered a speech mdash; mdash; shows that the incident in Hong Kong is not comparable to the Trump administration.The way is important.
Liu Juti: Trump said that the U.S. government allows US companies to sell parts without national security concerns to Huawei, which partly alleviates the comprehensive suppression of Huawei, but there is still an extradition of Meng Wanzhou and two of the Huawei/Meng Wan.The issue of the federal lawsuit of the boat.How do you think it will develop?Do you think the United States is wise to deal with Huawei issues through a trade agreement?What kind of precedent will this start?
Ellison: If the United States aims to stimulate Chinese neural pain points, to confirm that the Chinese are about a worldSince the Ji of the Ji, the Westerners have a statement of humiliating and exploiting China with advanced technology, so it is difficult to imagine a more effective option to destroy Huawei, Huawei, a high -tech telecommunications champion of China.
The United States' actions to arrest Meng directly in Canada issued alarm on increasingly controversial interaction between China and the United States.Washington has launched a global suppression campaign against Huawei, but has not launched any American contest.Among the four major telecommunications equipment brands, the two are Chinese brands, none of them are American brands.In fact, although Huawei is banned from being used in the US 5G network, the remote rural market in the United States often depends on Huawei's equipment.
Now, the United States must decide what means to take to prevent a company that is closely related to Chinese national security agencies to provide Americans with 5G networks.If Huawei can provide 5G equipment to other countries at a cheaper price than non -Chinese products, how many countries will wait?
Liu Juti: No matter how the trade agreement is achieved, how do you think of the development of the technical war?Is it inevitable that China and the United States are decoupling?Is there a solution?
Aireson: The U.S. and China tariffs are sliding towards a wider economic war. Among them, leading technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence and quantum computing will become the battlefield.I am destined to have a battle in my book: Can China and the United States avoid Xunxidd's trap?It was written that when a rise of the rise threatened to replace a dominant power, the alarm bell should sound: the extreme danger in front.
As more and more Americans regard China as a threat to the security of the United States, this colored point affects all aspects of the relationship between the two countries, including scientific cooperation.When the US Department of Energy prohibits its scientists from participating in the Chinese talent solicitation plan, what does the Ministry of Energy say?
This operation is to protect the national security interests and scientific integrity in the United States.You either work for us or work for them.
